The Swine Flu thing...

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An interesting and informative read.


Telegraph.co.uk
Jim Lander from Cancun

In Cancun – where a number of the flu's foreign victims, including a Scottish couple, were staying while in Mexico – the 90 huge hotels are emptier than usual. Hotel occupancy has reportedly fallen by 36 per cent as tourists stay away, but those who come are not fazed by health concerns.
At the Oasis Cancun, the hotel where a group of New York high school students were staying just days before coming down with the virus, the party is still in full swing. A young American woman showed little interest in the link as she slugged down a cocktail at the bar. She was breaking all the Mexican government's warnings about not gathering in crowded places, avoiding physical contact and regular handwashing, and she clearly didn't even know it.

Away from the resorts where the locals are doing their level best not to alarm the gringos, [strange word to use?]there have been widespread signs of a worried population. Mexican hospitals report being inundated by thousands of people worried they may have caught the virus.
In the capital, the mood has swung up and down like a pendulum during the week, the vigilance of people's precautions varying considerably from neighbourhood to neighbourhood. In the fashionable middle-class Condesa, almost everyone on the streets has been carefully sporting their paper blue surgical facemasks.

"I basically stay in my house almost all the time. I don't want to see any of my friends in case they infect me or my son or daughter," said Alejandra Peralta, a 37-year-old single mother who works for the government. "A friend yesterday said he was going to pop by. I told him that I didn't want him in my home spreading his germs."

But in many working class barrios, teenagers and young men massed carelessly on the street, laughing, chatting and kicking footballs around.

"I'm not scared of the flu. If it gets me, then it gets me," said Hector Quiros, 27, shrugging.

Bizarre conspiracy theories - blaming America, drug cartels or their own government - are circulating to explain why the virus – whose confirmed flu-related death toll in Mexico now stands at 15 dead and 328 people infected - has been hit so much harder than anywhere else.
Mexico's poor health care system and rudimentary scientific testing facilities have been blamed for delaying for crucial weeks identification of the virus as a new, mutant strain. The 39-year-old woman who was the first to die in the epidemic spent the last eight days of her life going from clinic to clinic to find out what was wrong with her but doctors were baffled.

Misinformation continues to be rife. Hotel management in Caribbean resorts such as Cancun claim - misleadingly given the evidence from abroad - that the virus hasn't affected their regions but at the same time some have been issuing kitchen staff with masks.
Hotel staff have clearly been under orders to play down the crisis, ignoring searching questions with a smile. At the Dreams Cancun resort, an Irish honeymooner asked a concierge about the bag of surgical masks on his desk. The hotel worker mumbled that they were for staff and quickly moved them out of sight, said the tourist.

The hotels are not alone. According to some British holiday makers, local travel company representatives were dismissing fears over the virus as "hype" earlier this week. Among hundreds of tourists who queued on Wednesday for a specially-arranged plane to take them home, there were angry accusations that travel companies had downplayed the health risks.
 
We just got back yesterday and we would get on a plane and go again tomorrow if we could. This was our best vacation ever, go enjoy.
 
Do you bring your own coffee with you too? A few months ago when I was diving in Coz I brought my own coffee with me. I can never find half decaf any place:depressed:
I usually take my own coffee maker & coffee on all land based dive trips, as I like the convenience & economy of my in-room maker, and I don't think any other countries seem to carry brewed decaf. I didn't last time as the Blue Angel started free lobby coffee, but I missed my pot - especially evenings. I've been known to carry my 1-Qt thermos of decaf out with me, ask the waiter if they have decaf, then when he says "no" ask if they mind if I drink my own. :cool: Never been checked for Kahlua content either.

CHECK OUT THIS THREAD ON THIS BOARDhttp://www.scubaboard.com/forums/cozumel/283014-best-time-ever-cozumel.html

TO ALL DIVERS THAT ARE THINKING OF GOING TO COZ SOON, THIS ARE COMMENTS FROM PEOPLE THAT ARE OR JUST HAVE BEEN IN COZ.
Hardly necessary. I think almost everyone reading this thread including posters are eager to get back there. I posted recently that I was happy that my home bud was going with me next time as it lowers room costs and makes me a safer diver but I only wish he'd agreed to next month instead of August. We did add "cancel for any reason" to our trip insurance tho, just in case of new unknowns materializing, even tho we feel reasonably comfortable that this will calm down well before August.

