Why is it the biggest problem? PADi alone adds about one million new scuba divers to the ranks each year and has been doing so for the last 10 years.
In 2000 there were about 11,000,000 PADI divers, in 2012 there are 21,000,000. In 1969 it took almost 5 years to add 100,000 scuba divers to the ranks, today we are reaching the point pretty quickly of adding 100,000 new divers a month.
According to PADI the median age of a scuba diver is 29 years old and has been hanging steady at 29 for at least the last 6 years.
Scuba is just a jniche sport so the numbers are never going to approach other main stream sports, but I don't see the signs that the sport is dying.
Biggest problem I see in the industry is just a lot of really poor business people who own dive shops, still relying on a 1970s business model of selling scuba gear as a main income source.
Ohhhh, Mike and I agree on something... This summer while home in the US, I had a chance to visit four or five shops of varying sizes. Of them, two stand out...
One a 'large' shop, with it's own pool, a good selection of equipment from 2-3 suppliers, and their own wetsuits. They had a knowledgable instructor who I used for my drysuit training, and who trained my wife... back to this in a minute.
The other shop was small, with enough room for a small counter and a single two sided clothing rack in the middle, the walls were covered with pegboard hooks and other items of equipment. This shop was run by the owner, he does most of the training (also teaches scuba thru the local university), and he runs the local dive club... not a lot of selection overall, good quality stuff, but nothing that would stand out, mid-range stuff that will get a diver by for years.
Now, in comparing the two, obviously, size is a big factor. But in terms of management, I'd give that to the smaller shop. It isn't just that the owner is more personable, or that he doesn't push sales (I don't know anyone who could survive if they didn't)... but it's the fact that the owner is hands on, he's involved with scheduling the training.
The other shop, now with two locations in a major SoCal market, the owner has obviously made his money. He's stand offish, doesn't feel like he needs to interact with customers spending good money in his shop, he leaves that for the peons. But what kind of burned me more, and is a reason I'll probably not ever go back, is that I paid for my wife and SIL to take their OW from these guys on a 'private' lesson schedule, and according to their site they would work with you. But the kicker is that their primary instructor who is 'available' other than weekends works in the store full-time. So classes and dives had to be scheduled around his work schedule. He makes more working IN the store, so why would he arrange his schedule to lose hours for a OW course? To me, that's on the owner. You have people spending $450 a pop for the OW course (already put out $160 each for the e-learning to help streamline it), and spare me the "we don't make any money on training"... they are buying equipment in your shop to the tune of $1800, and you can't make the schedule more flexible, or pull a few hours behind the counter yourself?
I also did my drysuit training here, and paid for the instructors day on the boat to dive with me. And again the owner when I popped in the shop a couple days later with a question about a local shore dive, he couldn't take time from his standing around to answer the question.
Maybe I'm more old school about running a business. I think businesses are operated to make money, and the key principle in that is 'free advertising' and return customers. More than anything, that's the big difference between these two shops. One owner took time to work with me, discuss my dry suit, even help fit me with new fins (which ultimately I passed on, but he didn't take it personal).. the other acted like he was doing me a service opening the doors in the morning (at 9am - why wouldn't you have at least a skeleton staff available at 6am to rent out tanks, weights, or other things that people coming in to town for boat dives in the marina a mile away need that early?)... anyway, I'm with Mike, there are some basic business principles that could increase profits and revenue in most shops. That are just too much WORK for them.