3 storms headed for Caribbean: Anna, Bill, I-90

[DandyDon]

Posted in the Storm forum, but just in case some travel without checking there or the weather sites. If anyone is traveling this week, you may want to watch these possible risks....

Click maps to enlarge

Details at Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

* * ​

 

[Doc]

Don~ keep an eye on them for us, but most of these storms track to the North...

It could always mean rain, though, and lots of it.

 

[mike_s]

right now looks like it's headed into the gulf of mexico

 

[deeper thoughts]

As usual the Keys are in the cone of hate.

 

[mike_s]

As usual the Keys are in the cone of hate.

well I'm betting those Satellite dishes on the Vandenberg will be gone in a few days.

 

[DandyDon]

I posted this in the Caribbean forum. Or so I thot. I have asked it to be moved there.

Eh, I'm editing out my mistakes based on my previous thinking that this was in the Caribbean forum at the time. CCVman has them tho.

 

[Doc]

No, I still don't want to kiss your Costco ring, but you keep hammering at my participation if you wish. Is usually caca attacks, but fun to shoot you down.

I'm glad I can provide you some joy in your life.

You're the one that posted this in the Central American Forum. The projected paths are not for Central America.

If you re-read my post, I was thanking you.

Is that what you said before Wilma turned on Cozumel, or any of the others that veered south of Cuba into the west side of the Caribbean.

I encourage all readers to study that dotted line map I posted above. You will see that Cozumel is substantially North of the line, well within the historical path of hurricane tracks. So yes, I said it both before and after Wilma.

 

[DandyDon]

As I said in edit when I noticed: I posted this in the Caribbean forum. Or so I thot. I have asked it to be moved there. It could have been my oops in forum selection as they are so close on my UserCP.

Edit: got a kind Mod to move it.

If you re-read my post, I was thanking you.

I did. You didn't. I guess you misquote yourself too...?

I do wish you'd replace that pic with one 640 wide.

 

[DandyDon]

Looks like 90 has died out and things look better for the islands all the way. Sorry about misposting in the CA forum originally; wish CCVman had just pointed that mistake out instead...

From Dr. Masters....

Ana near death

The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Storm Ana, and have found that the storm is very disorganized, and may not survive another day. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's very rapid forward motion of 20 - 25 mph has stretched out the storm's circulation from circular to elliptical. This non-circular flow around the center has made the heavy thunderstorm activity less organized, and it may be difficult for the storm to hold together much longer. The outer rain showers from Ana are now on radar out of Martinique.

Nearly all of the computer models forecast Ana will dissipate over the next two days. If there is anything left of the storm by the time it encounters the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, that should finish Ana off. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.

​

Tropical Storm Bill continues strengthening

Tropical Storm Bill continues to gather strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bill has developed a core region of heavy thunderstorms that should be fairly impervious to the dry Saharan air to its northwest, and the storm should be able to start building an eyewall tonight.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range for the next three days. With Sea Surface Temperatures at 27.5°C, and ocean heat content sharply increasing 2 - 3 days from now, Bill should be able to intensify to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. At that time, some increasing shear may limit further intensification.

The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET model, which was resisting forecasting the northward turn, has now joined the other models in its latest 12Z run. The main drama with Bill this week will be to see how close it passes to Bermuda. Several models have Bill passing within 200 miles of Bermuda on Saturday. It is too early to be confident that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast.

​