An interesting statistic a doctor friend of mine just shared with me, they are looking into why older people, 50s, 60s & 70s, seem to be more resistent to the current swine flu outbreak than younger people, 20s, 30s & 40s, It is way too early to draw any solid conclusions, he said, but they suspect it MIGHT be that older people that have many years of getting flu shots MIGHT have built up some sort of resistence. Right now it is just empiracal.
I mentioned that with links and article quotes yesterday here, and commented more than once that I've been 59 for a few years now - the resistant group. :eyebrow: I just do not have any selfish interests in the discussion here at all; just discussing.

Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:

Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...
Arrg, I remember the flu of the 50s! Having to sleep with a puke pan handy. Glad that doesn't happen to me when I get a flu anymore. Farm boys aren't into hand washing much so I have to really remind myself now, and I guess I've had all of the strains except for the ones the annual vaccines helped ward off. One year recently I forgot to get the shot, had a bad case, then a relapse a new strain on a Blackbeard liveabord - not only ruining the trip, but I can't think of a worse place to have it. I asked the captain if he wanted to put me off in the Bahamas but he didn't; said they didn't have facilities there to care for me, not that I was getting any care at all on that boat. I guess a lot of others on the boat went home with it. :blush:

1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...
That's the aspect that has been difficult for me. Hell we know it's there, how can it not be - just not reported. I was raised in the knowledge that if you wanted anything done officially in Mexico or New Mexico either one, you asked how much the bribe was, and I don't know of any big improvements in government honesty.

I gotta boot!
 
Oh God now I am really scared from Pilot Fish last post, maybe thinking of moving to the UK, but wait a minute according to WHO the Uk has reported 15 cases already. And I am moved it is so nice this post of the famous and internationally known official information provider "The Telegraph" who I bet the reporter had no other intention but to be nice and inform fellow people about the conspiracy going on in Cancun, not to get people to read their paper or news on internet at all, no media frenzy.....wow.
To all others on this board a big apology for this back and forth with Pilot fish that I really do not understand why he wants to trash Cancun and Cozumel, on his profile it says 0 dives non certified but on one of his comments he claims to bring his own coffee to Coz when he went diving....so that kind of confuses me just like all of his comments that other divers that post have found not so great. To me this ends here I have had enough of Pilot fish like some of you have and I bet you have had enough of me with this....but I will continue posting official information, I could post news from local and national news, but they are in spanish and I refuse to post anything that does not come from the World's Health Org. and when they say there is a conspiracy in Cancun I will post it as well. Enough of this, Pilot fish YOU WIN, I guess with this info no one will come, but today we got 6 new reservations for this next week and for the next 2 of them from Manchester repeat divers that come every year and 1 from London.
All that is said on this article from the "telegraph" is a bunch of twisted bad information....we depend on tourism and will always keep them posted just like many of you on this board know Christi is always on top of things informing about hurricanes as DandyDon has as well. Think what you will, make your own desitions my only advice is get real information to make them, I am not down playing this and if you check several other threads like http://www.scubaboard.com/forums/cozumel/283014-best-time-ever-cozumel.html where real divers that have been in Coz in the last week or so post their experiences.
Again sorry all for keeping this little you against me posts, on my part it ends here, he can continue posting all he wants it is his right but I will not answer those posts anymore, I will keep posting the updates from the WORLD'S HEALTH ORG.
THANK YOU ALL
 
I don't believe that anyone who spends much time on this board harbours any ill will to Cancun or Cozumel. Just the opposite, in fact. What we have are people who interpret information - and therefore associated risk - differently and through their own lenses. That is not unusual in any issue. But some parties seem determined to "win" their pointof view and that is really getting old.

Take a look at the number of hits on this thread, which exceed a sticky that have been up for years. We are MOST interested in this issue, are staying up to date, and figuring on when we can head back to our favourite dive destination.

Pilot Fish is not the only diver on Scubaboard who does not post his dive numbers (he used to, as I recall). Why someone wouldn't I don't get but there you go.

