Covid19 and liveaboard cancellations?

[d^2b]

Aggressor now issue vouchers for trips up to april 11

http://aggressor.com/pages/special-message

 

[O-ring]

Aggressor now issue vouchers for trips up to april 11

http://aggressor.com/pages/special-message

Hmm...that is encouraging and makes me want to keep my June reservation in the hopes that they will do the right thing if the timeline extends to then. It's a big leap of faith though..

 

[tursiops]

Hmm...that is encouraging and makes me want to keep my June reservation in the hopes that they will do the right thing if the timeline extends to then. It's a big leap of faith though..

At least it says this:
We will update this timeline if the restrictions are not lifted by then.

 

[bshort4]

Still waiting for a reply from Liveaboard.com who said they would contact All Star Liveaboards who owns the Stella Maris in the Philippines and see if they can get me a 100% refund or a credit to be used in the future--not really holding out much hope but appreciate that at least they are doing a little begging on my behalf. All Star Liveaboards website doesn't mention a thing about the virus and is still trying to book customers like the world is turning like normal. I have until April 26th to still be in the window to receive a 50% refund on my booking and depending on what they find out for me I may end up just taking the 50% and cut my losses. My airline ticket may be a total wash too unless Asiana cancels my flight to Manila which I think is a good possibility but it doesn't fly out of LA until May 23rd so I'll still need to play the waiting game. The situation in the Philippines seems to change on a daily basis and all my friends there have no clue as to what will happen day to day. They live about 35 miles south of Manila in Laguna and today they said all jeepneys, trikes, and buses are banned from running--no way to get anywhere unless you have your own transportation.

 

[martincohn]

Check this out - COVID-19: An Update from Explorer Ventures Fleet

All I saw was show me the $$$!

 

[tursiops]

Anybody hear anything from Aggressor yet? I've got about 5 days to make the 60% refund window or take my chances that things get back to normal (ok, normal enough for me to go) by June.

You can treat this as a sequential probability problem.
If you cancel now, the most you lose is 40%, whether the trip goes or not and no matter how the LOB might treat a refund if the trip is cancelled.

If you stay the course, say the probability of the trip going is 40%, and of it being cancelled is 60%
If it goes, you lose 0%.
But if it is cancelled, then the next pair of probabilities is whether the LOB if flexible with its cancellation policies or not; it is Aggressor, so let's say there is a 30% chance they are flexible and you lose 0%, but there is a 70% chance they are NOT flexible and then you 100%.
So the path to losing 100% has the following probabilities along it: 60x70=42%. The two paths to losing 0% have the probabilities 40% (trip goes) and the other (trip doesn't go) is 60x30=18%.

If you cancel now you definitely lose 40%.
If you stay the course, the most-likely path is 42% (lose everything) and the other paths (lose nothing) are 18% and 40%. The sum of the two lose-nothing paths is 58%. Not bad.

Or, said differently, there are three possible paths if you don't cancel:
A = trip goes
B = trip doesn't go, and LOB is very flexible
C = trip doesn't go, and LOB is not at all flexible.
The relevant probabilities are:
PT1 = trip goes, PT2 = trip doesn't go (PT1+PT2=100%)
PL1= LOB flexible, PL2 = LOB not flexible (PL1+PL2=100%)
So the three paths have this probability of occurring:
A = PT1
B = PT2 x PL1
C= PT2 x PL2
Examples:
(a) 50-50 chance on all probabilities
A = 50% (lose nothing)
B = 50 x 50 = 25% (lose nothing)
C = 50 x 50 = 25% )lose everything)
So the most likely path is A, and you lose nothing. there is only once chance is 4 that you lose everything.
Your gamble is cancel now, and lose 40%, or stay the course and have one chance in 4 of losing everything.
(b) suppose you think there is a 30% chance of the trip happening, and 70% of it being cancelled, and only a 40% chance that the LOB will be flexible on its returns policy, thus 60% chance they will screw you if they can.
A = 30%
B = 70 x 40 = 28%
C = 70 x 60 = 42%
Now Path C is the most likely, and there is a 42% chance you'll lose everything if you stay the course.

You can play with the numbers by guessing at some probabilities that the trip will be cancelled (I'm guessing that is pretty high), and guessing at the probabilities that the LOB will not be generous.

it is not hard to come to the conclusion that this is a classic gambler's choice: take a definite 40% loss, or gamble with probably high probability that you will lose everything.....but there is a small chance you'll not lose anything. Or the opposite! Play with the numbers.

