The risk of a shark attack when diving inshore waters of Western Australia

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A few people were killed by wild animals. Some of them were carrying bait.

If I went hiking in grizzly country with raw meat strung on my belt, who would blame a bear for harming while me coming after that meat? It's ludicrous that you would expect absolute safety from wild animals in the wild, especially while engaging in demonstrably riskier behaviors.

Robust apex predator populations are a sign of a healthy ecosystem. I have multiple apex predators living in my country and they occasionally kill people. I'm a huge supporter of more of them, not fewer.

Killing sharks to make the ocean safer by making death rates an even smaller fraction of lightning strikes or coconuts is the dumbest nature policy I've heard of since we in the US went about exterminating various predators back when we didn't know better.

We all know better now.
 
If sharks started walking on land and eating people on their way to work or outside gas stations I might be up for a cull. But they're not. You play in the sea, that's the risk you take. I accept that risk. If you're not prepared to then perhaps you should not venture. The whole idea of culling and the reasons purported for it are, IMO, moronic. We are not the center of the universe nor the only things living in it although I fear if we continue to destroy ecosystems at the rate we currently are one day we might well be.
 
This study by Peter Sprivilus highlights the increased risk of a shark attack in recent years and notes there is a strong correlation between an increase in the number of whales off the coast and the number of shark attacks.

February 2014: read Western Australian Coastal Shark Bites: A risk assessment (PDF 549kb) by Peter Sprivulis from the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of Western Australia.

Increased great white shark attacks in Western Australia since the 1990s may be connected to the increasing number of migrating humpback and other whale species which lure their scavengers close to shore.

Conclusion: As whale abundance increases off the coast of Western Australia, it is reasonable to predict that, in the absence of effective personal or policy based risk mitigation, the risk of white shark bite when undertaking recreational water activities off the southwest coast of WA will continue to increase. However, the risk of shark bite for beachgoers engaged in bathing activities less than 25m from shore in shallow water during the WA summer, is likely to remain very low, and well below the risk of other recreational activities commonly undertaken in WA.

Shark attacks, whale numbers in Western Australia

An obvious inference to draw from this is that the increased number of whales attracts more sharks resulting in a greater risk of attack.

That begs the question, if the number of white pointers have increased, where do they come from? The two obvious sources are a natural increase due to reproduction and sharks migrating from other parts of the world to Western Australia.

The likelihood of a increase by reproduction is hotly debated. Some of the experts claim it is impossible. Others like Peter Rogers contend this claim.

Peter Rogers, who served as head of the department between 1991 and 2006, has rebuffed claims by researchers it was biologically impossible for mature white shark numbers to be increasing.

But Dr Rogers, who until Easter was the chairman of the WA Marine Science Institution, disputed the comments by saying the species had been on the rebound for at least 10 years before they were protected.

According to Dr Rogers, the closure of WA's last remaining whaling station in Albany in 1978 heralded the turning point because up until then game fishermen could easily target great whites drawn to the area.

Since then, he noted, the predators had become significantly more elusive and along with a rebound in the populations of seals and whales - their natural prey - it was likely their numbers would have risen accordingly.

"All the things were positive for it at a much earlier time than simply bringing in the protection and therefore the recovery of white pointers is much earlier than people think," Dr Rogers said.

"The fad in terms of catching great white sharks did drop off before the protection came in."

Experts clash over shark numbers - Yahoo!7

White pointers were protected in this state about 16 years ago. The rate of growth of white pointers is indicated in the articles below:

These pups when born, are 1.5 metres long, hence the necessary large size of the birth mother, and like any new born in wildlife, not all of those will survive. Once born, the perfectly developed little white sharks grow at a rapid rate of 30cm per year until they're 3 metres in length. Their growth rate then slows down with males expecting to reach maturity at 7-9 years of age at a length of 3.5 to 4 metres. The females mature later than the males at 12-17 years of age at a larger length of 4.5 to 5 metres.

