2024 Florida storms

[PBcatfish]

87 degree water near Tampa & the big bend has me concerned. A storm passing over that water will have a lot of energy to draw upon -

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...but for the moment, the coast remains clear.

 

[tomfcrist]

Tropical weather seasonal predictions are habitually wrong. When they say it should be a light year, we get slammed. When they say it will be a heavy year, we see little.

That’s a generalization of course…even a broken clock is right twice a day

 

[PBcatfish]

That is exactly why I worded my preceding post the way that I did rather than say something like - oh boy, this is going to be a doosey. These guys are going to get slammed.

I don't know if a storm will pass that way or not. I do know that warm water fuels the big storms & the water in the areas I indicated is very warm right now. Anything about 82F (28C) is enough to fuel a hurricane. 87 is a lot. If a slow moving storm goes that way, it may find a lot of fuel right there at the potential landfall. It could be a real catastrophe. Or nothing could happen. Or anything in between.

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future (Yogi Berra quote)

Anyone who listens to weathermen or politicians, is likely to be disappointed. (Me)

 

[PBcatfish]

Invest 92L may be coming across lake O from the west as a cat 2ish storm. Current forecasts show peak sustained strength as high as 95 knots and a little over 8" of rain near Tampa with a little over 5" of rain for Palm beach county.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_gefs_latest.png

It's still early in the storm's development so forecasts will likely change in the next day or two.

 

[Johnoly]

It's still early in the storm's development so forecasts will likely change

Gotta be careful when watching just the GFS model because it takes ALOT of human tweaking to eliminate bad blocks of data. And they only do that M>F at the 18Z model run. Otherwise it's garbage in, then garbage out and no one filters it prior to publication. We REALLY see this effect on the wave models when they forecast 6ft waves right next to 2ft waves and you can clearly see the corrupt blocks right next to each other.

This morning, The Euro is still saying tropical storm but GFS is now up to another major Cat3 at 950mb. Just my personal opinion, I like the Euro for intensity (mb) and I like the GFS for track accuracy. In either case we always look for ' alignment & agreement ' which usually happens at 72hrs of the spot you are looking at on the map. Below is the Saturday morning GFS 06z run at Cat 3 strength. Check lists & Prep is best.