PS If you really want to know what's happening on this virus, pay attention to what I say. I am EXCEPTIONALLY plugged in at an operational level - nationally and internationally. Not boasting - simply fact. I know how this sounds. Can't help it since it is the truth.
 
1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...

HOLA LAMONT I CLICKED ON YOUR LINK OF SECRETARIA DE SALUD AND THIS IS WHAT CAME UP AND I DID NOT ERASE ANYTHING, MAYBE I AM WRONG BUT I DID NOT READ ANY CASES OR THE NAME OF OUR STATE QUINTANA ROO OR MAYBE YOU CAN DIRECT ME WHERE IT SAYS CONFIRMED CASES OF QUINTANA ROO 1 BECAUSE I WOULD REALLY WANT TO KNOW IF STATE GOVMNT IS HIDING OR DOWN PLAYING THINGS AND I DO NOT WANT TO SEEM LIKE A FOOL THIS IS WHAT CAME UP CLICKING THE LINK YOU POSTED, YOUR POSTS ARE ALWAYS GREAT INFO KEEP THEM COMING SINCE WE ARE PROBABLY LIMITED TO WHO AND OUR GVMT WELL YOU KNOW HOW THEY ARE:

Domingo 03 de Mayo del 2009 Secretaria de Salud
EstadùÔticas.
02 de mayo del 2009.
Influenza A(H1N1)
Numero de casos confirmados: 443
Numero de defunciones: 16

Distribucion de los casos en el pais (DISTRIBUTION OF CASES PER STATE)

ESTADOS CASOS DEFUNCIONES STATE - # OF CASES - DEATHS
Distrito Federal -285 -11
Estado de Mexiico -53 -3
San Luis Potosi 29- 0
Hidalgo- 27- 0
Baja California -11- 0
Tlaxcala 11 1
Aguascalientes 5 0
Chihuahua 4 0
Colima 3 0
Guerrero 3 0
Chiapas 2 0
Durango 2 0
Puebla 2 0
Queretaro 2 0
Guanajuato 1 0
Michoacán1 0
Oaxaca 1 1
Veracruz 1 0
Totales 443 16




Casos acumulados hasta las 09:20 hrs. del dùÂ 02 de mayo del 2009
 
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It's convenient to piss off the news media articles as inaccurate and it's true that they are often more interested in deadlines and selling news than achieving quality, but they are our best sources between WHO & CDC updates, which also tend to include limit info behind their announcements.

Dr Niman did forecast that the US would be well covered in cases within a couple of weeks, and he's seldom wrong in his decades of services....

From http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

2nkriqb.jpg


From: Flu, Mostly Mild, Has Spread Across U.S., Officials Say
Swine flu has become widespread in the United States, with 226 cases in 30 states and more expected to turn up in additional states in the next few days, federal health officials said Sunday.

Ū think itÃÔ circulating all over the U.S., Dr. Anne Schuchat, the interim deputy director for science and public health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a news conference. ŵhe virus has arrived, I would say, in most of the country now.

The good news, Dr. Schuchat said, is that most cases in the United States have been mild, and health officials in Mexico said that cases there seemed to be leveling off.

But Dr. Schuchat said, Ū donÃÕ think weÃÓe out of the woods yet.

From: US flu tally jumps to 245 as labs catch up
The tally of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States jumped Sunday to 245 in 35 states, but officials said that's largely from catching up on a backlog of lab tests rather than a sudden spurt in new infections.

The new count reflects streamlining in federal procedures and the results of tests by states, which have only recently begun confirming cases, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

Because states are now contributing their results, and because there are many cases to analyze, "I expect the numbers to jump quite a bit in the next couple days," she told reporters Sunday.

I'm sure many kids are enjoying their extra spring breaks as schools close all over, at the pain of working moms. Got to be rough on the school administration to cope; Texas is in the midst of TAKS testing that may even close some schools permantnetly because of poor results in recent years. Got to be traumatic on high school seniors missing the prom they've looked forward to for years. Can't help but wonder how much mischief the kids will get into on their breaks and how much flu they'll spread anyway.

Pig farmers have a new headache, not only dealing with idiots who stopped eating pork for no reason in all of this, but now protecting their herds from infection now that one Canadian farmer returned from Mexico and infected his herd.