Article | Great White Sharks - The Truth | Underwater Australasia

and:

Great white sharks reach sexual maturity at around 10 years of age. They probably do not breed ever year.

http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/5105/Primefact_Great_white_shark.pdf

Based on these numbers, it would take a white pointer 6 years to reach a size of 3 m. At that size they can be considered a maneaters, so it seems reasonable to attribute a significant increase in the population to reproduction.

It is known that white pointers can migrate large distances. Sharks tagged in Australia have been detected in South Africa. It seems reasonable to attribute part of the population increase to white pointers aggregating around an abundant food sources.

I had a recent discussion with a diver who claimed that the reason for the increase in attacks is that sharks are moving inshore because fish stocks have been depleted offshore. I asked him if he knew how many professional fishermen there catching fish offshore and how much they were catching. Needless to say he didn't know.

Our fish stocks are relatively well managed. Local fishermen are very aware of stringent catch limits that have been imposed to ensure fish populations remain viable. That is one aspect of the work done by Fisheries WA that I do support. The Fisheries WA website agrees:

Sharks generally feed on a variety of prey species and because WA has well managed fish stocks there is no reason for sharks to come inshore more often.

No Cookies | Perth Now

Just to clarify, I suspect that when many people say 'inshore waters' they are referring to areas near the beach shore line used by surfers and swimmers. I'm using the term to refer to waters that are within say 20-30 km of the coastline. White pointers that are within that distance of the shore can be at the beach line in a matter of an hour or two.

So a more realistic explanation to me would be sharks are being drawn to our inshore waters by an abundance of food like whales and fish.

Keep in mind that whales are not the only food source of the white pointer.

White sharks feed on a wide variety of prey species at all life history stages although certain prey appear to be more important at particular life history stages (e.g. snapper, Australian salmon and various species of rays in juveniles and pinnipeds in adults).

http://www.environment.gov.au/syste...c2b45ad1e9/files/white-shark-issues-paper.pdf

They also eat seals, salmon and snapper. Divers, fishermen and spearfishermen who live locally will be very aware of the local aggregation of snapper near Perth that occurs when they spawn and the increased numbers of white pointers seen during that time.

Shortly before being photographed from a boat, the shark had "propped" within centimetres of Joe Petrovich's spear gun while he and mate Jacques DeVilliers dived for pink snapper last month, about 3km from Alcoa jetty.

No Cookies | Perth Now

It seems likely that the aggregation and migration of these food sources will also affect the presence of white pointers along out coast.

Salmon form very large schools in southern waters and head westwards in mid to late summer, continuing up the west coast as far as Perth - subject to inshore water temperatures. Spawning occurs between March and May and mostly away from the coast. Salmon eggs are planktonic and ultimately find their way offshore and drift south and eastwards with the aid of the warm Leeuwin Current.

WA Salmon

In some locations, pink snapper gather seasonally to spawn in large schools called ‘aggregations’. The best known of these occur in Shark Bay and in Cockburn and Warnbro sounds off the Perth metropolitan area.

http://www.fish.wa.gov.au/Documents/recreational_fishing/fact_sheets/fact_sheet_pink_snapper.pdf

The hump back whale migration is illustrated in the following diagram.


Note that the whales head up and down the coast at different times of the year.

---------- Post added February 16th, 2014 at 05:35 AM ----------

Just to give you an idea of the kind of sneaky tactics used in the past by Fisheries WA that breeds suspicion. The article below describes the uproar caused a few years back by some Fisheries WA video footage of a white pointer taken a few kilometres offshore.

Someone got hold of the footage and posted it on a local diving website and Youtube. The location is also a popular dive location. Some of the local divers got justifiably irate that the information was not being released to the public.

When the tagging and tracking of sharks first began over here none of the information was released to the public. So you had public funded data collection and research that was not available to the public. My recollection is that this incident occurred during that time. Since that time we get snippets of information in the form of live updates to a surf life saving website.

From the article:

A department spokesman said it was unclear how the four-minute video ended up on the internet and who removed it days later.

Fisheries strategic compliance manager Tina Thorne said local council rangers and Water Police were alerted about the shark, but not the general public, because the creature was a long way offshore and posed no immediate public hazard.

