Cozumel - For the Last Time?

[Joe-Diver]

We haven't seen the worst of it yet, and likely won't for another year or so. The airlines typically buy their fuel in bulk under contract so they haven't yet, or are just now starting, to buy at these much higher prices. It's only a matter of time before these nice low $400 round trips to Cozumel are gone and it's $1600+ there and back. Add in all the increased cost of doing business on an island and well....the original point of the thread is that these fun $899 (air, hotel, diving) long weekends will be history and it'll be $2500+ for the same trip, or even more.

I wrote this after seeing a news interview with an airline exec....he was talking about the high price of oil and how it's soon going to dramatically affect the cost of flying. He said at these prices the business model of volume air travel will no longer be viable and not only will we lose airlines, but air service to upwards of 200 cities will be removed.

Yeah, doom and gloom I know....I feel better after taking the Hog out for a couple hours last night...and I hope I'm wrong about all this, but I just don't see how. Sorry 'bout the buzzkill. Seems to me the writing is n the wall......

 

[Joe-Diver]

Oh yeah...he said the airlines will spend 61 Billion on fuel this year, more than 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 combined.

 

[RonFrank]

China is REALLY messing up the prices! I will not attempt to predict the future, but it does not look good. China is NOT shrinking, and they are NOT backing off petroleum based technology.

Airfare to Coz has doubled in the past few months from Denver. Frontier used to fly into/out of Coz on Saturdays, Sundays, and Wednesdays (I think). It does not matter what week day because the bottom line is that is gone, and they now only fly in/out on Saturdays.

We are considering trying to get to Coz (via Cancun) on the cheap later in the year, but it's a crap shoot to determine what the prices maybe at that time. Right now I think one can still fly to Cancun for approx $200, but that may change, and soon. Then one has the pleasure of crossing the pond.

These oil prices REALLY suck unless one owns a lot of oil! Bush is doing absolutely nothing that I am aware of... other than burn our oil in a war over oil (among other things)!

The airlines have been in trouble for a long time, but managing for the most part. They may not be able to pull out of this without drastically increasing pricing, and reducing flights.

The near future is NOT looking too rosy. Time for new technology, but as to jet engines, I have no idea if they have anything that can power such a vehicle that is not explosive!

 

[deco_martini]

Airlines are coping a few ways.
1. decreased cruising speed (to save fuel)
2. canceling charity flights (unprofitable routes get canned)
3. less headcount

Delta has 55k employees. 55k. They have offered 4000 severance packages and all have had people take them. Still, 55,000 employees seems like an HQ heavy airline.

4. retired planes

older less fuel efficient planes are being retired from airline fleets much faster

5. less airlines

Now why is that important? Well, if you have less airlines and less unprofitable flights being flown, this means there is less jet fuel being consumed overall which means demand for this particular petroleum byproduct goes down and so in theory should its price. Airlines who were only in business because the price of oil was kept artificially low under the rate of inflation did not have a sustainable business model. Its probably best they are gone.

 

[redacted]

So just how bad is the drive from TX to COZ? At $3/gal for PEMEX, it might at least be affordable. I got a call last week from Fiesta Americana with some pretty interesting offers for the rest of the year. At least someone is trying to respond.

 

[k-valve]

So just how bad is the drive from TX to COZ? At $3/gal for PEMEX, it might at least be affordable. I got a call last week from Fiesta Americana with some pretty interesting offers for the rest of the year. At least someone is trying to respond.

Zinc and I drove down to Rio Verde and back last winter. I thought the roads were pretty darn good for the most part. Of course, that's probably a little less than 1/2 the way to Cancun from Austin. It took us a couple of days, but we had some trouble crossing the border and stopped in Real de Catorce.

I'd imagine you were looking at a 3-day drive to Cancun (you'd need one of those 007 type vehicles to make it all the way to Coz) if you weren't sight seeing on your way there. I'd just recommend staying on the toll roads as much as possible. They're in better shape, safer and most times more direct.

Plan well for a trip like that. Everytime something weird would happen (and plenty did) Brandon and I would just look at each other and say, "This is Mexico." That pretty much all there was to say.

I love Mexico and had a great time on that trip with Zinc. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. If I had the time I'd drive all the way to the Yucatan too. It's a great country with super people...just a little different from what we're used to.