The Swine Flu thing...

[teknitroxdiver]

Yeah we really don't need a zillion swine flu threads going on here. Let's flush this one.

 

[pilot fish]

When all is said and done, WE ALL WANTED THE SAME THING - a peaceful, safe Coz so we could dive there and have fun. Some pigs had other intentions. Hey, that's why they are called pigs. We just interpreted the information and warnings differently.

To Coz

For once we're all in agreement! And they said that could only happen when Pigs Fly!

Oh yeah, Swine Flu!

 

[DandyDon]

Locking the thread would be kinda pointless as we're certainly not finished with the discussion. It's also showed up on other threads, some of which were moved here after Reporting to Mods as there is little point of additional threads, but if you convinced a Mod to close this one - then you'd have so many others. It damned sure ain't over. Sorry it was so inconvenient to your businesses and wish you well on obtaining some of the $1.3 billion stimulus package the Mexican government is announcing, but there were some more important considerations in play. We're not even sure it's over in the Yuc-Pen.

I join everyone in hoping that the actions of the last week have extinguished the flames for now. From: Mexico tries to restart economy after flu shutdown - emphasis mine...

Carstens said the outbreak has cost Mexico's economy at least $2.2 billion, and announced a $1.3 billion stimulus package, mostly for small businesses and tourism, the sectors hardest hit by the epidemic. The government will temporarily cut health insurance payments for small businesses and reduce taxes for airlines and cruise ships.
Universities and high schools were being scrubbed down before students return Thursday, and younger schoolchildren are to report back to school May 11 creating potential pools of contagion that experts worry could make the virus come back.
The schools will reopen even as experts asked restaurants to keep their customers nearly two meters (yards) apart, and Mexico's soccer federation announced that attendance will not be allowed at this weekend's season-ending games.
Calderon called it a return to "normalcy." But flu experts warned that Mexico, like the rest of the world, needs to remain on guard, and said severe cases could surface in the U.S. as well with the virus spreading in a growing number of states.
"We are by no means out of the woods," said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC.
The World Health Organization was shipping 2.4 million treatments of antiflu drugs to the 72 countries "most in need." The countries include Mexico, hardest hit by the outbreak. Others include those countries unable to afford stockpiles of the drugs.
As of Tuesday, Mexico had 840 confirmed cases, and U.S. cases grew to at least 380 in 36 states.
Few details have been released about the most recent swine flu death in the U.S., but officials said the victim was a woman with chronic health problems who lived on the U.S.-Mexico border. The country's first death occurred last week when a boy from Mexico died at a Houston hospital.
Globally, the virus has infected more than 1,490 in 21 countries, according to the World Health Organization and other health bodies. South Korea, Italy and Germany all reported new cases Tuesday. Experts said the known cases were almost certainly only a fraction of the real total.
World health officials have said a pandemic could be declared in the days to come a reflection of the swine flu's geographic spread, not its severity. Health Secretary Jose Cordova said those infected appeared to pass the virus on to an average of 1.4 other people, near the normal flu rate of around 1.3.
WHO was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak had begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer only to geographic spread and not to the severity of an illness. The two most recent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were relatively mild.
Margaret Chan, WHO director general, said the level will be raised if swine flu is found in another region outside North America, showing very clear evidence of community-level transmission."
The Southern Hemisphere is particularly at risk. While Africa still hasn't reported any swine flu infections and New Zealand is the only country south of the equator with confirmed cases, winter is only weeks away. Experts worry that typical winter flus could combine with swine flu, creating a new strain that is more contagious or dangerous.
"You have this risk of an additional virus that could essentially cause two outbreaks at once," Dr. Jon Andrus said at the Pan American Health Organization's headquarters in Washington.
Still, the U.N. health agency urged governments to avoid unproven actions to contain the disease, including group quarantines of travelers from Mexico and bans on pork imports.

 

[Christi]

No arguments that there will be a second wave - and who knows at this point how much more contagious it will be or how much more dangerous than the current wave it will be. That remains to be seen - but at that point it is going to be everywhere and won't be confined to one area or country - so EVERYONE/EVERYWHERE will need to be aware - but not PANIC! Mass panic and pandemonium gets us NOWHERE!

The point is to stay as healthy as possible, stay home if you're sick, stay away from sick people, wash your hands, and practice good hygiene to minimize your risks of getting this new flu.

I've had some cancellations, but in the big scheme of things not all that bad. We still ran with two boats part of this week and next week will be a slow week. We pick up again in mid-May and things look good for June and July.

My main point in all of this was to keep it all in perspective (not to be extremists in either direction) and to really examine the facts, risks, etc.

 

[lamont]

As member of this forum I hereby propose this thread be locked so it can disappear into oblivion, as the H1N1 hype does.

Does anyone second and third this motion??