A novel new tool in predicting spread is being considered and we may see more of this. From: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04model.html?ref=global-homePredicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington
His projection is remarkably detailed by clicking on a map one can see how many cases a rural county in North Dakota can expect in two weeks versus how many Queens County in New York City can expect.

Dr. Brockmann can put out a simulation in two days, since each update needs 10 hours of computing time after data is updated. IndianaÃÔ model takes about the same on its supercomputer, Big Red, said its team leader, Alessandro Vespignani, an informatics professor.

His model covers the globe, and it is based on air and land travel records for nearly the whole world. Ūn Africa, predictions are less accurate, but we have truck traffic, Dr. Vespignani said.

Some are commending Mexico for taking better actions that China with SARS, but that's probly more of Mexico couldn't hide it any longer. They had some months of warnings. From: In Mexico, an Unusual Flu Season Was a Sign of Something Ominous
Evidence was mounting in the spring that this was no ordinary flu season. There were 3,000 more cases of serious flu than usual in Mexico this season, and the number of "outbreak clusters" was more than double. Previously healthy adults were dying from severe cases of pneumonia from San Luis Potosi to Oaxaca.

By March 10, authorities first heard reports of a mysterious influenza-like illness in the desert village of La Gloria, a dust-blown settlement in hog-farming country a three-hour drive east of Mexico City. Although the flu season usually should have ended, residents were beginning to feel feverish and achy at an alarming rate. By the end of the outbreak on April 10, 616 people -- nearly 30 percent of the village -- were sick.

"That was a very high attack rate," Lezana said. "Very high."

Teams of health care workers entered the village in early April to investigate. They took nasal and throat swab samples from 50 of the ill. Other medical teams distributed medicine and fumigated the entire village.

The health workers sent the samples to state and federal public health labs. Weeks later, a single patient in La Gloria, 5-year-old ŽÉdgar Enrique HernáÏdez, tested positive for swine flu.

One reason for the delay in understanding the outbreak was the fact that the national testing laboratory in Mexico City was unable to identify the new strain found in La Gloria.

As medical researchers were trying to understand the situation in La Gloria, they received information about another outbreak, this time in the southern city of Oaxaca, where a cluster of patients was showing severe respiratory distress.
and
Nonstop, Joint Efforts

Within a day of the discovery of the new strain, CDC experts were in Mexico City helping their counterparts enhance laboratory testing of the virus. A dozen new rapid-testing DNA analyzers are now working round-the-clock on a backlog of 1,000 samples.

"They were under tremendous pressure, working 16 hours a day. But they did it," said Miguel Cruz, an emergency operations officer with the CDC who was sent to Mexico City.

Cruz and other members of a team helping the Mexicans are headquartered in a building in southern Mexico City. On the third floor, in the carpeted, glass-walled "situation room," health officials scour computer maps of Mexico and hold video conferences to try to understand the spreading virus. Wall clocks track the time in Tijuana, Mexico City, Washington and Tokyo.

"We're mainly working on trying to improve the information we're getting," said Steve Waterman, a team leader at the CDC who is in Mexico.

"That's the big question. Is it stabilizing or not? And it's too early to say," he said. "But I think we're getting systems in place, so we're going to be able to get a handle on that soon. . . . I think we're getting closer to understanding the outbreak."

Mexican scientists said the virus has been spreading primarily within families and among co-workers, often in dense, poor neighborhoods of Mexico City. At one point last week, Health Ministry documents show, 77 percent of the confirmed swine flu cases were in Mexico City; if the surrounding state of Mexico were included, the proportion jumped to 93 percent.

"When you have this huge accumulation with crowded people in a rather small area, you have a greater opportunity to spread the disease," Lezana said. "Besides, it's an area -- in general -- of low-income, poor people, urban poor, very crowded, so those might be some of the main explanations for that."

The number of confirmed dead in Mexico stood at 19 on Saturday, unchanged from the day before, C?dova said at a news conference in Mexico City. Confirmed swine flu cases, including the deaths, rose from 397 to 473.

"We are in a stabilization phase," C?dova said Saturday. "It is too soon to say we are past the most complicated moment."