Also this week, some of WA's most experienced fishermen accused the State Government and Fisheries of talking down the number of sharks menacing our waters.

Fisheries officers have been insisting great white sharks are extremely slow to breed and a recovery of the population will take decades.

Mr Ballard said: "I have fished locally by boat up to 400 hours a year for about 15 years and never encountered a white shark until 14 months ago. Since then I have seen four on separate occasions and had many friends who have encountered them also."

But Ms Thorne said the claims made by fishermen "do not reflect the reality".

No Cookies | Perth Now
 
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Since 1986, we are looking at a conservative estimate of a decline in the great white shark population of 79%. There is no doubt that shark populations are in severe decline worldwide.
- How severe are shark population decreases, and how do we know? | Southern Fried Science
- CCSA - Great White Shark information
- Great White Shark conservation
- http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/5105/Primefact_Great_white_shark.pdf
- Great white shark population lower than previously believed - CSMonitor.com

So to answer the title of your post...Great White shark populations are NOT on the increase. Consult people of science such as marine biologists and those dedicated to studying the marine ecosystem. Avoid 'anecdotal' chats with commercial fishermen that see sharks as competition. Perhaps you might spend your energies on improving road safety in WA:
Crash statistics | Western Australia Police



Even your fellow Australians agree. There is no doubt.
 

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How did the authorities determine that the white pointer was threatened? Here is a link to a document that provides the government guidelines on how to answer that question. It is called:

“Survey guidelines for Australia’s threatened fish”
“Guidelines for detecting fish listed as threatened under the Environment Protection and
Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999.”

Don’t be put off by the title. The steps it suggests are really quite simple. Here is how to conduct the survey for white pointers (great whites).

Great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias)

Great white sharks have been demonstrated to make significantly large movements, although the reasons for these movements are unknown. Some feeding migrations are known, with sharks common around seal colonies.

The study of the great white shark has often involved ‘chumming’, whereby sharks are lured to boats by providing a berley trail that takes advantage of the sharks’ keen sense of smell. The great white shark, if in the area and hungry, then follows the boat and observations can be made. It is unknown how successful the method is in determining the presence or absence of the species in an area and is a practice that may change the behaviour of the animal towards any boats in the area. Determining presence or absence will require discussion with relevant experts or locals (fishermen or diving groups) rather than active observational efforts.
http://www.environment.gov.au/syste...e66a61514f53/files/survey-guidelines-fish.pdf

It stands to reason that if these guidelines are considered adequate for deciding on whether the survival of a shark species was in the balance, the same guidelines would be adequate to determine their survival was not threatened.

Now have another look at the guidelines. Here is my paraphrasing of the method.

Get a big bucket of burley and a boat. Jump in the boat and go to where white pointers hang out.

Throw burley into the water and count the number of white pointers you see following the boat.

This probably won’t work because white pointers are hard to find and even if you did find some the results will be skewed once the local whites work out they can get food from your boat.

A better way would be to talk to the local divers and fishermen and see what they have to say.

Need I say any more?
 
This study by Peter Sprivilus highlights the increased risk of a shark attack in recent years and notes there is a strong correlation between an increase in the number of whales off the coast and the number of shark attacks.

So in other words the whale population is rebounding from decades of severe hunting in the past and the ecosystem is beginning to re-establish its balance. Here seal and sea lion populations are rebounding from decades of hunting in the past and it is believed (although we have little scientific proof) that great white populations are increasing as some of their primary prey species increases.

Although I dive in waters where great whites are present, and have even had them pass close to me (as have friends), for some reason they don't seem too interested in us as potential food. I have a feeling spear fishing is not as popular here in SoCal as it is in Australia which may be a factor. I have nothing against responsible spear fishers, but they do add an element of additional risk to their diving.
 
