Future Directions: Where Is Diving Going?

[chillyinCanada]

I fell the term "new normal" to be one of the most dangerous combinations. It means that you should expect things to be different and just accept that without challenge.

This virus, and any after it, are not predictable or preventable. They are just a fact of life and have been happening for generations. No amount of changes will prevent this from happening again at some point. There is no "new normal" unless people bow down and allow it.

"new normal" is as dangerous and "shelter in place"....just using words to get compliance/acceptance by people that want to control the narrative to create a reality that shouldn't exist. Similar to saying "undocumented alien" instead of "illegal alien" or "intellectual" disability instead of "retarded" --- Calling someone Advanced or have and Advanced/Accelerated program for super intelligent is 110% fine but retarded is not for the opposite. It's all control.

***Anyone have a ladder I could borrow to get off this soapbox I climbed up on????

More likely to give you a bigger shovel

 

[chillyinCanada]

The “new normal” will last until immunity, natural or vaccine.

Heck, its not even lasting that long in the general community. North Carolina numbers are climbing and we are opening up more public venues. Push back has increased and precautions have decreased as we become accustomed to the deaths. The shock value is no longer there and until someone is directly effective by Covid 19 it is now just numbers on the screen/paper.

To me, it's become very important to find out just what the heck "recovered" means. What are the short term long term consequences to having been infected? Not everyone breezes through even if they live. It's time for another column on the charts or coloured line on the graphs.

 

[Eric Sedletzky]

I don’t think anyone really knows what effect this whole thing will have on modern society when it’s all said and done. 1918 was a completely different time with different social and economic instruments. It was a much simpler time. It was also a lot worse with deaths, but from all accounts it spiked much higher and blew through much quicker. It the case of
The current event, there is much more social control structure in place and way more instant information (or misinformation) is distributed. I think the way they are dragging this thing out in the half-assed fashion they’re doing is ridiculous. There’s a lot on conflicting protocols going on and many agencies and leaderships can’t get on the same page.
With the current climate and need for world wide trade and travel, there really is not much place to hide when it comes to things spreading. The world is becoming more and more homogenized.
What effect will all this will have on the diving community? There are much bigger things people will be worrying about other than going diving. There will be a drop off in participation for sure.
I think travel will be the most affected and take several years to return. People are not going to have the extra cash. Local diving will return the quickest since it’s a “backyard” activity and a nice distraction (when they finally open the coast!)
Gear sales? Slow at first but it will come back. It depends on the gear.
Gear service volume by shops will be relative to those who are active.
This is going to be tough on everyone, not just dive shops and divers.

 

[D_Fresh]

I agree with what you say about the "new normal". So what are we talking about here- a year or less for a vaccine? I saw on TV it could be ready at least for front line workers and then the most at risk people by January. I mean, they've found vaccines for all the other stuff--measles, small pox, on & on. Logic says that once everyone can get vaccinated everything goes back to the "old" normal. I assume the vaccine will be free in Canada. Elsewhere...?

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

 

[Rickk]

Overall I think that the direction of the impacts of this are clear, the magnitude of the impacts will depend on how long it takes to start to get to whatever will be normal.



Internet will be more important, we will do more on line learning instead of classes. Some universities have already announced all online for 2020/2021 academic year. Work from home will become more significant especially in the knowledge worker segment. It will be harder for companies to say it cannot work once it is proven and people become accustomed to it.



On line sales will become even greater, brick and mortar stores will pretty much disappear, especially in specialist niche markets like dive shops.



Travel will be much less common. Business travel will slow down as companies use virtual meetings more and more. People will be careful of the risks of being caught a long way from home so localized travel will be more common compared to long distance foreign vacations.



There will be a huge slow down in construction, more work from home will equal less need for new office space, highways and public transport. The need for new stores and malls will also decrease. There will be an increase in the infrastructure to support on line shipping, expanded internet capabilities and more distribution centers. As people work from home and commuting distance becomes less important people will move out of dense urban housing into more single family homes.



Thinks like gyms and theaters will start to disappear, people will build more home entertainment systems and rely less on mass entertainment.



For diving the tropical resort dive operation world will take a major hit. With less people traveling and the need to maintain a larger social distance restaurant capacity will have to drop by 50%, live abords will be almost non existent because of fears of being in close confinement for days with people from all over the world.



Local diving will become the norm, most diving will be close to home, people not living within a couple of hours drive of a dive site will not become divers, people with only access to cold water diving will not take up the sporty because of the increased difficulty of learning in cold water and the additional expense of having to buy a dry suit.



Now depending on if there are second or third waves and how long these take and how serious they are these impacts may change in magnitude and duration. I think that a serious third wave, if it happens will be late in 2021 or into 2022 and the impacts will take a decade to fade. Some like the fear of another pandemic will take a couple decades to fade.

