bad news for coral lovers

[bermudaskink]

Boogie711 once bubbled...

Bermudaskink - I have to really object to how you're treating Fred here.

.... just because we disagree doesn't mean you need to resort to personal attacks.

It's sadly predictable that when pointed out with facts you choose to disagree with, that you would get personal instead of debating the topic.

I'm disappointed in you. I thought you were a better person than that.

How hypocritical of you? All of yours and Fred's posts involve some degree of personal attack. You called my opinions " defeatist and wrong". How nice of you!

I am sorry if you feel I have taken it to another level. Perhaps I was less subtlely patronising and more accusative in my last post. But don't try and insist that you and Fred were being all polite and nice.

I am equally dissapointed in you for trying to isolate me for being "rude".

ut:

The debate has come to a grinding halt as far as I am concerned. Others are welcome to join in. But I've said my bit and I've provided cites (which is more than either of you have done!). You can argue it all you like

Sorry Fred if you are upset with me. But somehow I doubt I have managed to burst your bubble.

Pdoege - I agree with you

 

[OceanusDC]

Thanks Pdoege for the help in finding the $. This is Alan. I am glad you enjoyed the presentation the other day. I will be giving another presentation on Monday the 8th at 7PM at the High Jackers restaurant at the Flagler County Airport on Rt 100 here in Palm Coast. This presentation will have slides showing the reef I built in Mustique back in 2000. That was the reef that was featured in National Geographic in the Sept 2001 issue. You are more then welcome to attend as is anyone else interested in proactive coral restoration. It is a meeting of the Flagler County Dive Club. Thanks again,
Alan

 

[pdoege]

This thread is too hot, I am working on the funding angle. I'll send you a PM.

Peter

 

[drbill]

Since coral reefs are not present in my temperate water home, I am not current on coral bleaching and reef deterioration.

It is a basic principle in biogeography that as climatic conditions change, the distributions of various species will change accordingly. If climate change is occuring (as I'm sure it is), the distribution of coral reefs should also (as they have in past geologic time).

With global warming we may find that coral reefs will develop in areas where temperatures are currently too low to permit this. Of course such a shift also requires that the zooxanthellae within them can tolerate the shift as well. Does anyone know if there are studies that predict or exhibit this?

I don't know to what extent global warming is caused by natural or anthropogenic causes. One concern of human-induced global warming would be the rate of change which may be too rapid for easy adjustment throuigh dispersal and colonization.

Again, I think we must find a way (perhaps through better models as FredT suggested) to incorporate more of the variables and tweeze the human and natural components out to asses their relative contribution.

Likewise as bermudaskink posted initially, we need to find ways to reduce human impacts on the reef (and other ecosystems) including limiting our personal production of greenhouse gasses, diving appropriately on coral reefs, etc.

Perhaps in 50 years (if I can still dive!) I'll be studying early coral reef development off Catalina.

Dr. Bill

 

[Wyno]

bermudaskink once bubbled...
Fred.

Thanks for your reply.

I think it is sad that you have managed to convince yourself that your beliefs have any kind of foundations when so many perfectly respectable scientists are saying otherwise.

Most of these scientists are not tree hugging hippies like me and take their field very seriuosly and would not could not "leave out" huge bits of the story to suit themselves.

Of course you have the right to your opinion, but other people are reading these posts and I am trying to raise awareness about a problem and provide some small solutions and here's you, trying to tell us to put our feet up till it's to late. So I do have to push my original argument, because IMO, such a great deal is at stake here!

I would never base my understanding of coral reef biology on what I only see when diving.

In addition to diving regularly in Bermuda, on the Great Barrier Reef, the Maldives, and in the Caribbean. I have taken a post graduate course in coral reef ecology, and am currently writing a doctoral thesis. I have worked at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, volunteered for NOAA in Woods Hole, have performed environmental impact assesments for the Bermuda Minisrty of Works and Engineering for the effects of the construction of ferry terminals on marine benthic communties, have attended various lectures on climate change and coral reef biology at international conservation conferences, and worked along side some of the top coral reef scientists at Columbia University in New York.

These are the foundations with which I base my knowledge and opinions on.

Other things could be causing global warming.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1026375.stm


Even scientist cannot agree what is causing the global warming.

 

[pdoege]

Quote:
Even scientist cannot agree what is causing the global warming.

This is a vast misrepresentation of the current scientific thinking and of the scientific process in general.

To recap global warming:
1) The earth is warming
2) The warming is now at or higher than the temperatures that during the last interglacial period
3) The rate of change of the temperature indicates that we are in a "abrupt event"
4) The rate of change that we are seeing requires human-induced variability combined with natural variability
5) Fossil records indicate that we are quickly entering a climate similar to the run present during the Cretaceous.

To recap science:
There is no monolithic "science". The very nature of science is that as theories evolve and are tested, the scientific consensus will change.

The more data that has been collected, the less change there will be over time.

There are always some number of scientists who are behind the curve and some that are ahead.

So you will always be able to find some guy claiming that global warming isn't happening. Or that global warming is caused by some bizarre phenomena that no one else has thought of. While this makes for interesting reading, the correct approach is to examine the consensus as a whole.

It should be noted that sometimes, very rarely, there is a maverick scientist who is, in fact, correct. The last case that I am aware of was an Australian scientist who correctly surmised that stomach ulcers were pathogenic in nature. I'm sure that there has been a later one.

To recap the situation that we are in:

You may be curious about the affects of the last glaciation. Afterall, how bad could it possibly be? So we lose some fish, and we get reefs off of Catalina.

Well, North America (the breadbasket of the world, and where I live) was covered by an ice sheet 6,000 feet thick. So, all the descendants of all the people living in NA will either migrate south or die. If you or your geographical area depend on food grown in NA, well, good luck.

Notice that the Cretaceous was about 65 million years ago. Humans didn't exist back then. We were not designed to survive in that environment. Hopefully we'll learn to manage.

So we really are considering some serious things here. The last time humans were in this situation, we didn't do so well. See the "World Population" link below.

Peter

Documentation for the above post:
Global Warming recap:
http://einstein.uab.es/vrull/monographic/gwcauses_paleoclim.htm
Science recap:
http://www.physics.brocku.ca/etc/cargo_cult_science.html
Situation recap:
Ice sheet thickness and glaciation effects
http://www.ontarioarchaeology.on.ca/oas/summary/post.htm
World Population (look under "Invention of Agriculture")
http://fire.biol.wwu.edu/trent/alles/World_Population.pdf