Why aren't more people taking up scuba diving?

[Michael Guerrero]

Today I added up my expenses to date to go from OW to deco pros w/ accompanying gear and it's $10K. And that's diving local.

RJP, your description was my exact experience when I went into the shop, "Here, buy this, and this, and this. OK, now that you've bought all this stuff and have paid for the course, let's see if you actually like this activity and are safe enough for me to certify you. Who am I kidding, we certify anyone and everyone."

 

[CAPTAIN SINBAD]

Recent threads about the state of affairs of scuba training, whether and how “the scuba industry” might try to attract new divers, and what impact the dynamic of upselling new/existing divers on gear and training as the main source of revenue (since there are fewer new divers) might have on the scuba diving industry overall.

With no single voice trying to drive interest and demand for scuba diving, we are left with the various manufacturers, agencies, shops, boats, resorts, instructors, etc (and their individual, often conflicting messaging) in a desperate fight for the handful of people who have come to their own conclusion – for whatever reason – that they want to be a scuba diver.

To examine whether this approach has fostered a compelling value proposition that is attractive – or repulsive – from the potential new diver's point of view I present…

Monty Python’s “The Dive Industry Sketch”

CAST:
LDS Owner: Michael Palin
Potential Customer: John Cleese

SCENE:
[A bell rings as the door to a dive shop swings open. A potential new customer rushes in out of the rain, approaches the counter, and patiently waits a few moments for the LDS owner – who is busily dusting aging inventory – to notice him.]

CUSTOMER: [Clears throat loudly.]

LDS OWNER: “Oh… well hello there!”

CUSTOMER: “Good day. I’ve come in to find out about…”

LDS OWNER: “Come in to find out about how to ‘Be A Diver’ have we? Wonderful!”

CUSTOMER: “Um, uh…”

LDS OWNER: “You’re in luck! We’re running a special on scuba diving certification!”

CUSTOMER: "Hmm…"

LDS OWNER: "The class is $395. And you'll have to buy your own mask, fins, snorkel, booties..."

CUSTOMER: "That stuff isn’t included in the course fee? What do you charge for that stuff?"

LDS OWNER: "Well it depends. Masks can run as high as $125 for a good one. Snorkels can be $40 for this fancy one. Booties are another $40. And these "Smoke-On-Your-Wallet" split-fins are $259."

CUSTOMER: "Hmm... so a new diver is looking at more than $800 before they even get wet?"

LDS OWNER: "Oh, heavens no..."

CUSTOMER: "Whew!"

LDS OWNER: "... you'll also want to factor in buying your own wetsuit. People pee in those things, you know!"

CUSTOMER: "Um..."

LDS OWNER: "... and a BCD, a regulator, a backup regulator, a computer, a backup computer..."

CUSTOMER: “Why would I need backup gear?”

LDS OWNER: “In case your primary gear fails, of course.”

CUSTOMER: “Does the primary gear fail often?”

LDS OWNER: “With alarming regularity… theoretically speaking, of course.”

CUSTOMER: "Um, so what does all that stuff cost? The training, the personal gear, and the other stuff you say I need?”

LDS OWNER: "Right. Let’s get down to business! Very direct, I like the way you think! [Starts piling gear on the counter and ringing customer up on cash register] Figure another $1,500 on the low end… maybe $2,500 on the high end. A few retractors… a snorkel keeper… some defog… Of course, someday you might dive TriMix... so you'll want this $2,000 gas-switching computer..."

CUSTOMER: "Um, perhaps a crazy thought sir… but can’t I just rent that stuff when I take my wife and kids on our once-a-year vacation?"

LDS OWNER: "Oh, sure. You can always rent gear… if you want to die. This stuff is life-support equipment! And very delicate, too! Rental gear is usually 25yrs old, stored in a trash bin, and is only serviced by drunken chimpanzees after someone dies while using it. Besides, rental gear will be very different than what we use here in class… see these square buttons? [Points to LPI attached to a BCD] These square buttons could well be round buttons on rental gear! See what I’m getting at? You’d really be in quite the pickle then, wouldn’t you? Quite the pickle indeed!”

CUSTOMER: “Ok. But once I buy my own gear I’m all set then, right?”

LDS OWNER : “Right.”

CUSTOMER: “Ok.”

LDS OWNER: “Except for the annual service.”

