I don’t do probability estimates.
I am neither a statistician nor an actuary so my probability estimates may not be correct to even one decimal place, nevertheless I find that ball park figures assist me to think of the situation. Let me elaborate on some of the probability estimates that I think about.
Probability that a diver will be involved in a boat seperation incident and SAR is called: 0.2%
1% (probability of being involved in a boat seperation incident in your lifetime) x 20% (probability of not being found in the initial search resulting in a call to SAR) = 0.2%. The probability of SAR finding you if you do not have a PLB or MRG is probably nearer 0% than it is to 100%. Therefore this approximates the probability that you will be floating in the ocean thinking, "I can see you searching for me, but you can't see me."
Probability that a diver with an electronic beacon is involved in a boat seperation incident in which SAR is called and the electronic beacon fails: 0.002%
0.2% (from above) x 1% (probability that the electronic beacon fails when activated) = 0.002%. I assume that the probability of being found when you have a PLB is 100%, and when you have the MRG is 99.999%. Essentially, if you have either of the two electronic beacons, you will be found. Therefore the probability of 0.002% approximates the probability that you will not be found because you are in a boat seperation incident, SAR has been called, but your beacon has failed. In this situation, you will also be thinking, "I can see you searching for me, but you can't see me."
If you have both the PLB and the MRG, this probability diminishes to 0.00002% because of the redundancy factor when you have two electronic beacons.
I may have inaccuracies and errors in the above calculations, but this does not really matter. They are ball park estimates to help me think about the situation. To me, the estimates tell me that every diver should get at least one of the two electronic beacons. If you dive remote third world locations where SAR may not get to you within 24 hours, then having both a PLB and MRG may be desirable because they have different characteristics that are highly complementary in such a situation.