Drownings after surfacing without establishing buoyancy have been all too common on this forum; my bud & I drill on oral inflating and dumping every trip just in case panic tries to take over one of us in such a case.
About a year and a half ago, TS&M posted about that experienced diver from Oregon who floundered on the surface after an OOA ascent and drowned. Since then, I've practiced oral inflation on every dive. I explain why so my buddies don't think I'm in serious trouble, but I haven't seen anyone else start doing it.
halemanō, I haven't done the math for cold water, but the diver was in the Pacific Northwest. Since she was new to diving, she was likely in a 7mm wetsuit (possibly two-piece) rather than in a drysuit. Your numbers might be correct - perhaps at 33 ft she should be "slightly negative" in a 7mm wetsuit. However you live in Hawaii (I am envious, by the way...). Have you accounted for the difference between a 3mm suit and a 7mm suit? I have got to tell you that I LOVE Florida diving since I feel light as a feather on the boat and my buoyancy rocks when I don't have to contend with 7mm x 2 or a drysuit...
Diving in August in Vancouver would be in a 7mm John & Jacket or drysuit, but probably the J&J -- 14mm on your core -- plus hood, gloves, and boots. You simply cannot dive in anything less than a full exposure suit up here, end of story. The beaches here will be full of people on a 30C day, but the water itself will be almost completely empty. Water surface temperature is about 7C, with thermoclines dropping that to 4C even in the summer. We were just talking about this at work -- every year a tourist thinks "I can swim that". They get a nice tour of a Coast Guard vessel, free hot chocolate, and a reminder that the water here is a lot colder than it looks.
That much suit would put her... ballast somewhere around 35#, depending on her BMI. I wear a neoprene drysuit, even in the summer, with 30#, and I'm a 165#, 5'11" man. If she was new to diving, they'd likely throw an extra 5# on her and if she hasn't done a buoyancy check she might still be at her "starting" weight guessed at when she took OW. (So easily up to 40# of lead, which would be a perfectly reasonable amount for diving here. One of my ex-buddies dives 40# in Victoria and 6# in Florida.) The two most likely weight configurations would be to have 10# in each of the integrated pouches (with the rest unditchable) but most likely all the lead on a ditchable belt. We practiced ditching when I took OW, and my instructor told me "If you ever wonder if you should ditch your weights, ditch your weights. Come find me and I'll buy you new ones."
That might be moot, as the news said she didn't make it to the surface. However, I've been in the paper and they always get something wrong.