Keep eye on NHC, possible storms about a week out

[cozcharlie]

TD14 forecast to come slightly south of Coz as a strong tropical storm, with just below hurricane force winds.

If it stays at or below that forecast speed things wouldn't be too bad. The forecast winds aren't that strong and it is forecast to just move on through so duration isn't that long (unlike Wilma that went stationary for 72 hours with much stronger winds). That approach angle from the Southeast is probably reduces impacts to north part of the island (including town) since it means wind water/waves away from the West side of the island across the channel towards Playa.

If you have a Saturday flight there is a reasonable chance it gets cancelled at this point, would keep an eye out with airline. I figure most people know this, but a storm of this force shouldn't have too many lasting impacts as soon as weather clears (obviously would be wind and rain this weekend). If you have any travel plans past this weekend I wouldn't sweat it too much unless it strengths a lot beyond current forecast.

NHC wind forecast
[Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion]
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.1N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

 

[gopbroek]

Now the window is narrowing and the predictions become more fine tuned. Trackthetropics.com is another good resource.

 

[scubaNYC16]

Ugh no bueno for my Saturday 1230pm Cancun arrival. Take a turn please.

 

[Snoweman]

Ugh no bueno for my Saturday 1230pm Cancun arrival. Take a turn please.

Time to get out the Sharpie...

 

[scubaNYC16]

Time to get out the Sharpie...

Hahaaaa

 

[cozcharlie]

Not the bedtime reading I was hoping for. 11pm Eastern NHC forecast has it as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at landfall not that far south of here (Tulum general area by my eyeball). Evidently they placed the center a little further north and it will not pass over Honduras, which would have kept development in check for a little while. 75 mph is still manageable more or less, just fingers crossed it doesn't move much higher

 

[flyboy08]

That’s some warm waters it’ll be entering...let’s hope it veers northeast!

 

[DandyDon]

Ugh no bueno for my Saturday 1230pm Cancun arrival. Take a turn please.

I flew to Cozumel once expecting a hurricane to veer off, thinking I knew more than the experts. Two days later I escaped. It did veer south the day before it hit, but you never know. You're hoping to bag drag as it comes ashore? I bet your plane cancels. I was supposed to be there already but my travels fell apart, and now I am glad I am not.

 

[cozcharlie]

Ugh no bueno for my Saturday 1230pm Cancun arrival. Take a turn please.

Note they usually shut down ferry service well in advance of storms. I spent the night in Playa when Ike went up through the Yucatan Channel back in 2004 because I couldn't make the last 10 miles to Cozumel.

 

[scubaNYC16]

Note they usually shut down ferry service well in advance of storms. I spent the night in Playa when Ike went up through the Yucatan Channel back in 2004 because I couldn't make the last 10 miles to Cozumel.

Yup, flight will likely get cancelled. I was there last month for a week with perfect weather so can’t complain. I’m flexible and can reschedule.