A couple of clarifications first. In Sydney we have common (or weedy) sea dragons, not leafy sea dragons. A totally different species that look quite different. In Sydney they are found normally deeper than 10 or 12 metres. I do not think I have ever seen one shallower in over 2,200 dives here. When they descended towards the end of the dive the water depth was 2.5 metres (maybe 3 at the most). Therefore it is unlikely Marcia saw a sea dragon, but she could have seen a sea horse as they do live on the weed in that area.
Re lift rates for BCDs. The lift is calculated (according to Michael Hollis's evidence at the Gabe Watson murder trial which I attended), by filling the BCD (with no-one using it) till it is full and then placing weights on it till it sinks. This means the BCD is opened right out. As such, in a real life situation, it is unlikely that a BCD with 18 lbs of lift will actually lift 18 lbs when a diver is wearing it. It will be less. I expect that a normal BCD will loss a couple of pounds at least, a wing probably less.
I have access to the dive profiles from 2 of the computers used on that dive. I have tried to work out an air consumption for Marcia's dive based on the profile of one of the computers. The following is what I found, using a two minute interval for my calculations (the profile depth is relatively flat for most of the dive).
She had a 10 litre steel tank. If this was filled to 220 bar (a proper fill), then it had 2,200 litres of air. If it was filled only to 200 bar, then there was 2,000 litres of air. I do not know what it was filled to, but I will try to ascertain this.
By my calculations, if Marcia had 220 bar, she averaged about 12.8 litres RMV (SAC) on the dive. If she had 200 bar, then she averaged 11.8 bar. Both of these are very low consumption rates for a diver in Sydney, especially when using a drysuit. I have one of the lowest RMV's of the people I dive with in Sydney. Using my drysuit it is about 12 to 12.5 or so, depending on the dive. I would expect a diver, no matter how experienced, diving in Sydney for the first time and using a drysuit for only the fourth time to use at least that much. Therefore, it is easy to see that she was likely to run out of air.
Going to the time when she surfaced, I believe that she probably only had between 15 and 20 bar in her tank. However, this would have read as 15 to 30 bar considering the gauge appears to have read 10 bar when empty. Therefore, I believe that the reported figure of 50 bar that she told her buddies was probably a guess on her behalf, perhaps taken a few minutes before they ascended. I think that when she went back down she realised that she indeed had far less, perhaps the 25 to 30 bar I calculated. She then decided that she needed to swim a bit quicker to get to shore before it ran out.
Thus, she left her three buddies and swam off, thinking she was going to get to shore before it ran out (she may have even known that her gauge was not accurate). This would have used more air per minute than she had previously been using. Then she ran out and did not have enough to inflate her drysuit to achieve at least neutral buoyancy.