Grand Cayman and Hurricane Ivan

[zf2nt]

If it's possible to go to Caymans on Monday, I might do that. What abt Cozumel/Playa del Carmen instead of La Paz? Think the Cozumel area is still too risky w/ Ivan?

This afternoon while waiting for the latest NHC advisory on Ivan, I stopped to read the story of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. That one had the lowest surface pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic or Caribbean--888mB. On this date in history, it was in almost the exact same place that Ivan is now. It raked the southern coast of Jamaica, then continued westward to the south of Grand Cayman (barely) before making landfall along the Yucatan penninsula. The ocean waves were estimated at 50'-100'. You ought to read the story of Gilbert before thinking of trucking off to Cozumel right about now!

I say this particularly in light of the NHC "Discussion" that came out with this latest NHC advisory. This one is date-stamped 5 p.m. AST on September 10. What I find curious is the following statement:
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK.

Say what? The current forecast track has the center of the storm moving about 28.4 miles to the east of my home on the southwest tip of Little Cayman. That's the same as saying 3.8 miles off the eastern edge of Cayman Brac. But is the above saying that even though the models are predicting the storm is likely to track more like Gilbert, over towards Grand Cayman and maybe then Cozumel, they are instead keeping the track to the north so that the people in Florida won't let their guard down???

Let's put it this way: just how sure you want to face this mother in Cozumel? And what's the high point there anyway, the upstairs bar at Carlos'?

 

[-hh]

This afternoon while waiting for the latest NHC advisory on Ivan, I stopped to read the story of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. That one had the lowest surface pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic or Caribbean--888mB. On this date in history, it was in almost the exact same place that Ivan is now. It raked the southern coast of Jamaica, then continued westward to the south of Grand Cayman (barely) before making landfall along the Yucatan penninsula. The ocean waves were estimated at 50'-100'. You ought to read the story of Gilbert before thinking of trucking off to Cozumel right about now!

Gilbert raked the Brac & LC a lot worse than Grand Cayman got it - - I have some photo's at home of photo's that Donna McLaughlin took in '88 (BTW, if anyone knows where she's at, I've been trying (poorly) to reach her to get permission to put some of these up on the web)...there were dive staff houses on the Brac that were at +15ft above sea level that were filled to the windowframes with coral rubble. At the resorts, the Divi lost all but the last 10ft of their dive dock, pilings and all, plus their over-the-water "Turtle Bar" vanished, plus all of their diveboats thrown ashore - - with their mooring anchors!! and hulled. If the wind hadn't been blowing ashore, they would now all be shipwrecks.

What I find curious is the following statement:
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK.

Say what? The current forecast track has the center of the storm moving about 28.4 miles to the east of my home on the southwest tip of Little Cayman. That's the same as saying 3.8 miles off the eastern edge of Cayman Brac. But is the above saying that even though the models are predicting the storm is likely to track more like Gilbert, over towards Grand Cayman and maybe then Cozumel, they are instead keeping the track to the north so that the people in Florida won't let their guard down???

I'll have to go read it, but I'll take a guess. What they're trying to not say is that whenever a hurricane plows over Jamacia, the actual track that the storm takes NEVER follows their models, so they really have no clue what its going to do.

What it does sound like they're trying to say is that despite what the model's saying, they have a hunch or belief that the storm's going to pass just east of the Brac, which means that the Brac doesn't get hit quite as hard as it would be hit if Ivan were to pass to its west (and closer to LC).

IMO, there's going to be major damage on the Brac. They're well inside the "64knot" winds and Divi's dock took some damage from the much weaker Hurricane Charley last month.

Let's put it this way: just how sure you want to face this mother in Cozumel? And what's the high point there anyway, the upstairs bar at Carlos'?

No, I wouldn't. But if I were in Cayman and had the choice of an evacuation flight to Coz or nothing, I'd go to Coz and then take another flight up to the USA.


Later,

-hh

 

[B.Goodwill]

Drew,

Are you going to a hurricane shelter for Ivan? We are not too sure what to do (not having been through this before,) i have to work, but we are debating whether or not to "deposit" my partner while i am at work, and then i would join her afterwards. Because Ivan is comming from the east, does it mean the east end will recieve the worst of the waves etc?

 

[caymancase]

I believe that Drew has left the island from a previous post.
More than likely North and West Sides will be affected the most. Then, after it travels by, South and East Sides.
We live a bit inland about 4-5 blocks in from South Sound and we're staying put. But our home is new and well made to withstand weather. We've prepared ahead of time by boarding up some of our lower windows in case of flying debris.
If you are concerned about where you live (shoreline?) and what your home can withstand then, by all means, head for a shelter. Better safe than sorry.

 

[B.Goodwill]

Hi There,

Drew obviousley has more sense than the rest of us! We live on Palm Heights Drive, so are worried about flooding more than anything else. I think we will go to a shelter, i am working from 3.00pm to 11.pm tommorow, so will check up on our place when i pass by.

 

[Ryan P]

Everyone in Cayman please be careful. Ivan is looking super scary now. Most of the computer models look to be putting it right over Grand Cayman (even though the national hurricane center path is to the east). It also looks like it could also be back to 160mph by that time.

 

[B.Goodwill]

Everyone in Cayman please be careful. Ivan is looking super scary now. Most of the computer models look to be putting it right over Grand Cayman (even though the national hurricane center path is to the east). It also looks like it could also be back to 160mph by that time.

How do you figure it is comming over Grand Cayman, and not to the east? If so do you have a spare learjet to fly us off island! Everyone is starting to get "brown pants" syndrome where i live on the island now. We now have heavy rain and the wind is picking up, it would appear Ivan will be with us before long. Whats more worrying is that someone told me it is going to be high tide at 8.00pm tonight, which really is not going to help things. We live by a canal, so are dreading the prospect of the whole place being flooded aswell as trashed.

 

[Ryan P]

I just did some googling on "computer model" + "ivan" and found some sites with the actual data. The hurricane center seems reluctant to move the path as fast as the models move.

Look at the 11am bulletin...the hurricane center now has it hitting Grand Cayman East End.

Sorry no lear...just someone expecting to move to Cayman in about 3 weeks.

 

[DI_Guy]

My daughter lives in Georgetown CI and I am worried... I hope IVAN takes it easy on everyone there.

Saying a few prayers here. be safe everyone

 

[dazedone]

Well, American Airlines just called and cancelled my flight to GCM on Monday. The offered me a full refund back to my credit card. Judging by the forecast and what has happened to Grenada and Jamaica, I doubt going to Cayman is a good idea for weeks to come. Gonna try to get over to Belize in a few weeks. I'll try Cayman next year when the reefs have recovered from the hurricane.. Oh well, I was really looking forward to it.

I'm not going to whine about missing a dive trip, I am more concerned about all the people that have been devistated by this storm. My thoughts and prayers go out to the citizens of the Cayman Islands, stay safe.