I'm voting against.

If we calm down there is still news which is worthwhile to monitor and discuss.

The US reported its 2nd death, which was a woman who had other health issues. The statistics now seem to fit pretty well with normal influenza -- with 500 confirmed cases and 700+ suspected and probably >>1,000 actual infections, including completely unreported cases, then 2 deaths is a 0.1-0.2% rate, which is 'normal'. And the two deaths have been in a toddler and in someone with a pre-existing chronic condition.

And where it bears more watching is "Some health experts said the virus could surge in the southern hemisphere when the winter begins". We still need to see if we get outbreaks in Australia, South America and Africa starting in June/July and peaking in Aug/Sep. Again, this isn't reason to panic, but that will be the first indication of if this will totally fizzle, or will produce typical influenza virulence, or will cause an unusually bad epidemic/mild pandemic flu year. Based on how it is spreading outside of the flu season in the northern hemisphere, the southern hemisphere could get hit with a bad flu year.

There's also a scientific curiosity question which remains to be answered as to if this strain of flu virus will compare against the existing H1N1 and H2N3 viruses that circulate in the human population. It could fizzle completely, could outcompete all the other and become dominant, or it could widen the genetic diversity of viruses infecting the human population and "share" with the other strains.

 

[DandyDon]

No argument with any one this at all...

No arguments that there will be a second wave - and who knows at this point how much more contagious it will be or how much more dangerous than the current wave it will be. That remains to be seen - but at that point it is going to be everywhere and won't be confined to one area or country - so EVERYONE/EVERYWHERE will need to be aware - but not PANIC! Mass panic and pandemonium gets us NOWHERE!

The point is to stay as healthy as possible, stay home if you're sick, stay away from sick people, wash your hands, and practice good hygiene to minimize your risks of getting this new flu.

I've had some cancellations, but in the big scheme of things not all that bad. We still ran with two boats part of this week and next week will be a slow week. We pick up again in mid-May and things look good for June and July.

My main point in all of this was to keep it all in perspective (not to be extremists in either direction) and to really examine the facts, risks, etc.

And I hope that the actions that were able to slow this A(H1N1) continue to slow it, that we keep our guard up enough to maintain the lull. I know that someone said "there will never be flu on Cozumel" and that would be nice if true, but we can't count on that either. We can keep up guard and hope will dealing with infection risks reasonably tho.

From: Experts: Mild swine flu could quickly turn deadly

WASHINGTON (AP) 3 hours ago A flu virus is a powerhouse of evolution, mutating at the maximum speed nature allows. A mild virus can morph into a killer and vice versa.
One change already made this year's swine flu more of a problem, helping it spread more easily among people. The big question is: What mutations are next? That's why scientists are watching it so closely.
"There are no rules to flu viruses; they are just so mutable," said Dr. Paul Glezen, a flu epidemiologist at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "The fact that it changes all the time really confounds our efforts to control it."
Think of flu's evolution like a family tree: In the current flu's distant ancestry are last century's three pandemics. But its more immediate relatives are swine flu strains that were no big deal to humans.
The good news right now is that this flu has lost some of the most dangerous genetic traits of past pandemics. The bad news is that it's gained something its parents didn't have: the ability to spread from human to human.

 

[Christi]

I know that someone said "there will never be flu on Cozumel" and that would be nice if true, but we can't count on that either. We can keep up guard and hope will dealing with infection risks reasonably tho.

I didn't see where anyone said there would never be flu here...of course I could have missed it in 50+ pages I don't think anyone ever believed that we were totally immune from it...but the cases here on the island are still 0 as of today anyway...not saying it won't ever reach us - just that the current risk and foreseeable risks of contracting it here at this time are very, very low.

 

[Prop Joe]

FYI... Might want to check with your airline. Looks like some carriers are cutting back flights. For all of you lucky enough to get off work and go to Cozumel:
Major North American carriers cut flights to Mexico

I wish I could get some extra time off for a summer trip.
I'm working on the boss to get his 16 year old son to get certified, then I could get the time off, if I help show them around the island...
I can do that!!!

 

[CozumelAntonio]

:mooner:

 

[DandyDon]

I didn't see where anyone said there would never be flu here...of course I could have missed it in 50+ pages

Yep. I asked if he was going to put that on a T-shirt too...?

:mooner:

FYI... Might want to check with your airline. Looks like some carriers are cutting back flights. For all of you lucky enough to get off work and go to Cozumel:
Major North American carriers cut flights to Mexico

I wish I could get some extra time off for a summer trip.
I'm working on the boss to get his 16 year old son to get certified, then I could get the time off, if I help show them around the island...
I can do that!!!

Yep they cut back last week, now overloaded so we're hoping to see more flights reinstated now. There is a thread about this on this forum.

Hope you get to go. Looking forward to my next trip...!