I am agreeing with ID on this one , why even leave port?? Why take the chance ?? I desperately hope not just for the money.......the lives just were not worth it...........
Butch
eace:
Butch
eace:
Appropriate place for this question........
- Thread starter Iguana Don
- Start date
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In the first place, the forecast put the storm on top of Belize City, so getting the hell out of there was the thing to do. Too late to run north, (and running north earlier would have been in the face of a forecast putting the boat in the storm's forecast track) so a run south was prudent under the circumstances at the time the decision was made. Big Creek was a well known and well used santuary - and had the forecast held would have been *the* thing to do.
Hurricanes are never totally predictable - the way this one developed, its survival across the "hurricane graveyard" and its interaction with a front that came further south than forecast caused the storm's sudden dramatic strengthening and held it south, trapping the folks in Big Creek who believed they had done the most prudent thing under the circumstances.
I have reviewed the forecasts leading up to this disaster and have reached the conclusion that had I been there, I'd likely have been trapped too. And that's why I just steer clear at this time of year.
As for having passengers on board, my bet is that they arrived in Belize on the last flight in - or at least showed up on the dock after the last flight out had left - there were no hotel rooms to be had in Belize City, where an evacuation order was underway anyway, and with the forecast having the storm coming directly at Belize City the captain made the decision to embark his pax and head south for the back side of the storm.
If any of you absolutely insist on flinging blame about, then it lies on those who made the decision to continue on to Belize in the first place with a hurricane bearing down on the country. Everyone else, from the boat's captain to the weather bureau, was doing the absolute best they could with the information they had. But it wasn't good enough.
Did I mention I don't go to the Caribbean this time of year?
Rick
Hurricanes are never totally predictable - the way this one developed, its survival across the "hurricane graveyard" and its interaction with a front that came further south than forecast caused the storm's sudden dramatic strengthening and held it south, trapping the folks in Big Creek who believed they had done the most prudent thing under the circumstances.
I have reviewed the forecasts leading up to this disaster and have reached the conclusion that had I been there, I'd likely have been trapped too. And that's why I just steer clear at this time of year.
As for having passengers on board, my bet is that they arrived in Belize on the last flight in - or at least showed up on the dock after the last flight out had left - there were no hotel rooms to be had in Belize City, where an evacuation order was underway anyway, and with the forecast having the storm coming directly at Belize City the captain made the decision to embark his pax and head south for the back side of the storm.
If any of you absolutely insist on flinging blame about, then it lies on those who made the decision to continue on to Belize in the first place with a hurricane bearing down on the country. Everyone else, from the boat's captain to the weather bureau, was doing the absolute best they could with the information they had. But it wasn't good enough.
Did I mention I don't go to the Caribbean this time of year?
Rick
Folks,
It is always difficult living in the wake of tragedy. We will not likely know all the facts of this event for a while. But we can learn from its example.
IG, I suspect you know the answer to your question: human falibility. I further suspect the pleasure motive coupled with lack of experience drove the divers. And profit motive coupled with a false sense of security drove the captain...maybe even bravado. He might have been through similar experiences before and survived. When it comes to decision making, the following is sometimes useful to ponder:
(1) Good decision, good result
(2) Good decision, bad result
(3) Bad decision, bad result
(4) Bad decision, good result
Sometimes we do (4) and think it was (1) and that can lead to disaster. I suspect some of that was involved.
At any rate, I will stick with my approach: avoid the Caribbean during peak hurricane season. Since Rick seems to have independantly come to the same conclusion, it can't be all bad!
And my heart goes out to all the friends and family involved in this tragic event: we can only imagine the pain they are feeling and the sorrow that will color their lives for a long,long time.
Joewr
It is always difficult living in the wake of tragedy. We will not likely know all the facts of this event for a while. But we can learn from its example.
IG, I suspect you know the answer to your question: human falibility. I further suspect the pleasure motive coupled with lack of experience drove the divers. And profit motive coupled with a false sense of security drove the captain...maybe even bravado. He might have been through similar experiences before and survived. When it comes to decision making, the following is sometimes useful to ponder:
(1) Good decision, good result
(2) Good decision, bad result
(3) Bad decision, bad result
(4) Bad decision, good result
Sometimes we do (4) and think it was (1) and that can lead to disaster. I suspect some of that was involved.
At any rate, I will stick with my approach: avoid the Caribbean during peak hurricane season. Since Rick seems to have independantly come to the same conclusion, it can't be all bad!
And my heart goes out to all the friends and family involved in this tragic event: we can only imagine the pain they are feeling and the sorrow that will color their lives for a long,long time.
Joewr
FinMeister
Guest
SubMariner,
Just curious, were you holed up at Royal Island during Andrew?
Warren
Just curious, were you holed up at Royal Island during Andrew?
Warren
Warren: Ah... so Royal Island rings a bell for you? How do you know it?
We were in the Bahamas AFTER Andrew (96-98) so that's when we wound up @ Royal Island. For *10 days* due to weather!
In summary, all I can say is thank gawd some of those moorings are still in good condition! (We dove on them & checked them out thoroghly of course BEFORE tying off.)
Rick: right on about being "out of the Hurricane Belt" during "The Season". Most insurance companies won't even cover you during that time of the year unless you are below 12 degrees lat., in North America, or "up on the hard" (in storage".
~SubMariner~
We were in the Bahamas AFTER Andrew (96-98) so that's when we wound up @ Royal Island. For *10 days* due to weather!
In summary, all I can say is thank gawd some of those moorings are still in good condition! (We dove on them & checked them out thoroghly of course BEFORE tying off.)
Rick: right on about being "out of the Hurricane Belt" during "The Season". Most insurance companies won't even cover you during that time of the year unless you are below 12 degrees lat., in North America, or "up on the hard" (in storage".
~SubMariner~
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