Future aka New Normal

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Hi Downunderwater Dan,

Here is another article that agrees with your quoted statement that SARS-Cov-2 may be mutating and weakening as SARS-Cov-1 did. I have been reading for months that this is the lifecycle of similar viruses.

Doctors around world say COVID-19 may be losing its potency, becoming less deadly

Case counts keep going up but deaths are on a steady decline. The viral loads in patients are decreasing.
The article you cited refers to what publicly announced here in Italy by two top medical doctors, but provides an explanation which is exactly the opposite of the one given by the two Italian doctors at the TV: they said that there is no evidence of genetic mutations of the virus, and that the reduction of its damaging potential seems to be due exactly as the effect of the social distancing and lockdown.
It is a clinical effect, not a genetic modification. During the terrible days in March, each patient was receiving an abundant viral load being infected by dozens of other infected people, resulting in severe medical problems. Now people get infected by just a single spreader, and with much smaller viral load, resulting in a milder sickness.
Both doctors praised the severe lockdown as the cause of the current much better situation.
The article suggests the opposite, that the reduction in clinical effects is due to genetic modifications, and that it had occurred the same also without social distancing and lockdown.
It is exactly NOT what the two top Italian doctors said at the TV.
Of course no one knows really what's happened, and I remain very sceptic of everything people says at the TV or in these pseudo-scientific articles.
I learned to be sceptic even of what I read in peer-reviewed scientific journals!
 
Of course no one knows really what's happened, and I remain very sceptic of everything people says at the TV or in these pseudo-scientific articles.
I learned to be sceptic even of what I read in peer-reviewed scientific journals!

You and I both agree on your quoted text.

'"The virus may be changing," he said earlier this week, adding that fewer people in the Pittsburgh area are contracting the disease, and the infections themselves appear weaker.' (Quote from linked article from post #170)

The article I linked was very measured. Please keep in mind that this forum in not a scientific forum. This is an informal setting. Parsing informal mistakes using formal scientific standards or definitions does not add to the discussion. My use of the word "mutated" was clinically not correct as you mentioned. Again, this is not a scientific community; therefore, we grant leeway to people who make such mistakes.

I enjoy reading your posts because you are very intelligent, very well educated, and very experienced in your professional vocation, which includes diving.

To iterate my point regarding the OP's question: The healthy amongst us need to get on with their lives while vulnerable/at risk individuals need to lock-down. They need to quarantine themselves and wait for herd immunity. Herd immunity can only be achieved if the healthy amongst us get on with our lives. This includes Indonesia. Just my opinion. I am not speaking for any scientific community. 60 years of living life has trained me to be skeptical of so called experts. Follow the money; where do the experts get their money?

cheers Angelo,
m²v2
 
The link is two weeks old. Has anything changed in the guidance?

Current Situation in Bali for all travelers

Update 5 June 2020 17:00

From a health and public safety perspective, the island has emerged relatively unscathed – for reasons that continue to baffle infectious disease experts. By early June, there had been only five deaths and 510 confirmed infections, two-thirds of whom have fully recovered, according to coronavirus tallying resource Worldometer

No date has been set to lift temporary travel restrictions that prevent tourists from visiting Bali. Reports that suggest otherwise are false, according to Bali’s Ngurah Rai Immigration Office and the island’s tourism board.

Update 1 June 2020 7:30

The Indonesian Ministry of Transport prepares to enter the new normal with flights to and from Bali's I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport as per Ministerial Decree No. 25 of 2020 on Transportation Control.

Bali had been making preparations to enter the new normal era by following the provisions and official health protocols

During the new normal era, passengers looking to enter Bali through the International Airport should hold a document that shows negative results for COVID-19 from a swab test based on the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR).

Every aircraft passenger must fulfill the requirements submitted by the Task Force for the Acceleration of COVID-19 Handling, as stipulated in Circular Letter Number 5 of 2020 on the Amendment to Circular Letter Number 4 of 2020 on the Criteria for Restricting Travel for Accelerating the Handling of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) or hereinafter referred to as SE Number 5 of 2020," he expounded.
 
60 years of living life has trained me to be skeptical of so called experts. Follow the money; where do the experts get their money?
Well, in the field where I am an expert (acoustics) I always warn everyone to no thrust me too much, as making errors is very easy, and I made a lot of them, and I will continue making.
Always better to search for a second or third independent evaluation.
But I refuse your suggestion about the money flow. Researchers, here in Europe, have mostly completely permanent positions, we are paid by our state (NOT by the government) and money has little or nothing to do with our errors (which instead are due to ignorance, lack of time and resources for performing adequate experimental verification, and to systematic bias caused by social conditioning).
I too do not thrust anyone just because he is an "expert", but I do not think that the money paying his wage has anything to do with the reliability of the opinion expressed. Oppositely, I tend to think that, exactly as a scientist does not have any economic incentive for lying, his opinion should be less biased.
I understand that this could be different in other cultures, particularly in the US, where money pervades everything, even science.
 
Well, in the field where I am an expert (acoustics) I always warn everyone to no thrust me too much, as making errors is very easy, and I made a lot of them, and I will continue making.
Always better to search for a second or third independent evaluation.
But I refuse your suggestion about the money flow. Researchers, here in Europe, have mostly completely permanent positions, we are paid by our state (NOT by the government) and money has little or nothing to do with our errors (which instead are due to ignorance, lack of time and resources for performing adequate experimental verification, and to systematic bias caused by social conditioning).
I too do not thrust anyone just because he is an "expert", but I do not think that the money paying his wage has anything to do with the reliability of the opinion expressed. Oppositely, I tend to think that, exactly as a scientist does not have any economic incentive for lying, his opinion should be less biased.
I understand that this could be different in other cultures, particularly in the US, where money pervades everything, even science.
Angelo, ignore Marmud re science and especially how it is biased because of the source of the funds. He distrusts everything connected with government. He confuses how he THINKS the system works with how it ACTUALLY works.
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/perdix-ai/

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