Likely, right!
Tulamben, Mount Agung, Current Situation...
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billt4sf
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Well, more chance of warning than from earthquakes where I'm from in SF !
Are you guys still operating in the face of all this uncertainty? You're not so freaked-out that all you can do is sit around and drink beer?
- Bill
I've been on Bali since September 5 with intentions of making six inland stops on a slow transit to Tulamben on October 3, where I was to do six diving days with Mata Hari. I canceled the last four stops, including Tulamben, on Saturday night, since they were all in or near the exclusion zone. I'm now hanging out in Denbantas at the house of a Balinese friend. Tomorrow morning I'm off to Pemuteran/Menjangan for five days of diving, and the chance that I might just hang out there until my flight to Manado on October 10th, providing all is good at the airport. Pemuteran is some 60 miles from the volcano. What reports I've seen from reliable sources in the last couple days seem to point pretty solidly to an eruption in the next 2-3 days or so. We'll see ...
billt4sf
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meagicano
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I'm due to fly to Bali on Oct 12, arriving on the 13th and meeting my friend on the 14th. We received an update from the dive shop we're booked with saying that all is as normal in Padang Bai and that some evacuees were arriving into the area. I took a look at the map, and I'm a bit surprised at how close it is to the volcano.
We have three days booked in Nusa Lembongan, three or four in Padang Bai and 6 in Tulamben towards the end of the trip. We haven't heard anything from our provider or accommodation in Tulamben - only the Padang Bai operator has contacted us. We have until October 2nd to make a decision regarding the accommodations as that's the last day we can cancel in full. Though I'm not sure how my friend feels - she has been very quiet on this subject.
I have respiratory problems that can be triggered by the environment - large amounts of smoke, for example. Everything I'm hearing about a post-eruption Bali makes me nervous. I see people on Facebook buying respiratory masks in vasts quantities before heading on vacation... and then I see photos of evacuees basically piled into whatever shelter they can find.
I also have to think through the ethics of travelling somewhere to enjoy a vacation when there are thousands of people living in what are basically refugee camps and lean-tos. It feels a bit too close to fiddling while Rome burns.
Also - it looks like my trip interruption insurance will be invalidated if I choose to fly because, at this point, any eruption wouldn't be considered unforeseen or unexpected.
Dan
Contributor
Well, data don't lie:
Global Volcanism Program | Agung
Peningkatan Status G. Agung dari SIAGA (Level III) ke AWAS (Level IV) 22 September 2017 Pkl. 20.30 WITA
Just look at the frequencies & amplitudes fir the last week in the charts below:
Global Volcanism Program | Agung
Peningkatan Status G. Agung dari SIAGA (Level III) ke AWAS (Level IV) 22 September 2017 Pkl. 20.30 WITA
Just look at the frequencies & amplitudes fir the last week in the charts below:
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meagicano - Unless it's been lowered, the exclusion zone was 12km, which is essentially right at Tulamben. Your call, but personally I would pass on Tulamben. Actually, I just did. I realize it's a total crapshoot, but I've read and heard enough to not like the odds. Additionally, volcanic ash is essentially glass shards, and if you have a respiratory issue, well ...
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meagicano
Contributor
Tulamben is definitely out. I find it odd no one has reached out to us, but even if things settle a bit I'm not sure I feel comfortable heading there knowing there is still elevated risk.
I read that some places have restarted operations in Amed again, after evacuating, since it may no longer be part of an evacuation zone?
I spent last night reading about the makeup of volcanic ash.... it isn't very pretty.
Latest from Villa Alba in Tulamben..
"Monday . ( I think).
This shot taken today at 13:00 hrs
showing cloud on Agung. I was extracting the two main Bauer compressors, tv and video systems and various other items. Heading back tomorrow to get the boat moved to a safer harbour now that the engines have been repaired and overhauled we can move her. Plus i will try and get the new coffee machine out as well. Quite a feeling working on the removal of this equipment with the ground rumbling beneath your feet but today I saved approx $30,000 US (of equipment) and it is fine to say be safe but without all the gear that we have managed to save we will not be in business at all and well being Scottish I have to try and get ready to start again if the worst happens. The tremors today seemed to be different from previous and they are more of a bang, bang, bang rather than a trembling feeling. Today I was delighted at how many villagers that came to assist in the lifting of the heavy compressors and our manager said that they were waiting for me to arrive and strip down the compressors for transport before they themselves went to where their families had evacuated to!!
So let us hope that Agung remains quiet for a few more days at least to allow us to complete the flitting( old Scottish word) as it is becoming tiring with 5 hours driving every day then working away whilst there.fingers crossed and all that."
As for my personal opinion as to whether if I were booked on a vacation there at the moment. I'd cancel. I'd first talk to my insurance, because they may not want to pay up if there is no eruption, and again my not wish to pay up if there is as it'ds a known event with warning
The evacuation areas are those likely to be hit by fast moving Lava and pyrocastic flows. The whole island will get rocks and ash hurled at them.
There will be a huge stretch on the emergency services and resources dealing with those who live there without adding more vactationers
"Monday . ( I think).
This shot taken today at 13:00 hrs
showing cloud on Agung. I was extracting the two main Bauer compressors, tv and video systems and various other items. Heading back tomorrow to get the boat moved to a safer harbour now that the engines have been repaired and overhauled we can move her. Plus i will try and get the new coffee machine out as well. Quite a feeling working on the removal of this equipment with the ground rumbling beneath your feet but today I saved approx $30,000 US (of equipment) and it is fine to say be safe but without all the gear that we have managed to save we will not be in business at all and well being Scottish I have to try and get ready to start again if the worst happens. The tremors today seemed to be different from previous and they are more of a bang, bang, bang rather than a trembling feeling. Today I was delighted at how many villagers that came to assist in the lifting of the heavy compressors and our manager said that they were waiting for me to arrive and strip down the compressors for transport before they themselves went to where their families had evacuated to!!So let us hope that Agung remains quiet for a few more days at least to allow us to complete the flitting( old Scottish word) as it is becoming tiring with 5 hours driving every day then working away whilst there.fingers crossed and all that."
As for my personal opinion as to whether if I were booked on a vacation there at the moment. I'd cancel. I'd first talk to my insurance, because they may not want to pay up if there is no eruption, and again my not wish to pay up if there is as it'ds a known event with warning
The evacuation areas are those likely to be hit by fast moving Lava and pyrocastic flows. The whole island will get rocks and ash hurled at them.
There will be a huge stretch on the emergency services and resources dealing with those who live there without adding more vactationers
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