Appropriate place for this question........

[WetDane]

I have to agree with Rick -
I grew up y the sea in Denmark and always had to hear about Germans (no sea experience) being swept by rip currents and stuff...

The sea is very hard to predict, being a captain in these cases can be more of a question of making an educated guess - but a hurricane, or any other storm for that matter does not follow highway signs so what you consider a good safe move may turn into a deathtrap.

Until all details are clear I would like to suggest that we offer all the support possible to the Captain, crew and passengers - I have no doubt that the captain did his best to try to save people and material, when the storm change direction he was most likely trapped with nowhere to go.

ID -
nobody get's in the way of these things on purpose - as Rick has pointed out - they tried to get out of the way, but the sea is not some little playground and **** happens. (besides - boats go a lot slower than cars - not like you can run as well).

Fishkiller -
Unless you are a qualified expert, I have a hard time accepting judgement against any captains - out running the Gloria might have looked like a really good idea at the time compared to the options...

and DivingGal makes a very good point - there are other places in the Carib that does not get hit...

Besides - don't let freak storms dictate where you go - I was stranded in Miami 2 years ago when we thought the city was about to loose it's roof - so sometimes you don't get to the objective of your trip and you may have to walk away from something - that's called living in the real world - if you don't want to accept that this can happen at any given time - the Discovery channel is probably as far as you want to go in exploration...

Anyway,
Ya'll have a great day of diving - I will keep the people and families in my prayers and hope that we all can dive without any incidents like this for the remainder of our lives.
Be safe.

Cheers,
Big T

 

[donooo]

I lived in the Sea of Cortez for 5 years. You watch these things form and decide what to do. The most important fact is that "you" decide to be there. Sometimes they might hit, sometimes they change directions, sometimes they loose energy. I won't second guess any decisions that are taken other then the one to be there. The reason those vacations get "cheap" is because most people don't want to go there at that time. The people that go there save some money and live dangerously. The people that are not hurt or suffer no damage have a thrilling and exciting story to tell. Think about it the next time you take your loved ones on a "cheap" vacation. They're trusting your judgement.

No amount of electronics will cover for "bad luck " or "stupid".

don O

 

[syruss32]

If you all read the posts about the accident and follow the links and read what actually happened you will know why they were where they were, why they were not offloaded to shore, and what actually happened to cause this.

From the 10 or so articles I have read on this a lot of things went wrong. They were up a river in a port known as a safe port for sheltering bad weather as were many other boats. They broke loose from their moorings jst to wind and surge, then capsized.

When in a situation like this the captain and crew are just as much at the hands of mother nature as the guests.

It is terrible for this to have happened and a shame that the safe port didn't shelter them enough, and that there was no hotel to put the people in. But all of these factors don't make the Captain a bad captain, it just makes mother nature prove that we are at her whims, not our own.

Not knowing how fast this blew in an all maybe they could have gotten somewhere better, but then again maybe other boats would have been lost had they all tried that? But we just don't know. All we do know is that 22 divers have lost their lives and it is terrible.

Lets hope that is the last loss we ever hear of in diving, but I think it won't be unfortunately!

 

[Tavi]

Originally posted by syruss32
I will be in the Caribbean at the end of this month. I hope that no hurricanes decide to blow around St. Thomas while I am there. I have been looking forward to this trip for a year and a half. I would hate to see it ruined by weather!

So everyone pray for nice weather there at the end of the month and the first 4 days of next month!

[red]Make that the first 10 days of next month.[/red]

The wife and I will be in Grand Bahama from Oct.27 through Nov.10. This is my favorite time of year to go. The water is still warm, and the air temps just perfect. Our instructor there says we should try coming during the summer, He says it's either "absolutely gorgeous, or hellfire and brimstone". We think November is just fine.

Have a Great trip Syruss!!!

Tavi

 

[joewr]

Folks,

"In God we trust: all others, please come with data."

In that spirit, here is some of the data for hurricanes and tropical storms in the Caribbean. The data show that the vast majority of such natural phenomena occur from late July through October. If I had broken out the hurricanes(H)from the tropical storms(TS), the data would show an even greater concentration in those months.

The data are displayed as follows:

Year: total H and TS//H and TS from late July through October

1995: 19//16
1996: 15//13
1997: 10//8
1998: 15//14
1999: 14//12
2000: 14//14

Thus, 77 out of 87 hurricanes and tropical storms occur in that window. That is nearly 90%. If you make the window mid-July to early November, there is close to 0 probability that you will encounter a hurricane.

My conclusion has been to avoid going to that area in that window. However, I agree that it is just a matter of probablity, not certainty. But, at least the probability will be on your side.

