HalcyonDaze
Contributor
That may have been true before sub-launched cruise missiles. The trick is getting far enough away from where the missiles break the surface to remain undetected.
The military objective may not be to sink a carrier, only to make it stop hurting you for a period of time. Disabling a carrier puts the entire task force out of business. It is false economics to look at the cost and personnel on a carrier. You have to account for the entire task force, which probably includes some submarines. You have to wonder how sustainable the concept of a floating airport is. They are looking more like ironclads and battleships to me.
As Obsolete as a Battleship: Why Is the U.S. Navy Still Building Aircraft Carriers?
At some point, UAVs flown form half way around the world or weapons deployed from space will accomplish the mission with less risk, much faster mobilization, and lower investment. Interesting times.
I'm just a civvie, but one with an interest in history and I can't say I see things going that way anytime soon. I recall back in the late 1940s when Truman mothballed a big chunk of the USN's carrier fleet because the USAF was promising they could make armies and navies obsolete with B-36s and A-bombs. Then Korea happened and we realized our guys needed close air support and they needed it to come from some place closer than Japan that wasn't at risk of getting overrun.
Combined arms is always going to be the way to go in warfare; subs and missiles can do scary things but they're not going to replace everything a flattop can do. Carrier groups are not invincible; frankly I think one of the dumber things we do is drive them up the Strait of Hormuz within cannon-shot range of Iran every time someone in the Gulf cuts a loud fart. The idea behind a carrier is to keep it back where it can't easily get hit (or even be found in the first place; 4.5 acres of flight deck is awfully small in the open ocean) and still hit the enemy, and keep at it for months at a time. In the future that may require adding UCAVs and standoff missiles to carrier wings to keep the enemy at arm's length, and subs will become more important assets for kicking down the door and sanitizing areas. But until combat aviation itself is rendered entirely obsolete, I don't see carriers going away.