The Games the Airlines Play..

[azscubadude]

When I'm planning a trip to Cozumel I watch the fares from time to time to see what they are doing. I was amazed at what happened between 9pm last night (2/8) and 4pm today (2/9). I always watch coach and first class at the same time so I can watch how the seats are disappearing as the date draws near(er) and to watch the difference between coach and first class prices.. which sometimes isn't that much.


So as of yesterday it is just a little bit under 2 months from the time of travel I put into Continentals search. All flights had seats left so it wasn't as if the plane (on any legs) were full. First class on every leg showed totally empty. All upgradeable seats (extra leg room, etc) were available.


I have a little program on my computer that wipes all cookies, search cookies, tracking cookies, flash cookies and flash databases from my browser so I'm almost sure it wasn't from tracking my computer.


I've attached the screen shots below to show you I tried to follow the same exact criteria. The screen shots are numbered 1 thru 4 so you can see what happened in less than a 24 hour period. The first three are for First Class and the last one is for Coach


#1 was taken last night about 9 pm - first class (links at the bottom)
#2 was taken early this morning about 8 or 9 am - first class
#3 was taken this afternoon around 4 pm - first class
#4 was taken this afternoon around 4 pm - coach


From last night to this morning the ticket price dropped $263.00
From this morning to this afternoon the ticket price jumped up $405.00
Coach this afternoon is now $1004.00

MORE amazing (at least to me) is that this morning you could have flown full fare First Class for $89.00 more than Coach cost less than 8 hours later. (look at the 2nd link (this morning 8 am First Class at $1,093.00) and 4th link (this afternoon 4 pm - Coach at $1,004.00 = $89.00 more for First Class))

I know it is Spring Break time but as mentioned, the planes have plenty of room and for them to drop overnight by $263.00 and then less than 8 hours later (the same day) jump up by $405.00 is amazing. I was really surprised that it had dropped so much overnight that I did the search several times and it came up the same each time.

Last Night - 9 pm
--
This morning - 8 am
--
This afternoon - 4 pm
--
This afternoon - 4 pm - Coach

 

[CheddarChick]

It is so irritating.....I hate the whole process....

 

[mstevens]

Those are different flights, too. The first one involves overnight travel to get to Cozumel, while the less-expensive second one does not.

The whole process is nuts.

 

[fdog]

No, no, no!!! Don't hate the process...it's an opportunity!

Take the time to learn the patterns, and you, too, can fly for way less cost.


For example:Certain airports are a location that has been traditionally served mostly by a single airline. When another airline tries to move into that airport, they do it with cheaper fares (to attract passengers). The first, entrenched, airline cuts fares, too.

This becomes what we call a battleground airport.

This fare war lasts for only a month or so.By including the battleground airport in your itinerary, the percentage of fare reduction for that single airport is applied to your entire itinerary. So, if Memphis were a battleground airport, I would expect a ticket from San Francisco-Memphis-Atlanta to be far cheaper than a ticket that went San Francisco-Detroit-Atlanta.

Cool, eh. :cool2:

As another example, each flight to captive markets (like COZ) has seats in a variety of fare classes. The seats range from cheap to expensive. Normally, there are fairly equal amounts of each fare class.

As the less expensive fare classes sell out, all that's left is the next higher class, so the price goes up. (If you're unlucky, you can hit the "change-over", this is why the first ticket you buy could be $600, and the ticket you buy 10 minutes later is $800)

Still, there's gaming to be done. If a flight is selling too slowly, the airline will release more lower fare class seats to stimulate sales. If you watch the availability numbers for fare classes, you can often predict this, and hit the jackpot, getting a seat for 2/3 the cost that they were selling for just the day before.



...So it's an opportunity! Take advantage of it.

All the best, James

 

[annlaur]

I too am amazed and baffled by airline pricing and the constant changes, but you gotta compare apples to apples.

From last night to this morning the ticket price dropped $263.00

Different departure flights (the less expensive being a red eye, as mentionned by mstevens). So not comparable.

From this morning to this afternoon the ticket price jumped up $405.00

Different return flight seating category. While both departure flights are in the first & business fare classes, the cheaper ticket offers seating in economy class for the return trip.

Coach this afternoon is now $1004.00

MORE amazing (at least to me) is that this morning you could have flown full fare First Class for $89.00 more than Coach cost less than 8 hours later. (look at the 2nd link (this morning 8 am First Class at $1,093.00) and 4th link (this afternoon 4 pm - Coach at $1,004.00 = $89.00 more for First Class))

More accurately :
Both departure and return trips in economy class : $1,004
Departure in economy, return in first / business : $1,093
Both departure and return trips in first / business : $1,400

The amazing thing is the difference betwen upgrading half of the trip and upgrading the full trip.
First upgrade costs : $89 (1,093 - 1,004)
Second upgrade costs : $307 (1,400 - 1,093)


Mabe they want to encourage people who would usually fly in coach to pay a little extra for an upgrade in order to fill the empty first class/business seats. So they offer that possibility on half of the trip for $89.
But at the same time, they know some people will only fly in first class/business. So no price break for the fully upgraded trip.

 

[SailawayKC]

For my flight next week it was only $10 to upgrade two of my four legs to first/business class. One leg was already business class since that was all that was left. This was my most expensive personal ticket I've ever purchased. It almost cost as much as hotel and diving for the week. I'm either crazy or I really want to go diving.

 

[Carlos Diver]

Why cant you be crazy and really want to go diving? :diver:

 

[BDSC]

It really is a crazy process isn't it. We live in the Raleigh/Durham area of NC. We find ourselves a lot of times using US Air to fly because of their hub in Charlotte. So we are going on the Aqua Cat the first week of July. From time to time we will drive the 2.5 hours to the Charlotte airport because it can save us as much as $200 each on a rt ticket. But when we booked for this upcoming trip, it was actually cheaper to add the extra flight from RDU to Charlotte and then to Nassau than to fly out of Charlotte. It was about a $50 saving to fly from RDU.

Here's another thing I can't figure. The prices can easily move around by $50 to $100 and more from day to day and even from morning to the evening when you check prices. So why not just add $25 in for the cost of your first piece of checked luggage instead of charging extra for it. Because of the way the prices move around, you'd never know the difference anyway. Look at how much mileage South West gets from all their commercials about free checked bags. It really makes you want to fly them when possible.

 

[love2fishfork]

For my flight next week it was only $10 to upgrade two of my four legs to first/business class. One leg was already business class since that was all that was left. This was my most expensive personal ticket I've ever purchased. It almost cost as much as hotel and diving for the week. I'm either crazy or I really want to go diving.

For our flight next week, we ended up going first class round trip for only $50 more per person. Of course the ticket was $800 which is more than I've ever had to pay, but first class will make that price a little more worthwhile.

 

[Jackie]

If you can do it, travel mid week, like Tuesday to Tuesday. And check out the Cancun prices to see what the spread is.
i used miles for first class in January.