Roughly Quantifying The Relative Risk Of Solo Diving Possible Today?

[kr2y5]

A post in another thread has raised a question in my mind. Could we try to estimate the relative risks of solo diving, at least in certain circumstances? Given a trained diver, who took training A, has B dives, and satisfies whatever criteria C, in conditions X, Y, and Z, is the risk 100 times higher? 10 times higher? Not even higher? Lower? I know the topic of solo diving has already been beaten to death, but we have 2016, for Christs's sake. Surely, by now one could approach the topic with a data-driven mindset, and swipe all of the highly emotional and dogmatic nonsense aside for just a second. Is there enough data to come up with a rough ballpark estimate? What % of fatalities arise from problems, for which the presence or absence of a buddy could influence the outcome? And, what would be the chances of a better or worse outcome in those scenarios? I would not be surprised if some insurance folks already did the math. Thoughts? ( I'm asking in the advanced forum, as opposed to solo forum, to avoid sampling bias. )

 

[2airishuman]

There are a number of problems in trying to quantify this sort of thing.

1) Assessing the nature of and casual factors on any given dive accident is a judgement call and subject to bias. For example, an advocate of budding diving might characterize an accident as having occurred on a solo dive, while an advocate of solo diving might review the same set of facts and characterize the same accident as having occurred on a buddy dive where unintentional buddy separation took place.

2) Trying to ascribe outcomes to what-if scenarios adds another layer of judgement where bias can occur since rational minds often disagree on whether the presence of a buddy would have helped.

3) There isn't enough accident data. There aren't very many open-water accidents, involving experienced divers, where the accident mainly involved something going wrong in the execution of the dive (as opposed to, say, a medical problem or some sort of wholesale dive planning failure like deliberately diving to 300 feet on a single AL80), and where there are enough facts to draw useful conclusions.

4) There isn't enough baseline data. No one has an accurate picture of how many solo dives take place.

 

[lowviz]

...//... 4) There isn't enough baseline data. No one has an accurate picture of how many solo dives take place.

Make that #1 and quit. Thanks for a good laugh.

And it is going to stay that way forever.

 

[kelemvor]

I have to agree, everyone is secretive after an accident. If information comes out, it's usually years later. Even that information is largely subjective.

Solo diving, and various stances on it seem to surround various training agencies opinions. For example, NAUI's stance is that their open water class adequately trains a diver to dive solo or with a buddy - they've got an article published about it on their website. Some agencies have "specialty" classes to append solo curriculum onto the open water base of training.

There are definitely a number of risks directly associated with buddy diving that are mitigated by diving solo. So we have a lot of people on scubaboard who have a strong opinion that it is safer.

In the end, I think @2airishuman is right. It's just too subjective a dataset. But hey, maybe DAN or some grad student could do a study on that and improve the industry as a result.

I think the negativity surrounding solo diving is compounded by dive shops. There's a lot of sales opportunity presented by divers who need buddies to dive.

 

[kr2y5]

True, but on the other hand, similar arguments could be applied to many other situations, in which risk calculations are made; in general, ambiguity, lack or data, and complexity can often be captured as uncertainty and expressed in terms of probabilities. Just saying.

 

[kelemvor]

I'm sure some science could be applied and some conclusion drawn from that. It would take a lot of work, and the conclusion is likely to be imperfect. That's why I mentioned DAN or some school based study to do it. Certainly it's far beyond the scope of what someone could put together in a few hours and post on scubaboard.

I wonder if the US Navy has any data on this sort of thing. Certainly there must be some situations where they decide to put a single soldier in the water rather than a team? If not, I wonder if it's the result of empirical data analysis or carryover from other things they do where they may have decided two > one.

 

[lowviz]

...//... ambiguity, lack or data, and complexity can often be captured as uncertainty and expressed in terms of probabilities. Just saying.

I love the solo community, I really do. We are a tight-knit group of kindred souls held together by an intentional lack of communication and even less information. Join us, we'll never know.

Nice avatar, BTW. What are you doing, reading Eric Siegel's book?

Yes, I agree. It could be done. But you are standing on silt, not solid ground.

 

[kr2y5]

Peeling eggs and contemplating existential questions in solitude, in the suburbs of Boston in a city, the name of which I can't recall, sometime in the early 2000s. I suppose you could view that as a metaphor for solo diving, too.

 

[lowviz]

Peeling eggs and contemplating existential questions in solitude, ...//...

Thanks for the honest answer. Interesting.

So YOU invented Zen! Sweet.

Back on topic, what are you really looking for, hard cold stats or communication with the test subjects???

 

[KevinNM]

It varies. A lot. Even Jarrod Jablonski pointed out that there are some dives that were safest done as a solo diver. However those sorts of dives are very difficult and pretty much high risk and not something that the average diver would even consider.

I don't feel that I'm in any more danger practicing in a swimming pool by myself that I would be with very competent buddy. I'm probably marginally more at risk at the bottom of blue hole by myself than I would be with a very competent buddy, but it's a very safe place (outside the cave...). But as you add current, depth, distance, and overhead the relationship changes and being part of a effective team adds significantly to your safety.