Two German divers drown at Gran Cenote Kalimba at Tulum

[wgw04024]

We have everything we need now from the technical examination. I'll sit down in a few days and finish the report and then Kim will revise it. Should be done sometime in march pending other engagements that need to take precedence.

So with all the air blowing by this guy, where is the report? Looks like this was his last post...

 

[The Chairman]

So with all the air blowing by this guy, where is the report? Looks like this was his last post...

Cold fins?

 

[Izze]

So with all the air blowing by this guy, where is the report? Looks like this was his last post...

It's in the pile of stuff weighing on my conscience. My only excuse is that I am ridiculously busy with work, family and research. We did finish a report for the family which was the highest priority but there is work left to make the report aimed at divers a high quality one. Kim is coming over to Sweden in september to dive with us and the plan is to finish it then. It will be easier when we are on the same continent.

 

[John the Pom]

So I do not disagree with you but my previous point was that it could be that most of cave accidents happen to trained cave divers because they are doing almost all the cave dives in %.

For example, I imagine that most of scuba accidents happen to certified scuba divers because if you are doing scuba diving you are more likely to be certified.

I am interested in knowing:
- what is the number of fatalities in cave diving and broken down per certification
- total number of cave dives done in the year broken down per certification
Basically I would like to be able to answer this question: if I get certified and cave dive for the next 10 years, what's the likelihood I get out alive ?

That would be very valuable information to have, because probability theory teaches us that the number of fatalities per certification level = total number of dives per certification level x probability of a fatality for that certification level.

Having that information would answer the interesting question: does probability of a fatal accident decrease monotonically with certification level and experience? There are many examples of hazardous activities where the probability vs. experience curve is bathtub-shaped because experience and familiarity can lead to complacency or a willingness to take greater risks.

I'm sure there must be efforts going on to compile data like this, but it is easy to see that gathering good-quality data would be quite a difficult undertaking requiring extensive resources. Maybe one of the experienced cave divers on the forum could point you towards good sources.

 

[kensuf]

That would be very valuable information to have, because probability theory teaches us that the number of fatalities per certification level = total number of dives per certification level x probability of a fatality for that certification level.

Having that information would answer the interesting question: does probability of a fatal accident decrease monotonically with certification level and experience? There are many examples of hazardous activities where the probability vs. experience curve is bathtub-shaped because experience and familiarity can lead to complacency or a willingness to take greater risks.

I'm sure there must be efforts going on to compile data like this, but it is easy to see that gathering good-quality data would be quite a difficult undertaking requiring extensive resources. Maybe one of the experienced cave divers on the forum could point you towards good sources.

There's a curve where once someone gains a certain amount of experience, they may become complacent and deviate from accepted protocols to the point that they can start getting into problems that they are unable to overcome. This phenomena is well known and accepted in flying, https://www.faa.gov/data_research/research/med_humanfacs/oamtechreports/2010s/media/201503.pdf (you may also be interested in reading "The Killing Zone" by Paul Craig).

I'm also very curious about the final report. I had heard speculation that shooting video was part of their dive plan and I've wondered if that may have played a role in the fatality. Task loading while shooting photos/video can definitely cause issues, I had two former students "get lost" in a cave about a year ago because they were busy futzing around with a camera and didn't realize the arrows flipped on them. I've also heard stories of a guy that was a well known cave instructor and photographer that got lost within the first 200' of a cave he supposedly knew like the back of his hand because he was farting around with cameras.

 

[infieldg]

There's a curve where once someone gains a certain amount of experience, they may become complacent

Sounds like the Dunning-Kruger effect, popularised by proponents of the flat earth who read wiki and think they understand all science.

 

[Norwegian Cave Diver]

Swimming into the cave while shooting pictures or video should have slowed them down. That would be an advantage for them. If they missed a T then that would/could be a huge problem for them After they drop their stages they continue to use the cameras. Hard for me to understand that neither one of them pay attention to the gas supply?? And they are cave divers. And they are stage divers. IMO it’s no one paying attention to navigation and no one paying attention to gas supply. What have I learnt from this... if two people are on a dive - only one of them is on the camera. The other one is 100% on navigation and checking gas supply for both of them.

 

[BlueTrin]

Sounds like the Dunning-Kruger effect, popularised by proponents of the flat earth who read wiki and think they understand all science.

View attachment 537402

I really think scientific method should be taught at school: with information being so readily available people quote anything that validates their opinion like it was proof that they are right.

In this day and age, you are bound to find on the internet someone who will write an article agreeing with whatever outlandish rubbish you could imagine.

 

[dmaziuk]

I really think scientific method should be taught at school

You're aiming too high. I'd run with "science is not a liberal conspiracy" for a few generations first, but seeing how the New (vs Old) Testament's been doing so far, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[KevinNM]

You're aiming too high. I'd run with "science is not a liberal conspiracy" for a few generations first, but seeing how the New (vs Old) Testament's been doing so far, I wouldn't hold my breath.

I'd like it if the scientists screaming 'science says!' could actually produce their data when the court tells them to produce their date, as opposed to their refusing and instead paying the lawyer costs of the the guy they sue for defamation while claiming vindication. The emperors new clothes was not supposed to be a story about science really works.