And where is your evidence or source to support the outrageous claim that this will be the result of catching and killing a few sharks in our local waters with a drum line.
Nice try thankfully not ad hominem but still slight of word by way of placing words in my mouth. I did not say anything about the impact of "killing a few sharks" I said the shark numbers were relevant. Refuting your claim that they weren't. I stated, that was because maintaing healthy numbers of apex predators in a marine environment, is quite relevant. I then inferred that a healthy marine environment was likely to be much more important in helping to keep humans alive ( by inference of a healthy environment will help maintain a usable sea food supply) then attempting to prevent a few human deaths a year by culling .
Do you really need me to provide evidence of the relationship of apex predators and healthy ecosystems ?



The information was extracted from statistics provided on the site. In this case you will need to expend a little more effort than simply regurgitating a few irrelevant comments from someone else. You can easily find the statistics by googling Shark Attack Files SAS.
I explained I did spent time trying to find the table you posted it was not in any of the SAS pages I could access . Is it a secret? do you have to be in the club? Can you provide the link to that exact table or not ? Or can you only continue to be insulting ?


More evidence of the drastic increase in the number of white pointers off the West Australian coast:

Your so called evidence is from " Head of the shark fishermen's association in WA ...." A WA abalone diver"
and ...."The manager of a major abalone business in Esperance"

and finally 1
Shark expert and author Hugh Edwards, who opposes the cull, said the data highlighted the importance of researching shark behaviour.

you put this in bold "What it shows is there's probably a lot more sharks than we think there are but not this "and that mostly they behave themselves and that the risks of attacks are very slight," he said.

It is of course understandable why shark fisherman and abalone divers would want to establish an increase in shark numbers in hopes of using this to possibly either further their bottom line ( shark fishermen buy being allowed to offer commercial GW fishing trips) or reduce the risk factor for making money ( abalone divers ) but of course this makes at the very least, what they are reporting highly subjective, not inherently good or bad but still subjective, and by itself is still not a good objective reason to reduce shark numbers.

BUT lets say for sake discussion that OK the shark numbers have increased unfortunately even if this correct, That as you stated is actually not THE relevant question , which as I stated early on ,compared to WHAT EXACTLY ?
To numbers prior to protection? Which may in fact be numbers already artificially reduced and not actually a healthy number? That is relevant question.


Unfortunately you may not realize it but you have painted yourself into a corner in terms of reasoning.

Because if you are correct and GW numbers have in fact "drastically increased" then then as you say " catching and killing a few sharks in our local waters with a drum line." will then have no real impact towards accomplishing the stated goal of reducing numbers of sharks thereby have no real consequence of "reducing attack numbers"

Nevermind the fact that. (From your own posted info)

“The use of drum lines to capture sharks is designed to have a localised impact on the relative number of individuals of the targeted species within the MMAs (Marine Monitored Areas), the killing of a few isolated individuals of the target species over a short period of time is therefore unlikely to generate even a measurable effect on these species at a population level,” he wrote.


Coupled with the fact that drum lines in fact can and do often kill indiscriminately any fish or mammal in the area, make their use then not only ineffective (as per your "drastically increased numbers') in the stated goal but also detrimental to the eco system in general. So logically and reasonably they in fact should not be implemented .
 
I’ve previously highlighted the growing scepticism and frustration of people in Western Australia to the growing number of fatal shark attacks and the failure of the government and government agencies like Fisheries WA to deal with the problem.

One of the big government initiative has been the ‘Shark Response Unit’ created within Fisheries WA. You can read the stated objectives of the unit and about its efforts in shark tagging and monitoring here:
Shark response unit

I’m not sure where their objectives came from, but it is obvious that the department’s basic philosophy is that protecting sharks is the priority and if a man eating shark is in the water people should stay out of the water or accept the risk of getting eaten. I believe this approach is built on the greeny ideology that the ocean is the shark’s domain and you enter at your own risk. The government echoed these sentiments for a number of years up until recently.

During that time the fatal shark attacks grew steadily until this last one which was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Each fatal attack took a big toll on the local community. People were becoming more enraged and outspoken by the lack of action. Colin Barnett came to understand the harsh reality of the greeny ideology he had quoted so glibly in the past and that protecting beach goers and human life was the priority.