Make of any/all that what you will. Everything could change again in days of course. I still wonder how long Mexico can pretend that there's no flu in the Yuc-Pen. :shakehead: "Come on down; the water's fine! Yeah, right. While employees are ordered to keep quiet, and who knows what's happening out of site. I do like that most cafes in Cozumel seem to do their cooking in view of the customers.
 
It's convenient to piss off the news media articles as inaccurate and it's true that they are often more interested in deadlines and selling news than achieving quality, but they are our best sources between WHO & CDC updates, which also tend to include limit info behind their announcements.

Dr Niman did forecast that the US would be well covered in cases within a couple of weeks, and he's seldom wrong in his decades of services....

From FluTracker

2nkriqb.jpg


From: Flu, Mostly Mild, Has Spread Across U.S., Officials Say

From: US flu tally jumps to 245 as labs catch up


I'm sure many kids are enjoying their extra spring breaks as schools close all over, at the pain of working moms. Got to be rough on the school administration to cope; Texas is in the midst of TAKS testing that may even close some schools permantnetly because of poor results in recent years. Got to be traumatic on high school seniors missing the prom they've looked forward to for years. Can't help but wonder how much mischief the kids will get into on their breaks and how much flu they'll spread anyway.

Pig farmers have a new headache, not only dealing with idiots who stopped eating pork for no reason in all of this, but now protecting their herds from infection now that one Canadian farmer returned from Mexico and infected his herd.

A novel new tool in predicting spread is being considered and we may see more of this. From: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04model.html?ref=global-homePredicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington


Some are commending Mexico for taking better actions that China with SARS, but that's probly more of Mexico couldn't hide it any longer. They had some months of warnings. From: In Mexico, an Unusual Flu Season Was a Sign of Something Ominous

and


Make of any/all that what you will. Everything could change again in days of course. I still wonder how long Mexico can pretend that there's no flu in the Yuc-Pen. :shakehead: "Come on down; the water's fine! Yeah, right. While employees are ordered to keep quiet, and who knows what's happening out of site. I do like that most cafes in Cozumel seem to do their cooking in view of the customers.


Hola Don, thank you for your input, your info is always great specially last hurricane season, I am so looking forward for your research on the upcoming season, I believe you are a great researcher and your posts make sense, keep them coming, I am starting to feel like a fool because I post on WHO and what our govmnt says, I maybe wrong, but things here are calm kids out of school, no cinemas but grocery stores open and at hotels employees are wearing masks etc. but who knows what everyone is doing, all I know is there is no conspiracy from Cancun, this kind of things bring out the best and worst on people.....anyway thanks for input keep it coming have a nice night....:D
 
HOLA LAMONT I CLICKED ON YOUR LINK OF SECRETARIA DE SALUD AND THIS IS WHAT CAME UP AND I DID NOT ERASE ANYTHING, MAYBE I AM WRONG BUT I DID NOT READ ANY CASES OR THE NAME OF OUR STATE QUINTANA ROO OR MAYBE YOU CAN DIRECT ME WHERE IT SAYS CONFIRMED CASES OF QUINTANA ROO 1 BECAUSE I WOULD REALLY WANT TO KNOW IF STATE GOVMNT IS HIDING OR DOWN PLAYING THINGS AND I DO NOT WANT TO SEEM LIKE A FOOL

I checked it right after Lamont posted and there was one confirmed, no deaths on QRoo. Looks like the link or info on the link has changed. My Spanish isn't good enough to figure out where it might be elsewhere on the site. Why don't you send a question to the webmaster for the site?
 
Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

You probably missed that part, huh? That must make you feel, well, sucky, huh?


How many times are you going to post the same damn thing? Yes we've all seen this post from you over and over and over again! Enough already. You don't even bother to cite the source or post the link. That's funny.

All I'm saying is, Mexico is a really large chunk of real estate. Saying the whole thing is dangerous is very extreme. Like someone said about 40 pages ago, saying Cozumel has a high risk of infection because it's south of the border would be about the same as saying Key West is dangerous because there are a lot of cases in New York City.

I'm starting to think you either watched Stephan King's The Stand a few too many times, or you're one of those people that has an end of the world fetish. :shakehead:
 
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