chrisch
Contributor
No one has done that.
The Jaw-Dropping Stats from Hurricane Irma
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No one has done that.
Bubblesong
Contributor
Bubblesong
Contributor
My point is that I don't believe a few degree on average warming of our oceans alone has suddenly caused a huge change in Hurricane stats from 2015 to 2017 because there are many other factors in generating storms. I believe It is an abuse of science to use it for fear-mongering by drawing obviously weak linear connections between a few data points.
oldschoolto
Contributor
In order for the model to work..We would need to see year after year of storms getting bigger and bigger and more and more.. We don't have that.. We have a year with big storms and They say see.. AGW.. Then 5 years of nothing...
Please just say you don't have a clue.. But, We should work to have a clean place to live.
Jim...
Please just say you don't have a clue.. But, We should work to have a clean place to live.
Jim...
chrisch
Contributor
No.
I just went back and looked.
Nowhere that I can see does it say the recent hurricane proves AGW.
So when someone posts...
oldschoolto:
this is essentially made up.
But hey, y'all know that.
Well, if you follow the OPs link there are a couple Irma stories, one of which is the following:
Hurricane Irma Made Worse by Climate Change, Scientists Say
This is a quote from that link:
“Burning coal, oil and gas warms our planet and that way supplies energy for the build-up of ever more powerful tropical storms,” said Levermann.
IMO that is a fairly direct assertion that anthropogenic forces causing climate change made Irma so severe.
Hurricane Irma Made Worse by Climate Change, Scientists Say
This is a quote from that link:
“Burning coal, oil and gas warms our planet and that way supplies energy for the build-up of ever more powerful tropical storms,” said Levermann.
IMO that is a fairly direct assertion that anthropogenic forces causing climate change made Irma so severe.
I would be very skeptical of assessing the influence of global warming on any particular storm or season. But I do have a couple of quick questions. Is heat the energy that fuels storms here on planet earth? Do warmer atmosphere's hold more moisture?
Yes, but it depends...
There is much more than simply warmer water and more atmospheric moisture that goes into the frequency and severity of tropical systems. If modeling climate were so simple we wouldn't even be having the discussion.
As an example the position of the Azores High has a large influence on AEWs and therefore where atlantic tropical systems form, the potential for strengthening and what direction they will travel. The direction they travel, more west or north has a huge influence on the potential for the eventual strength of the storm.
Did you take a look at that link I posted above? It's a pretty interesting read on finding trends in tropical systems.
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chrisch
Contributor
Fossil CO2 does supply additional warmth to the planet. For sure this contributes to a slight increase in the available weather contributions to storms. But this doesn't in itself justify the "bad" season of 2017. In post #21 I have stated that no one has suggested Irma and her friends are definitive proof of AGW. They still haven't.
Nor did the quote you picked out say that the human part of the forces made the hurricane "so severe", all it says is that hurricanes are increased in intensity due to prevailing climatic conditions to which humans contribute.
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