Joewr...weather archivist to the Board...at no additional cost!

 

[Rick Murchison]

... and did I mention that I do not go to the Caribbean between 15 July and 1 November?...
Rick

 

[100days-a-year]

Fla has mandatory evaq during storm season that can extend out 24-48 hrs prior to expected landfall.Last year on our annual pilgramage to the Keys for Lobster season we were under an evaq order.I live in Fla(also in the Bermuda triangle)You just can't believe all the mis-conception you hear about these storms.Here in the U.S. we have real-time weather available that would have made this accident less likely.If that info was available to the dive operation and they chose to do what they did,I'd say they could be found liable.Due to the size of the country and the topography ,I would have aborted the trip instead of allowing myself to be led in harms way.

 

[Iguana Don]

From watching the Weather Channel and following a hurricane you generally get several days notice of where it is, where it's going. Why would you be in the general path if you have this much notice. I don't understand this.

 

[Bob]

I didn't didn't express my thoughts well in my last post. The captain had to know a major storm was bearing down on Belize. That was no secret. This storm was forecast to make landfall at Belize City and continue northward. Forecasting the direction and speed of movement of hurricaines such as this is an inexact science at best. As Rick has pointed out, the captain made a decision to run south out of harms way. The storm was going north, so he went south. Things went sour, the storm turned south and the ship was trapped at Big Creek. The rest is history.
In hindsight, this decision cost twenty lives. Now, back to my original question, why would they put out to sea with a cat 3 storm building to a cat 4 storm bearing down on them, and not that far away no less? Keep in mind that storms like this seldom go where they are forecast to go. When forecasting where a storm will make landfall, most meterologist's will give a disclaimer and say, it could come ashore 100 miles north,south,east,west, of where we're predicting it to make landfall. That pretty much covers Belize. They change direction quickly and without warning. Knowing this, should it have been a suprise to anyone involved that the storm suddenly changed direction? My view is the entire trip should have been aborted. The captain should never left port. He should have been leading a safari inland. The farther inland you get, the better the chance for surival.
As for the shelters, I used some bad information, Rick is right, there aren't any at Big Creek. I apologise. I wasn't trying to mislead or seem more knowledgable than I am. In the future I will certainly be more careful in using what I'm told.
I'm saddned by the loss of life. It didn't have to happen.:tree:Bob

 

[SubMariner]

Pearce & I spent 2 years aboard a 43' sailboat in the Bahamas running a sail/dive charter. Frequently we were 100s of miles from inhabited land: only 29 of the over 700 islands in the chain are populated. So it was not uncommon to be literally "in the middle of nowhere" with no one to rely upon except ourselves.

Although we did go through some nasty weather, we were fortunate never to have run into a hurricane. However, during our journeys we found a few souls who had been caught in such danger. The only couple that *did* stay aboard during a bad blow stated in no uncertain terms that it had been a very bad decision; in future they would find shelter ashore.

In light of this information from the "been there, done that, barely stayed alive to get the t-shirt" crowd, we decided that in the event we were to find ourselves in this perilous position, we would find the nearest hurricane hole or similar shelter, secure the boat as best we could, and get the hell off.

Unless the vessel is the size of a Carnival (et al) cruise ship, it's basically a mobile home on water. Given what happens to trailer parks during tornadoes, would you REALLY rather stay there than someplace more secure during catastrophic weather?

Simply put, evacuation inland during a hurricane is the prudent choice. Staying aboard a boat is not. The fact that the Aggressor "next door" didn't suffer the same fate is only pure luck and does not validate the poor decision not to withdraw to land.

IMHO,it doesn't make any difference where you stay, as long as it's NOT ON THE BOAT.

Meanwhile, about tracking weather: a good sailor will watch weather. Hurricanes don't just "sneak up on you". On our boat we used Weatherfax, local weather Nets and NOAA, all off the SSB (shortwave). Larger, more expensive vessels usually have radar and Sat Weather available to them.

Whatever the case, with the exception of sudden blow-ups like waterspouts and the like, you should know what is happening around you and what your "weather window" should be. For example: our sailboat had a max hullspeed of only 8.5 knots. Obviously, there was no way we could "outrun" truly bad weather! So we were almost fanatical about watching weather and making sure we were well clear of anything nasty, or in a well-sheltered anchorage if something was going to hit. (Remind me to tell you the Royal Island story one day. )

All that being said, this doesn't diminish the fact that it was a tragedy about the people on that boat. I just happen to think it was avoidable.

~SubMariner~

P.S: Both Pearce & I have USCG 100 Ton Ships Masters w sailing endorsement & Bahamian Masters papers. And have been through our own (smaller) version of "The Perfect Storm".