I think there have been some misunderstandings and maybe I can better clarify my position which I think is similar to that of the already mentioned Dulio Marcante, as I understand it.
It may be that the following reasoning is wrong and that the discussion is off topic (but not completely).
When I spoke about the freediver's best chances, I was not referring to the possibility of doing a free ascent after a "blow and go", after having emptied the lungs (to avoid over-distension). Although it may be sufficient for small depths, if we do a calculation and assume a "blow and go" from 30 meters, even if we empty the lungs, there are 1.2~1.5 liters of residual lung volume filled with air at 4 atmospheres that can be dangerous if brought to the surface.
And we all agree that in order to save your skin you must have a speed that is not excessive, let's say <18m/minute, but I would even say that the last 10 meters should be done at 10m/minute.
I went to get my PADI "open water diver" manual, 2013 edition and CESA is not taken into consideration for depths >9m.
This in my opinion leaves my question from a few days ago without an acceptable answer.
The reason I gave myself 5 years ago, when I got my certification is that, at the (not small) ascent rate of 18m/minute, 9m meters can be covered in 30 seconds.
Why 30 seconds? I note that the majority of people, who certainly have not had freediver training, have such an ability to tolerate CO2 that after only 30 seconds they feel the need to breathe. It is true that during the CESA you exhale weakly [the manual talks about actively exhaling air by vocalizing the sound "aaaah" to remove the compressed gas that is expanding], but the CO2 is continuing to accumulate in the lower part of the lungs and we know that it is the CO2 that triggers air hunger.
This means that if a CESA lasts much longer, on the order of more than a minute, if the diver does not have the ability to tolerate the CO2 that is accumulating, he will probably have a panic attack, far from the surface and there will be a failure, with probable death.
In essence this makes me consider a 20 or 30 meter CESA implausible for a scuba diver who does not also have freediving training.
This seems to me to be a problem (I would say not the only one, the other being the complete dependence on the BCD) for a modern scuba diver, while an "old diver" with freediving training should have a better chance in this context.