CUSTOMER: “Annual service!?!”

LDS OWNER: “Indeed. Life support equipment must be serviced every year! Can only be done by the guy we keep locked in the back room here at the shop. Can’t expect to be able to turn a few screws or change a battery yourself, can you!”

CUSTOMER: "So I'm looking at spending more money each year in service costs - on the $2,500 worth of gear you want me to buy today - than I would pay to rent the very same gear for the one trip each year I'm planning on taking?"

LDS OWNER: "Oh, heaven's no..."

CUSTOMER: "Whew!"

LDS OWNER: "You need to dive locally too! Of course you'll need a drysuit, and drysuit training, and your own tanks, and a redundant tank, and you'll want to get nitrox certified..."

CUSTOMER: "Wait, what!?! What's nitrox?"

LDS OWNER: "A special gas you need to breathe... it helps make diving safe."

CUSTOMER: "Wait, what!?! Is diving unsafe!?!"

LDS OWNER: "Oh heaven's no! As long as you take the Rescue Diver course..."

CUSTOMER: "What's a Rescue Diver course?"

LDS OWNER: "$450"

CUSTOMER: "No, no! Why do I need to take a Rescue Diver course?"

LDS OWNER: "So that your wife and kids don't die!"

CUSTOMER: "Huh!?!"

LDS OWNER: "...but you’ll need to take Advanced Open Water first..."

CUSTOMER: "I need to be an advanced diver?"

LDS OWNER: "Oh, heavens no! It's just that the OW course doesn't really teach you everything you need to know to go diving.”

CUSTOMER: “But aren’t there training standards?”

LDS OWNER: “Of course there are standards. [Wistfully staring out the window.] Though they’re not like they used to be, I’ll tell you that much. Back when dive training was worth paying good money for it was done by navy seals, who would spend six months trying to kill you…"

CUSTOMER: “So the standards are lower now?”

LDS OWNER: “Oh yes! Abysmally so. But not all training agencies are that way.”

CUSTOMER: “What’s a training agency?”

LDS OWNER: “They oversee the training. Well, technically speaking the instructor oversees the training, not the agency. The different agencies are just publishing companies, each with their own standards…”

CUSTOMER: “So there ARE standards, then?”

LDS OWNER: “Oh, of course! Wouldn’t be much of a profession without standards then, would it?”

CUSTOMER: “But if I’m hearing you right, the standards… aren’t… actually… standard?”

LDS OWNER: “Right.”

CUSTOMER: "So after spending $395 to get certified, for which I need to spend another $400 for personal gear, I’ll need to take Nitrox, Drysuit, AOW, and Rescue Diver in order to really know how to dive… so I can spend another $2,000 per person for the rest of the gear, which will need to be serviced every year, because if I rent gear in the Cayman Islands… my wife, kids, and I will probably die?"

LDS OWNER: "Ah, yes! Been doing your research on ScubaBoard then, I see!?! I knew you were a sharp cookie!”

CUSTOMER: “What’s a ScubaBoard?”

LDS OWNER: “Great website, lots of divers there. Even cave divers post there, you know!”

CUSTOMER: “People dive in caves?”

LDS OWNER: “Whoa, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, then. You haven’t even paid for THIS gear yet!” [Presenting customer with lengthy bill.]

CUSTOMER: “So that’s roughly $20,000 in gear and training, plus annual service costs on four sets of gear, plus airfare, hotel, and food so that my wife, kids, and I can look at some pretty fishies once a year… assuming of course that we don’t die?”

LDS OWNER: “Don’t forget tips.”

CUSTOMER: “Tips?”

LDS OWNER: “Of course! For the DMs. They’re professionals, you know! [Stares out the window, thoughtfully] Though, come to think of it… we don’t actually pay them. [Snaps back to present.] Well, that’s neither here nor there…”

CUSTOMER: “Well, I guess it’s worth throwing the DM a few dollars knowing I can count on them to keep my wife, kids, and I from dying.”

LDS OWNER: “Right. Yes. Well… not exactly.”

CUSTOMER: “Seems like a lot of time, effort, and money for something that I really only see myself doing once or twice a year on vacation.”

LDS OWNER: “Don’t forget the freezing cold quarry that’s 4hrs from here!”

CUSTOMER: “What can we see in a freezing cold quarry?”

