Monterey conditions. (let's keep it going )

[lessthanjoey]

As a newbie, I'm wondering if anyone can help calibrate the data on Chuck's WAM page (Monterey Sea Conditions at a Glance) for this Sunday. I've read both his presentation and webpage explaining the data and based on my interpretation of the CDIP 4-day forecast, Sunday conditions look medium-bad. However, if I look at the text offshore forecast it says swell 5-7 ft (NW). That seems more doable, if not actually good.

Since I'll be driving from SF (and already drove home one of my last two times, before I discovered these forecasts!) I wanted some advice on how to better interpret this. We have Point Lobos reservations so it's awfully tempting to just go, but I don't want to be tempted into something dumb, and Lobos also looks more exposed than say, Monterey Bay.

Thanks!

Joe

 

[Gombessa]

5-7ft is typically OK for shore diving here, particularly in a protected bay (or at Point Lobos). IMO, these numbers are worth the drive down and parking fee to stand on the bluff for 10-15 minutes and check out the conditions first-hand. I've never walked away from a 5-7 day, but I have on 6-8ft days a couple of times, but always based on a firsthand view of the conditions.

FWIW, I find the offshore buoy readings more reliable generally. Since it's offshore, 5-7 is probably more like 3-4 inside the bay. NW is typical, generally the "worst" since it's moving directly towards and into the bay. Once in a while you'll see SW or S and you know there's a lot of landmass buffering the swells.

Saturday looks about the same, and I'm definitely driving down tomorrow.

 

[lessthanjoey]

Thanks for the advice! I'll keep watching but I'm encouraged.

 

[Drewpy]

PL tends to be protected somewhat..If you have a res I would say go for it.
If it looks to rough..a nice cruise up the Carmel Valley and a Taste of wine is always nice?

It beats the hell out of driving around Indiana?

The Bulldog Pub on Lighthouse has great food and a nice beer selection.

 

[g1138]

And don't forget there's always the aquarium. They'll even let you dive in any tank if you donate a new exhibit wing.

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

As a newbie, I'm wondering if anyone can help calibrate the data on Chuck's WAM page (Monterey Sea Conditions at a Glance) for this Sunday. I've read both his presentation and webpage explaining the data and based on my interpretation of the CDIP 4-day forecast, Sunday conditions look medium-bad. However, if I look at the text offshore forecast it says swell 5-7 ft (NW). That seems more doable, if not actually good.

Since I'll be driving from SF (and already drove home one of my last two times, before I discovered these forecasts!) I wanted some advice on how to better interpret this. We have Point Lobos reservations so it's awfully tempting to just go, but I don't want to be tempted into something dumb, and Lobos also looks more exposed than say, Monterey Bay.

Thanks!

Joe

About two years ago, the NOAA text forecast became wildly optimisitic. I't's consistently run below the other forecasts and below actuals. For example, this morning's NOAA forecast is NW 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. The most recent buoy report is 8.9' and all indications are that it's going to get bigger as the day goes on. I'm going to do my holiday cards.

Chuck

 

[uspap]

You can't get a better explaination than what Chuck gave you. Whatever you decide, don't let the long drive force you into a bad decision. Here is the forecast I got. N WINDS 5 KT. WIND WAVES LESS THAN 2 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 6 FT AT 10 SECONDS. Lobos is not always protected. Outside whalers cove could get rough. I'm a dive snob and want better conditions than what is forecast. If all else is blown try Del Monte pier.

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

N WINDS 5 KT. WIND WAVES LESS THAN 2 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 6 FT AT 10 SECONDS.

Where did you get that forecast?

Chuck

 

[raftingtigger]

pzz545-560-090515-
point reyes to pigeon point to 10 nm-
pigeon point to point pinos to 10 nm-
212 pm pst sat dec 8 2012

.tonight...n winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Nw swell
5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
.sun...n winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Nw swell 5 to
7 ft at 10 seconds.
.sun night...nw winds 10 to 20 kt...becoming n 10 kt after
midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Nw swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
.mon...n winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Nw swell 3 to 5 ft
at 9 seconds.
.mon night...n winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Nw swell
2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
.tue...nw winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to
7 ft. Sw swell 3 ft.
.wed...nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 8 to
10 ft. Sw swell 3 ft. Chance of showers.
.thu...n winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Nw swell 6 to
8 ft. Slight chance of showers.

.....san francisco bar/fourfathom bank forecast.....

In the deep water channel...combined seas 4 to 5 feet with a
dominant period of 11 seconds.

Across the bar...combined seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period
of 11 seconds. Maximum ebb current of 1.2 knots at 11:44 pm this
evening and 2.4 knots at 12:12 pm tomorrow afternoon.

 

[mobeeno]

Must be for Monday perhaps?

Where did you get that forecast?

Chuck