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First stage freezes are rare but not unheard of. In colder water a 2nd stage freezing can lead to a first stage also freezing. *ALL* equipment failiures are rare. That doesnt mean they wont happen.
Yes, they can happen, though I've done plenty of air sharing drills in water 30sand have never had a first stage freeze.... If you are diving in conditions where you are far enough from the surface that you cannot do a direct ascent and you are in such poor vis that you can't see your buddy who has somehow just disappeared in a wicked current, and your lights are so poor that you can't see the glow from your buddy in that terrible vis you should either be diving doubles or not doing the dive at all.
In any vis in any condition i like to give myself control over my own life and not blindly rely on someone else who may or may not be there, may or may not be up to the take and may or may not be totally reliable under pressure.
The words blindly rely prove the point that you have never dived in a squared away team. Once you have, you'll understand that a good teammate *will* be there. Of course, to be in a squared away team, you need to be a squared away teammate. It is a discipline that many are not either cut out for or simply choose not to undertake.
A redundant air source (suitable for the depth in question) gives an individual control over his own situation without relying on someone else. Thats never a bad thing.
Obviously there are circumstances where redundancy is necessary. I dive doubles on pretty much anything below 60-80 ft in cold water, which is pretty much everything these days. I haven't had a single tank on in several months.
The issues with pony bottles are numerous.....If you store them parked and off, you need to find, deploy, turn on, and clear the reg...all while you are freaking out because your regulator just blew up in your face or your just took your last breath. If you store it deployed and turned on, you might very well go to grab the reg and not have anything there, because unbeknownst to you, the reg has been leaking the entire dive and dumped your 20cft of 'redundancy' out. Additionally, if you are at all trained to dive with high-O2 deco mixes, the whole concept of fumbling around blindly for a reg and breathing it should seem absurd. It engrains habits that need to be 'forgotten' when you are carrying a deco mix. With doubles, the reaction is always the same....problem with the reg I'm breathing? Switch to the one on my neck, shutdown the post, notify buddy.
Once you've come to the conclusion that you need redundancy, the best option is doubles with a squared away dive team.