 

[Dive and Cruise]

Still waiting for a reply from Liveaboard.com who said they would contact All Star Liveaboards who owns the Stella Maris in the Philippines and see if they can get me a 100% refund or a credit to be used in the future--not really holding out much hope but appreciate that at least they are doing a little begging on my behalf. All Star Liveaboards website doesn't mention a thing about the virus and is still trying to book customers like the world is turning like normal. I have until April 26th to still be in the window to receive a 50% refund on my booking and depending on what they find out for me I may end up just taking the 50% and cut my losses. My airline ticket may be a total wash too unless Asiana cancels my flight to Manila which I think is a good possibility but it doesn't fly out of LA until May 23rd so I'll still need to play the waiting game. The situation in the Philippines seems to change on a daily basis and all my friends there have no clue as to what will happen day to day. They live about 35 miles south of Manila in Laguna and today they said all jeepneys, trikes, and buses are banned from running--no way to get anywhere unless you have your own transportation.

The Philippine government closed the Philippines several days ago and introduced a myriad of internal travel restrictions as well. So you should be able to rescheduling your reservation, just give a bit more patience, i think you should receive update from Liveaboard.com soon.

 

[O-ring]

You can treat this as a sequential probability problem.
If you cancel now, the most you lose is 40%, whether the trip goes or not and no matter how the LOB might treat a refund if the trip is cancelled.

If you stay the course, say the probability of the trip going is 40%, and of it being cancelled is 60%
If it goes, you lose 0%.
But if it is cancelled, then the next pair of probabilities is whether the LOB if flexible with its cancellation policies or not; it is Aggressor, so let's say there is a 30% chance they are flexible and you lose 0%, but there is a 70% chance they are NOT flexible and then you 100%.
So the path to losing 100% has the following probabilities along it: 60x70=42%. The two paths to losing 0% have the probabilities 40% (trip goes) and the other (trip doesn't go) is 60x30=18%.

If you cancel now you definitely lose 40%.
If you stay the course, the most-likely path is 42% (lose everything) and the other paths (lose nothing) are 18% and 40%. The sum of the two lose-nothing paths is 58%. Not bad.

Or, said differently, there are three possible paths if you don't cancel:
A = trip goes
B = trip doesn't go, and LOB is very flexible
C = trip doesn't go, and LOB is not at all flexible.
The relevant probabilities are:
PT1 = trip goes, PT2 = trip doesn't go (PT1+PT2=100%)
PL1= LOB flexible, PL2 = LOB not flexible (PL1+PL2=100%)
So the three paths have this probability of occurring:
A = PT1
B = PT2 x PL1
C= PT2 x PL2
Examples:
(a) 50-50 chance on all probabilities
A = 50% (lose nothing)
B = 50 x 50 = 25% (lose nothing)
C = 50 x 50 = 25% )lose everything)
So the most likely path is A, and you lose nothing. there is only once chance is 4 that you lose everything.
Your gamble is cancel now, and lose 40%, or stay the course and have one chance in 4 of losing everything.
(b) suppose you think there is a 30% chance of the trip happening, and 70% of it being cancelled, and only a 40% chance that the LOB will be flexible on its returns policy, thus 60% chance they will screw you if they can.
A = 30%
B = 70 x 40 = 28%
C = 70 x 60 = 42%
Now Path C is the most likely, and there is a 42% chance you'll lose everything if you stay the course.

You can play with the numbers by guessing at some probabilities that the trip will be cancelled (I'm guessing that is pretty high), and guessing at the probabilities that the LOB will not be generous.

it is not hard to come to the conclusion that this is a classic gambler's choice: take a definite 40% loss, or gamble with probably high probability that you will lose everything.....but there is a small chance you'll not lose anything. Or the opposite! Play with the numbers.

Excellent! Unfortunately P(A) where A = not getting wet is 100% if I cancel so I am inclined to trust the LOB and roll the dice. Probably not the smartest decision from a quantitative perspective, but given they have shown some flexibility in recent posts and my desire to dive I think that's where I am landing as of today.

 

[tursiops]

Excellent! Unfortunately P(A) where A = not getting wet is 100% if I cancel so I am inclined to trust the LOB and roll the dice. Probably not the smartest decision from a quantitative perspective, but given they have shown some flexibility in recent posts and my desire to dive I think that's where I am landing as of today.

I'd make the same decision.

 

[O-ring]

I'd make the same decision.

Thanks for the analysis and confirmation.

With a little bit of communication and flexibility divers and LOBs could really help each other weather this storm. They don't know it yet, but I've got 2 more trips planned with them over the next 6-12 months, but I am hesitant to book them right now due to all the coronavirus issues and their questionable flexibility. I'd have no problem stepping up and petting the pony and paying them all in advance now to give them a small injection of working capital, but they need to work with us a bit so that isn't such a risky proposition.