fisheater
Contributor
That's because you are looking at the Monterey Bay forecast. DON'T. The Monterey
Bay forecast always has a big range because there's always someplace that's
sheltered. Usually it's up around Santa Cruz. Instead, look at the offshore forecast
(Pigeon Pt. to Pt. Pinos out 20 nm) to see what Neptune is throwing at you. Here's
that forecast:
SAT
W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT. NW SWELL 12 TO 15 AT 15 SECONDS...
DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 FT AT 14 SECONDS. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
SAT NIGHT
SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT.
NW SWELL 7 TO 11 FT AT 13 SECONDS. RAIN.
SUN
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 4 TO 7 FT.
NW SWELL 9 TO 13 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY.
If that holds, I'll stay home I've found (through experience) that when it's a NW swell
and it's bigger than 8 FT, it's not fun.
The forecasts aren't about getting every maybe possible dive day, but rather about
not diving any of the bad days.
Last weekend, for instance.
I did my OW checkout dives at The Breakwater. While my instructor reported that "calm" areas around Santa Cruz were experiencing heavy surf, The Breakwater was mild on Saturday and downright flat on Sunday - when the topside weather weather was rather atrocious (the Coast Guard was filling sand bags). Viz both days was outstanding (best in 4 months, per my instructor).
The lessons I learned were (a) topside weather doesn't really matter when you're already in two layers of 7 mm neoprene and (b) there's no substitute for looking at the water where you're going to dive.