LDS OWNER: “There’s a school bus. Ooh… with a trout in it!”

CUSTOMER: “I see…”

LDS OWNER: “Not with the viz we get up there after an OW class has come through, you won’t…”

CUSTOMER: [Slowly backing towards the door.]

LDS OWNER: “We have a class starting tonight…”

CUSTOMER: “Yeah, um… ya know… my wife and kids are in the car... and… well… I’m thinking… maybe… maybe we’ll come back another time.” [Heads for the door]

LDS OWNER: “Oh you are a sharp cookie then! [Calling after the Customer as he exits shop] Waiting is a perfect idea! You’ve no doubt read on ScubaBoard that there’s a move afoot to make the training harder… and longer... and far more expensive if you’re lucky! Then you can REALLY be a diver! Come back soon...”

[Bell rings as the door closes. Through the shop window we see the customer getting into his car and driving off.]

LDS OWNER’s WIFE (Terry Jones in drag): [Coming out from back room.] “Was that a customer, dear?”

LDS OWNER: “Indeed! He said he’ll be back... with his wife and kids!” [LDS Owner resumes dusting aging inventory]



[Scene shifts to interior of Customer’s car.]

CUSTOMER’s WIFE (Eric Idle, in drag): [Speaking to husband, curtly.] “Good heavens, what took so long in there?”

CUSTOMER: “Couldn't get a word in edgewise. He was going on about poor dive training… and expensive gear… and annual service costs… and how you and the kids will probably die if we take up scuba diving.”

CUSTOMER’s WIFE: “Take up Scuba diving?”

CUSTOMER: “Indeed.”

CUSTOMER’s WIFE: “Who wants to take up scuba diving?”

CUSTOMER: “Sorry, dear. He just seemed so excited… I didn’t have the heart to tell him I only came in to ask if he knew what became of the vacuum cleaner shop that used to be next door.”

Perhaps it's time?

 

[dmoore19]

Good thing the shop I use isn't like that, I wouldn't be certified if it was. If that is the way shops do it I can understand where the problem is.

 

[Insta-Gator]

RJP

That was spot on.

 

[scubafanatic]

I'll give you green. This is right up there with what to bring on a liveaboard.

...don't forget the 'Shallow Divers' one!

 

[Mike]

It's actually the biggest problem. In general, it doesn't make sense for any one manufacturer to try to grow the market. Think about it, even if you had a 20% market share of equipment (which would be huge) even the most effective campaign you can envision to promote diving in general is going to favor your competition 4-to-1 over you.

But it would be far better for all manufacturers if SOMEONE did SOMETHING to increase demand for scuba diving. Companies don't mind - and make a lot more money - competing for a piece of a pie that is growing. They make less money... and do stupid things that end up shooting the industry in the foot (fin?) - when they are backed into a corner and have to duke it out for scraps of a shrinking pie.

Why is it the biggest problem? PADi alone adds about one million new scuba divers to the ranks each year and has been doing so for the last 10 years.

In 2000 there were about 11,000,000 PADI divers, in 2012 there are 21,000,000. In 1969 it took almost 5 years to add 100,000 scuba divers to the ranks, today we are reaching the point pretty quickly of adding 100,000 new divers a month.

According to PADI the median age of a scuba diver is 29 years old and has been hanging steady at 29 for at least the last 6 years.

Scuba is just a jniche sport so the numbers are never going to approach other main stream sports, but I don't see the signs that the sport is dying.

Biggest problem I see in the industry is just a lot of really poor business people who own dive shops, still relying on a 1970s business model of selling scuba gear as a main income source.

 

[RJP]

Why is it the biggest problem? PADi alone adds about one million new scuba divers to the ranks each year and has been doing so for the last 10 years.

In 2000 there were about 11,000,000 PADI divers, in 2012 there are 21,000,000. In 1969 it took almost 5 years to add 100,000 scuba divers to the ranks, today we are reaching the point pretty quickly of adding 100,000 new divers a month.

According to PADI the median age of a scuba diver is 29 years old and has been hanging steady at 29 for at least the last 6 years.

Scuba is just a jniche sport so the numbers are never going to approach other main stream sports, but I don't see the signs that the sport is dying.

Biggest problem I see in the industry is just a lot of really poor business people who own dive shops, still relying on a 1970s business model of selling scuba gear as a main income source.

