Kaho'olawe will never be opened up to charter diving (see bottom quote). There remains the possibility that private boat users may be able to dive Kaho'olawe's near shore waters, but that possibility is remote because it would probably require placement of moorings by the Commission and they have no money. Anchoring in waters shallow enough to dive will probably never be permitted.
KIRC Ocean Management Plan (1997):3.1.2 Levels of Interaction for Different Activities
The potential for damage and tragedy caused by UXO is proportional to the level of interaction associated with the type of activity and also the frequency of the activity expected in different areas. The following list describes the general kinds of activities, with their associated levels of interaction, which are expected to take place in the KIR. The activities are ranked by decreasing probability of interaction with UXO.
4. Non-invasive activities: These activities include scuba and snorkel diving without bottom contact and boating. (4th out of 4 Different Activities)
3.1.3 Effects on Life and Property
In the formulation of policies regarding the regulation of the above activities in the KIR waters and along the coastline, it is important to have some assessment of the possible consequences of detonating UXO accidentally. Given the wide diversity of ordnance and the more than fifty years over which it was used on the island, it is not possible to assign quantitative probabilities to the likelihood of interaction with, detonation of, or extent of damage caused by UXO. However, based upon the general characteristics known for the military high explosives to be expected, it is possible to describe possible results should full detonation occur.
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The danger of damage caused by shrapnel is much less in water, because water is much denser than air and will rapidly slow projectiles caused by a blast. Underwater, however, the liability of damage from the explosive shock wave is much higher. In air, much of the blast energy is converted to heat through compression of air in the advancing pressure wave. Water is a much more efficient transporting medium for pressure waves than air, and thus underwater UXO detonation will have more far-reaching effects than detonation in air.
Considering the above, it is possible to infer general outcomes for detonation of UXO through the kinds of activities assumed to take place in the KIR waters, as follows:
3. Anchoring: If a boat is less than 240 feet from the anchor when it detonates a 100 lb. charge or 750 feet when it detonates a 1,000 lb. charge, then significant damage to the boat might be expected. Because the high-pressure wave crest associated with an explosion is followed by a low-pressure trough, a second risk to boats is loosening or ejection of through-hull fittings, possibly leading to uncontrollable leakage.
4. Non-invasive activities: Given the basic assumption of this scenario, i.e., that UXO will require some significant physical impact for detonation, these activities should be very unlikely to cause any detonation. (4th out of 4 Effects on Life and Property)
KIRC Strategic Goals (2009-2013):Key Factors
In developing its strategic priorities, the Commission acknowledges the following:
By state law, commercial uses of the Reserve are banned. (12th out of 12 Key Factors)
Strategic Goals 2009 - 2013
To prepare for the transition of the Reserve to the future Native Hawaiian sovereign entity. (8th out of 8 Strategic Goals, AND the last words of this document)