I just completed a PADI online member forum, the online version of the meetings held throughout the world to keep professionals up to date with lots of things related to their work. One section dealt with safety, and they gave examples of situations that might arise in your work and how you should deal with them. They said all the situations they described were based on real events, but had been altered to make them actually hypothetical. One of their cases was almost exactly like this one, except it had a happy ending. Since the forum content was created before this incident, this incident could not have been the one upon which it was based.
In the situation they describe, a diver in a group signals a desire to go to the surface and heads toward the surface with his buddy. Once the diver is near the surface, the buddy goes back down to join the group and so never sees the buddy to the surface. When the group surfaces later, they are surprised to find the diver is not on the boat. In their commentary, PADI said that if a diver thumbs the dive and ascends early, a buddy should stay with the diver all the way to safety on the surface, especially if you do not know why the buddy wanted to end the dive. They talked about the fact that divers ascending to the surface alone has been a factor in a number of accidents over the years. (I can immediately think of three such incidents myself.)
I had a dive this past autumn in which we were doing a planned dive to 280 feet. As we began our descent next to an ascent line, the lead diver stopped at about 150 feet and gave the hand signal that indicated a problem. He paused for a moment and then gave the thumb. The rest of us repeated the sign and began to ascend with him next to the line. Then he suddenly grabbed the line, which was surprising, since there was normally no need to do so in a lake with no current. I was at that point right in front of him, and sensing a problem, I got a firm grip on him as he continued to ascend. The line ends at the edge of the shore on a slope, and he gripped it until we were both lying in the mud on the edge of the lake. It turned out that he must have gotten a tiny perforation in his ear drum on a dive a couple of weeks before when he had had trouble equalizing, and he had started to get vertigo on the descent as water entered the ear. As he ascended, that little bit of vertigo turned into a swirling, terrifying madness. He did not indicate a serious problem when he gave the thumb, so it would have been very easy for the rest of the team to let him go to the surface alone while we continued the dive.