Read the PADI stats again...

"Represents total entry level and continuing education diving certifications for all PADI Offices combined. Divers may have multiple certifications."

It's total number of certs, not total number of divers. So includes AOW, Nitrox, Rescue, Specialties, Etc. So with a total number of certs being flat for the past 10yrs or so, and with many of those certs going to the same/existing divers, that means the absolute number of new divers is on the decline. Factor that in with older divers leaving diving... at some point we all will... you've got a pretty rapidly contracting customer base. And, as mentioned earlier, with the number of shops/instructors/resorts (and presumable manufacturing capacity/etc) growing to accommodate the rapidly increasing demand of 80's-90's (see PADI's chart on number of PADI members and Shops/Resorts) You've got roughly the same number of instructors and shops now as 10yrs ago, but with a contracting customer base. I'm a marketing guy, not an economist... but I know that is a problem.

New customer growth is the lifeblood of any industry... and Scuba Diving ain't got it.

PS - median age being 29 and "holding steady" is meaningless. Guess what the median age of THE WORLD is... Yup - 29yrs old! (http://kff.org/global-indicator/median-age/) and it's been "holding steady" for about the past three decades.

 

[Eric Sedletzky]

How much worse off is the scuba business now than it was in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's, or 1990's, relative to other sports and the general economy?
Did making getting certified easier temorarily boost the participation in diving? If so, why would anybody expect that boost to be sustainable?
Did those people who got certified on easy street drop out because they weren't trained like the divers use to be prior to the 80's?
Did people stick around longer if they had to put in the time and effort it took to get certified in the old days?
If training was the same now as it was back in the 60's would there be fewer divers? but would those divers be more dedicated in all aspects of the sport?

I'm still trying to figure out if scuba is actually dying or if it's just purging dabblers.
There are a lot more manufacturers these days then in the past, but are the pie servings bigger or smaller?

Way back when scuba was in it's infancy here in the US and Rene was the only guy selling the new Aqualung, how many units did he need to sell to stay alive?
What was the annual number of units sold? What was the relative cost of an Aqualung in todays dollars?
The point being, scuba was a micro market and somehow it survived and grew.
Maybe it grew way too big and swollen for it's natural balance point through clever marketing and manuipulation. Maybe it's actually retracting back to what it should be.
A lot of people in the industry made a lot of money during those times. They should just be thankful they got what they got back then and realize this is the new scuba market and they need to adjust for it.
Trying to force the market again is only going to lead to another bubble.

 

[RJP]

I'm still trying to figure out if scuba is actually dying or if it's just purging dabblers.

The dabblers have always been there - in any discretionary leisure activity - and they always self-purge. With the run-up in divers during the steep part of the curve there were more new divers, therefore more absolute dabblers to purge. That simply exacerbates the problem even more.

There are a lot more manufacturers these days then in the past, but are the pie servings bigger or smaller?

Smaller pie, more people eating pie, do the math.

Trying to force the market again is only going to lead to another bubble.

There's a difference between "forcing the market" and "market forces." The only thing worse than having another bubble... is NOT having another bubble. That said, the situation here is not a "bubble" in economic terms. A bubble is dramatic growth, followed by dramatic collapse. We've got a situation of dramatic growth followed by stagnation/contraction. It's a bit different. Getting to the next plateau and stabilizing there would be good for the industry and divers.
Yeah, you're right. People who made their money in the past should just give up and move on

 

[Pullmyfinger]

Today I added up my expenses to date to go from OW to deco pros w/ accompanying gear and it's $10K. And that's diving local.

Don't do that!

---------- Post added December 30th, 2013 at 11:37 PM ----------

I think some of the problem might be tight fisted divers.
I'm spending some vacation time in Florida with my kids; Destin area.

I stopped by a dive shop, just to check it out. While there, I asked about their boat schedule.
The guy told me that it was $90 for a two-tank boat dive. He saw the shocked look on my face....and then I asked....
..."Are you kidding me??.....It's only $90 for a two-tank boat dive?"

That's so cheap! What a deal. I don't see how the boat operation is making much money on that price.
I wish it was that cheap back in Japan.

He told me that many divers in the area acted like it was too much.

With a customer base that isn't willing to spend money, it's no surprise that many shops struggle.