Diving: the future

[Nemrod]

Rebreathers - miniaturization and improved electronics, pre-packaged "standard" cartridges, modularization, automatic monitoring may bring rebreathers into wider use but compressed gas, SCUBA, will remain the dominant means of exploring the underwater world for most divers.

Sidemounted tanks - I seriously doubt this ever becomes anything more than the fad it already is outside of certain technical diving circles.

Long hoses - Long hoses are great in overheads with narrow passages, beyond that here is no advantage to them. Technical divers will continue to favor them, the vast majority of the SCUBA world will not. A fanatical and very small vocal minority will continue to harass and harangue those who do not.

BP/W - BP/wing will have a solid following, maybe as much as 30 percent of the diving population, however, restricted travel requirements may impact diving travel and we may see a move eventually toward a "universal" BC that the diver rents at the destination or is included in the package. In any case, the majority of divers will continue with vests and jackets not unlike those we use today but which may have automatic systems--electronic UP and Down controls and auto surface inflation.

Carbon fiber tanks -Composite tanks are not a good solution for SCUBA. They are too light and buoyant and damage prone. Not likely.

HUD dive computers - probably will remain a Geek Squad sort of thing.

Wireless SPGs - Probably will be integrated into a modular computer system that will monitor all dive parameters including deco and will provide instant BT, deco time projections at current status. And, people will still argue over a mechanical SPG backup because the computers will still fail.

DIN valves - Probably no more so than today

Helitrox - probably not

Underwater talking devices - solo divers do not need to talk to themselves. I doubt these will become popular or widespread in use.

Underwater GPS - GPS signals will not penetrate water. The laws of physics are unlikely to change in the next 30 years therefore the answer is a big fat NO. Underwater nav systems using surface derived data via short range sonic telemetry (search, rescue, body recovery teams) or inertial guidance with solid state sensors and gyros may become available. The compass will remain king.

It got me wondering two unrelated thoughts: First, in 2030, will we see weird retro "vintage" divers who insist on using jacket-style BCDs and analogue depth gauges?

No, vintage era equipment divers will use double hose regulators and eschew BCs and electronics just as they do today. Post 1973 equipment, when obsolete or worn out will find it's way to the landfill, pre 73 equipment will be cherished more than ever for the simplicity and rugged individualism it represents, then, now and thrity years from now.

N

 

[muddiver]

I agree with Walter on most points with a couple of extra thoughts:

1. Fiber wrap tanks will probably never take off, there are too many issues with water intrusion under the wrap and having to distroy the tank by cutting the wrap off to do an efficient inspection/hydro test. Same issue with fire department SCBA cylinders.

2. There is no such thing as an underwater GPS because of the physics of radio waves and water. No one is going to want to drag around a floating surface antenna with a cable anymore than they want to drag around a dive flag on a line. Some company might come up with an acustic wireless transmitter that can triagulate your position realitve to a fixed becon but not unlike the commercial inbdustry, I doubt anyone will really find a use for it. There are acustic homing systems for commercial diving, but they never really got much use that I know of.

I do think that rebreathers are going to make more inroads into mainstream recreational diving. As the cost of components goes down and ease of maintainence progresses they will become more desirable. I know one shop that is promoting rebreathers in their basic SCUBA classes and moving students to them as soon as they have their Nitrox certifications. They are a really good sales base and if the shop promotes bring them in for maintainence like car dealers do, I think that will be the next big push to float the diving sales industry.

Edit: Darn, I type too slow.

I also agree that if there is any sea level rise, there will be a number of really cool dive spost near shore.

 

[DCBC]

1. Diver certification will be easier; accomplished completely on-line. DM's will top the sport diving leadership and will be responsible for shepherding all divers.

2. The LDS will cease to exist in its current form, as equipment purchase will be done directly with the manufacturer or through on-line superstores.

3. Centers will be established that will provide mixed-gas refills and service existing equipment. Although new regulators may be developed that are equipped with replaceable plastic modules that the diver can easily replace without the need of a service technician.

4. Technical diving will grow in a similar way as sport diving did in the 90's with certifications much easier to achieve. Eventually this too will be absorbed by companies which streamline the system, so as to make training available for the non-swimmer with on-line training support.

5. Technical diving will be redefined and depth levels will increase. Perhaps the mystery of perfluorocarbon will be solved, allowing for the breathing of an oxygen-rich liquid. The market will be small at first, as a result of an initial lack of on-line training.

6. Electronic canister rebreathers will become common place. These will be totally automated with user replaceable sensors and other parts which will be available on-line.

7. New materials will be developed in designer colors. HUDs and new equipment that's not currently imagined will come onto the market.

Regardless of what happens, it will be a brave new world. Current diving practices will be archaic and the values of today's standards totally rejected.

 

[vladimir]

People will have stopped diving by 2030. There will be nothing left to see because the Lion Fish will have eaten everything!

I dunno about the Lion Fish, but between runoff, industrial pollution and overharvesting, you might be right that there will be nothing left to look at ... or at least little enough to make the investment worthwhile.

I'll check the "nothing left to see" box too. Recreational reef diving will take place in aquaria designed for that purpose. Coral will be a ceramic/polymer blend almost indistinguishable from the real thing. All the fish with teeth or venom will be separated from the divers by artfully placed glass partitions, creating the illusion that they're right there in the same tank with you. It might seem a little steep to pay $100 to dive in what amounts to a quarry stocked with fish, but cheap compared to the price of a liveaboard to a natural reef devoid of fish. It'll be a lot more convenient, with aquaria in all the major cities, and comfortable waiting rooms to hydrate in while you wait for your time slot. Midnight dives will become popular with college-aged divers and nitrous-oxide will be the gas of choice.

 

[Chous]

I didn't understand about DIN valves. They are not real right now?
I saw a lot of divers in Russia and 100% of them use DIN tanks and regs.
Also i can say that i did some dives with 4 351PSI (300BAR) pressure tank and they was ok. It's very popular use small HP tanks in Russia.
(They also use by firemans and we buy them in Firestations)

 

[Blackwood]

I'm just waiting for that little mouthpiece re-breather the Jedi used in the Star Wars prequels.

 

[mike_s]

I'm surprised so many clicked on Carbon Fiber tanks.

I just don't see carbon fiber tanks being put into use that much. yeah they are lighter... but that's the problem. they are WAY to buoyant. You'd have to wear so much lead to offset them.

some might say "well they might go up to 5000psi". Well that's great and all, but in some locations I can't even get a LDS that knows enough "bank management" to be able to fill to 3500psi.

 

[mike_s]

I didn't understand about DIN valves. They are not real right now?
I saw a lot of divers in Russia and 100% of them use DIN tanks and regs.
Also i can say that i did some dives with 4 351PSI (300BAR) pressure tank and they was ok. It's very popular use small HP tanks in Russia.
(They also use by firemans and we buy them in Firestations)

DIN is available now... however, 90% of the tanks in the US, especially rental tanks, are YOKE valves.

I would have said 98% of the tanks were yoke 3-5 years ago, but the "convertible DIN/Yoke" valve that has gained in popularity has changed that some.


but the basic fact is that most tanks used in instruction are the AL80 with a yoke valve.. and that's the most popular (cheapest) tank for rental use and on most dive charters in vacation destinations.

 

[CalgaryDF]

I don't think any of these will really become more mainstream especially among recreational divers. Rebreathers and helium may become more common in tech as the prices come down, but these technologies don't seem to provide a lot of additonal worth to rec divers.

 

[Blackwood]

...helium may become more common in tech as the prices come down

I think that, if anything, the cost of helium is going to increase (as global supply decreases).