One more false alarm, more messed up vacations.

[jldodd]

I'll have to agree with the OP here. Living in SW FL, we have had many "scares" that have lead to evacuations, school closings and the like when it was needless.

Do your homework on the hurricane in question when it comes to decision time. A hurricane can effect the weather and waves hundreds of miles from the storm center, but that typically occurs on the right front quadrant of the storm. So in the case of Gustav, anything to the east of it's path (Gulf Coast of Florida) would have some sort of effect. The opposite is usually true on the back side of the storm. Conditions in most cases are better than normal. Flat seas and clear skies because all of the moisture and energy are being sucked into the core of the storm.

Be informed and watch the weather reports but have your own understanding because local news outlets will slant what they show you.

 

[DandyDon]

Hype? Tell that to 1600 dead people in New Orleans.

I think what he meant was that ignoring storm risks has often proven to backfire with serious consequences. Katrina death toll 1577 Louisiana, 1,836 total, with 705 missing. Over reacting and under reacting both have their down sides. I ignored some warnings last year, came to Coz even tho Dean was headed that way, even thot about riding it out, but cut & ran - even tho people were arriving at the hotel the night before I left.

We do try to keep discussion reasonable here on SB. We goof sometimes, but do so openly so others can correct us. There was one poster in the Gust thread on Coz forum who said he and his wife were leaving for the Bahamas Saturday, and I noticed that he has not logged in since so I guess they went. My first reaction to them was "You're kidding" which I soon amended to "never mind" but Hanna has turn on them afterall, with Ike expected to soon make Cat-1 and headed that way and with one model predicting Cat-4, then I-99 off of Africa and others lined up to come off.

The no/no-go call is up to each and all one can do is compare best available forecasts and opinions.

 

[ggunn]

I'll have to agree with the OP here. Living in SW FL, we have had many "scares" that have lead to evacuations, school closings and the like when it was needless.

Well, I am of two minds about this. I have posted in here many times that even in the peak of hurricane season the odds of a hurricane striking where you are, when you are there are very low. I have traveled to Cozumel in late July, and the fact that it was near the peak of hurricane season gave me not a moment's pause when I booked the tix in February.

OTOH, I too am a veteran of numerous "needless" hurricane preparations, but they were needless only in the 20:20 vision of hindsight. Official agencies who are being depended upon for life preserving information must necessarily err to the side of caution. While it is true the the predictive abilities of modern weather services have gotten quite good in recent times, storms can and do occasionally wander outside of the statistical models which are used to generate the projected strike cones and wind swath plots. It is better to be overprepared than underprepared, and it is a fact of life that the majority of hurricane precautions will turn out to be "needless" in retrospect.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Dear Gordon, Dandy Don and all,

I am not trying to minimize the risk of hurricanes for Cozumel, and good lord, when we have a real risk we take plenty of preparation and so inform our divers. What I suggest is, that divers become more educated as to the REAL potential outcomes of what many times is media driven attention. Believe me, I get lots of really uninformed questions about this--every summer, and it would be a lot better to have an informed dive community.

As a matter of fact, as I write this, the media is promoting the worry about two growing tropical storms out in the eastern Atlantic, and some have even said they "will certainly enter the Caribbean". That is "Ike" and "Joesphine" and given their northern latitude while several thousand miles from Cozumel, stand little chance of ever being a factor to the island. But an educated diver could make a rational decision on where to make next week's dive trip.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

Kerrville, Texas BTW

 

[chile]

Dave,

Thanks for the info. We are headed to Cozumel in two weeks and wondered about Ike and Josephine. I guess there is no point in fretting about it now. It's unlikely to affect us, and there's nothing to do about it anyway. I will just look forward to the trip and hope for the best.

 

[DandyDon]

Thanks Dave. Honestly I don't read news stories about storms until after they hit. Many of us follow Dr.Master's Weather Underground and I do think he is tops in understanding these things. From his blog today:

There is not much heavy thunderstorm activity yet, probably due to the presence of some dry air and rather cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 27°C. SSTs will gradually warm to 29°C over the next five days, but the shear is forecast by some models to increase above 20 knots by Thursday. The SHIPS model responds by strengthening Ike only to a Category 1 hurricane. However, the HWRF and GFDL models do not depict as much shear 3-5 days from now, and intensify Ike into a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Friday, when it is expected to be 100-300 miles north of Puerto Rico. Both of these models predict landfall in the Dominican Republic or Haiti as a major hurricane on Saturday. This kind of intensification seems unlikely at present, due to the increased shear likely Thursday and Friday. The GFS and ECMWF foresee Ike passing through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Historically, virtually all storms in the northern Antilles head north to northwest and very rarely enter the Caribbean. Not likely at all that Ike or Jo will come anywhere close enough to cause any affect there.

 

[ggunn]

Dear Gordon, Dandy Don and all,

I am not trying to minimize the risk of hurricanes for Cozumel, and good lord, when we have a real risk we take plenty of preparation and so inform our divers. What I suggest is, that divers become more educated as to the REAL potential outcomes of what many times is media driven attention. Believe me, I get lots of really uninformed questions about this--every summer, and it would be a lot better to have an informed dive community.

I don't disagree with any of that, but when it comes to the Authorities, they take a worst case scenario approach because they have to. As to the media, well, they love that dirty laundry. Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down...

 

[mark1965]

Was the port closed any of the time while Gustav bypassed Cozumel? If so how many days?

 

[CozumelAntonio]

Was the port closed any of the time while Gustav bypassed Cozumel? If so how many days?

The HarborMaster closed the port on Saturday evening, and on Sunday morning it was only open for boats of 40' or more, at 10:30am it opened for all boats and activities. There was considerable chop and white caps during the closure, but by mid-day Sunday it calmed down considerably.

 

[Scott101]

If I may add my perspective, yes, the media does tend to exaggerate the potential for massive damage and distruction from these storms. They generally do that with everything.

But anyway, some of us (me) do want to know if there is a chance that a storm will hit during the week that we visit the island. Of course, worrying won't stop a storm but it can help ease the anxiety that can comes with it. I get 10 dives a year, thats all. And for those 10 dives, I have to plan the logistics months in advance, not weeks. I have to get off work, see that my wife can also, find a flight, a room and hope and pray that nothing on this end goes wrong. Predicting that 6 months in advance is a feat in its self. Then, if the stars align and all goes well, a week or two before I depart, I start watching the weather off the coast of Africa. A few days before, I look at the weather in the proximity of Cozumel. If it looks like there is a potential for bad weather that might not all me those 10 dives, I have to call the trip. That means its back to the drawing board and a good chance that there will be no diving for Scotty this year. And just between me and the board, that really blows!

So, I don't think that I am the only one that goes through all this and asks the silly questions every time it clouds up in the Atlantic. Please just bear with us. We all love Cozumel because of the diving and the people and the environment. If we didn't, we wouldn't worry so much.