But it seems that the Fisheries WA scientists continue to cling stubbornly to this ideology. The following interview took place in March last year with Rory McAuley, a principal research scientist at the department. Questions were raised in the interview about using satellite tracking to hunt down and kill tagged sharks that threatened the safety of the public. Here are his responses:

Mr McAuley says the shark tracking information is only supposed to be used for scientific and public safety purposes, but he acknowledges it could be used to catch and kill sharks. Invariably after a shark attack, or when a big shark comes close to a beach, there are people who say the shark should be destroyed. Mr McAuley is worried about perverse outcomes from his research project—particularly the likelihood that tagged sharks would be easier to track and kill.

'The information we collect in real time on shark occurrences off beaches are only provided to authorities,' he says. 'The real-time information is intended for pre-emptive safety responses—not for targeting those sharks for retribution or elimination. But there is a risk that by highlighting these shark hazards when they present themselves that people will use that as an opportunity to catch those sharks and remove them.'

The whole issue of killing sharks that pose a threat is a very uncomfortable one for researchers and shark managers. Although there is an argument that says that sharks that have attacked humans may need to be destroyed because they could remain in proximity to beaches and strike again, the ethics of using scientific research to carry out hunt and kill policies is fraught with complexity, Mr McAuley says.
Taming the sharks - Background Briefing - ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

On the one hand Mr McAuley claims the tracking information is intended for the public’s safety. But he then goes on to say that using the data to track and kill animals that pose a safety risk is perverse. He says that the satellite tracking should only be used to warn the public of the presence of a shark.

The interviewer describes a scenario whereby a tagged man-eating shark has killed someone and is swimming in an area near other people. Would the authorities then use this satellite tracking to locate and destroy the offending shark?

In responding Mr McAuley argues that establishing the ethics of this course of action is complex.

Why you may well ask? What is the ethical dilemma that prevents destroying a man-eating shark that has just killed someone and say now is swimming in close proximity to other beach goers? This response shows his real motive. Because it might upset some of the other privately run organisations like the Rodney Fox Foundation with whom they are sharing tracking data.

This is confirmed in the comments of a researcher in that company:

'If that were to happen the likelihood is we would stop tagging,' she says. 'If it was going to occur that we were enabling people to hunt those sharks more easily then we would have to consider stopping that kind of tagging completely in order to protect the sharks.'

You can learn about the Rodney Fox business and company objectives here:
https://www.rodneyfox.com.au/index....rentDriven=2147259961&currentContent=45204997

Basically it is a company that offers shark tours and tags and tracks sharks. It seems to have a strong conservation focus. I wouldn’t call upsetting this company a complex ethical dilemma. It sounds more like a conflict of interest - for both parties.

Mr McAuley is paid by the public and holds his office primarily to serve the interests of the public. In this case public safety should be the priority. It is becoming increasingly apparent that culling white pointers is not a risk mitigating strategy that Mr McAuley and his department are prepared to consider. They may be ideologically opposed to the idea. That being the case, the real moral and ethical dilemma to address is whether they have any right to use public funds and public office to promote a personal ideology that compromises the safety of the beach going public.

This article goes on to highlight the practical difficulties of issuing warnings and closing beaches as suggested by Fisheries WA. Too many beach closures and families will rightly start to get edgy and annoyed - especially on a stinking hot Perth day in the middle of summer with all the kids in tow. It is understandable that people will ignore the warnings and enter the water or find beaches that are not patrolled. Then the risk of an attack is real.

The same applies to divers. In a recent case a dive instructor on a charter was ordered out of the water because a large white pointer had been seem in the area. The instructor eventually jumped back into the water and finished the course. A couple of the students had seen the white pointer come to within 15 m during the course. The warning system had worked as well as it could but divers' safety was still compromised.

---------- Post added February 16th, 2014 at 02:14 PM ----------

So in other words the whale population is rebounding from decades of severe hunting in the past and the ecosystem is beginning to re-establish its balance. Here seal and sea lion populations are rebounding from decades of hunting in the past and it is believed (although we have little scientific proof) that great white populations are increasing as some of their primary prey species increases.

