Trilobite
Contributor
Of course, it is highly unlikely that it strikes randomly; so you wouldn't decide what to do based on the simple ratios you cite (assuming the figures are accurate--personally I'm skeptical half the visitors do significant snorkeling). The Hawaii study lists several risk factors:Yeah, I read this elsewhere and was curious what the actual incidence is that you'd be warning people of. Based on those lose numbers it would be around 1/200,000. People can still get this even after acclimating a fews days. If you told me about ROPE and it was 1/200,000 risk the day I arrived or 1/500,000 if I waited a few days I'd still go day 1.
RISK FACTORS
• EQUIPMENT: Snorkels with a higher degree of resistance to inhalation
increase the risk of ROPE
• HEALTH: Heart conditions are significant risk factors., in particular diastolic
dysfunction, which is an asymptomatic condition common in middle age
people. A medical history of high blood pressure may be an indication of
diastolic dysfunction.
• EXERTION: Increased exertion can precipitate or accelerate ROPE.
• RECENT EXTENDED AIR TRAVEL: It is possible that recent prolonged air
travel may be a risk factor.
• BOATS: When jumping into the water from a boat there is little time to
acclimate to the equipment, temperature, and conditions, and, once in, the
snorkeler can’t touch bottom so must exert extra effort. These are all risk
factors so extra caution is advised.
Many visiting snorkelers are likely kids who may have little risk of this condition. And many who snorkel won't be doing it shortly after air travel. So eliminating those two big chunks likely significantly increases the incidence right off the bat for those in the victim's position.