The government didn't have money before, now with huge tax cuts, where's it coming from? It's more than just this IVA tax I think.
The way I read it, the
crucerista fee will offset most or all of that loss. Here's a recent article:
Cozumel tendrá más recursos y beneficios fiscales, como nunca antes, se prevén ingresos que podrían alcanzar los mil mdp - Conexión Diario
The paragraph I am referring to says "Durante la reunión ... la gobernadora Mara Lezama tocó temas como el cobro de 42 dólares ... el cobro de 5 dólares que está firme y que se quedará en Cozumel, los avances en la oficina de pasaportes, en los avances en materia de seguridad."
If I understand that correctly, five dollars of that 42-dollar fee is fixed and it will remain in Cozumel ("se quedará en Cozumel").
It goes on in the next paragraph to say "Dejó muy claro que en el tema del cobro a cruceristas de cinco dólares, el recurso se queda en Cozumel y el gobierno de Quintana Roo pondrá otros cinco dólares. Se espera recaudar mil millones de pesos al año que será manejado de forma transparente a través de un Fideicomiso."
Billions of pesos! (Note that they do not say "billiones". "Mil Milliones" [one thousand millions] is how they say billions in Spanish.) If that's an accurate prediction, then it should offset the IVA. I say that because according to the
federal government of Mexico, the gross product of the island in 2023 was about $762M (US). 0.08×762M=60.96M, so they will lose about 61 million in tax revenue. But one billion pesos is about 50 million US. And she doesn't just say "mil millión". La señora specifically says "mil milliones" so we can assume it may be far more than 50 million US.
But the details are in the assumptions which were made. Her model probably assumes that traffic from cruise-ship passengers will not decline, and that their spending habits will not change much. That's a big assumption.
Personally, I detest the big
cruceros. I have never boarded one, although I have been on many boats. I also do not like being confused with their passengers and being subsequently hassled. (Although being of pale pink skin and yellow hair I am an easy target for identification as a foreigner in most of Mexico.) I also do not like the loud noises the big ships make and the view of the sea that they block when they are at port and I am in a low-rise hotel. Still, I understand that they do supply revenue to the people of the island. Noticias Cozumel describes it as "
Cozumeleños entre dos emociones". I think I can understand that. On the one hand, they are eager for lower taxes. On the other, they know that raising the entry fee on cruise passengers may limit the amount those cruisers are willing to spend locally.
In any case I am following this because we have ten days booked in Cozumel for January 2025. It will be interesting to see if diving, hotel, taxi, restaurants, etc., will respond quickly to the new regime of
Impuestos al valor agregado (IVA), or value-added tax (VAT), as we say in the US. I suspect that there will be a lag and the effects will not be realized for at least several months.