The Abilene Paradox is a management concept that shows how a group can come to consensus on a plan that every member opposes. It is based on a supposedly true story in which a family is gathered on a sweltering day with nothing to do. The patriarch says they could go to Abilene, and after some hesitation, they all agree on it. They crowd into a car (no air-conditioning), drive to Abilene (where they still have nothing to do), and drive back. The patriarch had only meant it as a wild suggestion and really didn't want to do it, but others interpreted it as desire. Eventually they came to an agreement to go to Abilene because no one wanted to hurt anyone's feelings by disagreeing. The Abilene Paradox occurs when everyone in a group mistakenly thinks the rest of the group is in agreement and does not want to raise their objections because of a fear of rocking the boat.
I was part of a group of divers last week, diving with an operation with a policy of starting the ascent when a diver reaches 700 PSI. For the most part, we were delighted with the dives. The problems came as the dives went on toward their ends. On those 10 dives, we averaged 88 minutes of dive time. On some of those dives, that was great, because we had something interesting to see the entire time. On most, though, at the end we were drifting in open water, sometimes high over the top of the coral below, sometimes over sand flats, for what seemed like an eternity. On those last dives, I felt a great sense of relief when the DM finally signaled that we would begin the ascent.
I suspect I was not alone. I suspect every one of us would have gladly spent the last 10 minutes of those dives back on the boat, but we couldn’t. We each knew that if we decided we had had enough and signaled the desire to go up, then the dive would have ended, and everyone else would have had to go up, too. We did not want to be the one to end the dive for everyone else just because we were totally bored.
In hindsight, I think we should have talked it out on the boat. I should have had the courage to speak up and tell the DM that if the only purpose of drifting over sand is to maximize gas usage, I would prefer to be on the boat, and I bet we all would have agreed. That is how you avoid the Abilene Paradox. Individuals must be willing to speak up and voice objections. Hopefully, I will have such courage next time.
I was part of a group of divers last week, diving with an operation with a policy of starting the ascent when a diver reaches 700 PSI. For the most part, we were delighted with the dives. The problems came as the dives went on toward their ends. On those 10 dives, we averaged 88 minutes of dive time. On some of those dives, that was great, because we had something interesting to see the entire time. On most, though, at the end we were drifting in open water, sometimes high over the top of the coral below, sometimes over sand flats, for what seemed like an eternity. On those last dives, I felt a great sense of relief when the DM finally signaled that we would begin the ascent.
I suspect I was not alone. I suspect every one of us would have gladly spent the last 10 minutes of those dives back on the boat, but we couldn’t. We each knew that if we decided we had had enough and signaled the desire to go up, then the dive would have ended, and everyone else would have had to go up, too. We did not want to be the one to end the dive for everyone else just because we were totally bored.
In hindsight, I think we should have talked it out on the boat. I should have had the courage to speak up and tell the DM that if the only purpose of drifting over sand is to maximize gas usage, I would prefer to be on the boat, and I bet we all would have agreed. That is how you avoid the Abilene Paradox. Individuals must be willing to speak up and voice objections. Hopefully, I will have such courage next time.