Although I dive in waters where great whites are present, and have even had them pass close to me (as have friends), for some reason they don't seem too interested in us as potential food. I have a feeling spear fishing is not as popular here in SoCal as it is in Australia which may be a factor. I have nothing against responsible spear fishers, but they do add an element of additional risk to their diving.

There is an abundance of hump backs off our coast and the number continues to grow. Some would say there are too many.

I see there have been fatal white pointer attacks in Southern California but then your population density is much higher than here. Over here I'd consider any encounter with a white pointer to be potentially fatal and to be avoided but then again it's the ones you don't see that are the problem.

Maybe it is just that our whites are more aggressive.

Out of the 29 recorded fatal attacks here since 1866 one was a spear fisherman and that was back in 1967.
 
This article goes on to highlight the practical difficulties of issuing warnings and closing beaches as suggested by Fisheries WA. Too many beach closures and families will rightly start to get edgy and annoyed - especially on a stinking hot Perth day in the middle of summer with all the kids in tow. It is understandable that people will ignore the warnings and enter the water or find beaches that are not patrolled. Then the risk of an attack is real.

The same applies to divers. In a recent case a dive instructor on a charter was ordered out of the water because a large white pointer had been seem in the area. The instructor eventually jumped back into the water and finished the course. A couple of the students had seen the white pointer come to within 15 m during the course. The warning system had worked as well as it could but divers' safety was still compromised.

Even duct tape can't fix stupid.

You advocate killing animals because people put themselves in front of their jaws (no pun intended) in spite of being warned about the danger? DARWIN. Don't blame or punish the animal.

You have a strong bias showing in your constant use of the phrase "man-eating shark". How do you discriminate between those that have killed and those that have not? Or do you care? Selective culling of land based predators that have killed typically targets those specific animals. Seems you would be happy to eradicate any white that comes within spitting distance of WA.
 
Unfortunately you may not realize it but you have painted yourself into a corner in terms of reasoning.

Because if you are correct and GW numbers have in fact "drastically increased" then then as you say " catching and killing a few sharks in our local waters with a drum line." will then have no real impact towards accomplishing the stated goal of reducing numbers of sharks thereby have no real consequence of "reducing attack numbers"

Nevermind the fact that. (From your own posted info)

“The use of drum lines to capture sharks is designed to have a localised impact on the relative number of individuals of the targeted species within the MMAs (Marine Monitored Areas), the killing of a few isolated individuals of the target species over a short period of time is therefore unlikely to generate even a measurable effect on these species at a population level,” he wrote.
Coupled with the fact that drum lines in fact can and do often kill indiscriminately any fish or mammal in the area, make their use then not only ineffective (as per your "drastically increased numbers') in the stated goal but also detrimental to the eco system in general. So logically and reasonably they in fact should not be implemented .

It is fair to say that the current approach is technically not a cull though most call it the same. The idea is to place drum lines in locations near populated beaches. It has it's problems and I'm not convinced it will be effective without a more targeted cull by fishermen but we shall see. As mentioned previously the indications are that it has been effective in Queensland.

---------- Post added February 16th, 2014 at 02:53 PM ----------

Even duct tape can't fix stupid.

You advocate killing animals because people put themselves in front of their jaws (no pun intended) in spite of being warned about the danger? DARWIN. Don't blame or punish the animal.

You have a strong bias showing in your constant use of the phrase "man-eating shark". How do you discriminate between those that have killed and those that have not? Or do you care? Selective culling of land based predators that have killed typically targets those specific animals. Seems you would be happy to eradicate any white that comes within spitting distance of WA.

I've highlighted that with the current number of man-eating sharks being seen in our waters the chance of an attack or fatality is unacceptably high. Glad to hear from someone who agrees.

Man-eating shark - The three dangerous sharks in our waters are white pointers, tiger sharks and bull sharks. The statistics provided previously indicate the white pointer is by far the most dangerous. Any of these sharks 3m long or more could be considered a man-eater.
 
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