Some impacts will not fade like the idea that someone would drive to an office an hour each way every day will seam as quaint as engineers using slide rules does today.



If a vaccine or a dependable treatment becomes available by early 2021, then these impacts will be minor and within 5 years we may not be able to tell the conditions apart from what might have been without the virus.

 

[Aquaviolator]

Overall I think that the direction of the impacts of this are clear, the magnitude of the impacts will depend on how long it takes to start to get to whatever will be normal.



Internet will be more important, we will do more on line learning instead of classes. Some universities have already announced all online for 2020/2021 academic year. Work from home will become more significant especially in the knowledge worker segment. It will be harder for companies to say it cannot work once it is proven and people become accustomed to it.



On line sales will become even greater, brick and mortar stores will pretty much disappear, especially in specialist niche markets like dive shops.



Travel will be much less common. Business travel will slow down as companies use virtual meetings more and more. People will be careful of the risks of being caught a long way from home so localized travel will be more common compared to long distance foreign vacations.



There will be a huge slow down in construction, more work from home will equal less need for new office space, highways and public transport. The need for new stores and malls will also decrease. There will be an increase in the infrastructure to support on line shipping, expanded internet capabilities and more distribution centers. As people work from home and commuting distance becomes less important people will move out of dense urban housing into more single family homes.



Thinks like gyms and theaters will start to disappear, people will build more home entertainment systems and rely less on mass entertainment.



For diving the tropical resort dive operation world will take a major hit. With less people traveling and the need to maintain a larger social distance restaurant capacity will have to drop by 50%, live abords will be almost non existent because of fears of being in close confinement for days with people from all over the world.



Local diving will become the norm, most diving will be close to home, people not living within a couple of hours drive of a dive site will not become divers, people with only access to cold water diving will not take up the sporty because of the increased difficulty of learning in cold water and the additional expense of having to buy a dry suit.



Now depending on if there are second or third waves and how long these take and how serious they are these impacts may change in magnitude and duration. I think that a serious third wave, if it happens will be late in 2021 or into 2022 and the impacts will take a decade to fade. Some like the fear of another pandemic will take a couple decades to fade.

Some impacts will not fade like the idea that someone would drive to an office an hour each way every day will seam as quaint as engineers using slide rules does today.



If a vaccine or a dependable treatment becomes available by early 2021, then these impacts will be minor and within 5 years we may not be able to tell the conditions apart from what might have been without the virus.

Most of this is already proving false in Florida. Gyms are busy, construction is booming, and there's more tourists on the beachside than even expected.

 

[scubadada]

Most of this is already proving false in Florida. Gyms are busy, construction is booming, and there's more tourists on the beachside than even expected.

Yes, I'm hoping that works out OK we'll see. I plan on visiting next week, for the first time since early March. Other than flying and the boats, I do not plan on much interaction with people.

 

[Ana]

Well I don't know what we're the rules for dive charters in SE Florida but at least in the Pompano area this morning there were many charter boats going out about half full. Passing or being passed by them in the intracoastal I saw zero masks and no space in between them... for sure no 6 feet apart.
There were tons of boats out there, not surprising since the weather was great and the visibility quite good too. Talking to my husband we felt grateful we didn't have to play the charter game ... We haven't stopped diving because we can do it without getting close to people , I'd be dieing if I had to wait this long but not sure if I would board a boat with strangers, forget about a rental reg or anything.
Hopefully all those people I saw this morning enjoyed their dive and didn't get (or give) the Rona.

 

[scubadada]

Well I don't know what we're the rules for dive charters in SE Florida but at least in the Pompano area this morning there were many charter boats going out about half full. Passing or being passed by them in the intracoastal I saw zero masks and no space in between them... for sure no 6 feet apart.
There were tons of boats out there, not surprising since the weather was great and the visibility quite good too. Talking to my husband we felt grateful we didn't have to play the charter game ... We haven't stopped diving because we can do it without getting close to people , I'd be dieing if I had to wait this long but not sure if I would board a boat with strangers, forget about a rental reg or anything.
Hopefully all those people I saw this morning enjoyed their dive and didn't get (or give) the Rona.

The operators I use, say they are wearing masks when not diving and taking no more than a half load, with an open slot between divers. We'll see, I'll report back

 

[Marie13]

My local charter op's Chicago boat (Hammond, IN marina) was just put in the water today. Charters start next weekend. Boat holds 16, they've reduced it to 8 max for who knows how long. Stupid plague. Unknown when the Milwaukee (6 pack) and Lake Huron (16 diver, probably will be reduced to 8, as well) boats will get in the water.

Boats only need minimum 4 to run anyway. I'm on the boat next Sunday afternoon.

We'll have to wear some sort of face covering when not diving. I know the boat will be cleaned between charters. Not sure of what other new policies they might have. Wish there was an online waiver.