Roatan vs. Bonaire

[SIR VEYOR]

SO, I guess I'm not sure what else to add here, except happy diving everyone! I will say that I have NEVER experienced a robbery at Dutch Springs, so I'm suggesting we all meet for a dive in that beautiful quarry in the Pennsylvania countryside and forget about the whole thing...

Now you're just adding another site to rank by anecdotal evidence. I've ran into some pretty shifty Amish in Pennsylvania. Some of them are just interested in a quick smash n' grab of your car to get some spinners for their wagons.... :shocked2:

 

[doctormike]

Now you're just adding another site to rank by anecdotal evidence. I've ran into some pretty shifty Amish in Pennsylvania. Some of them are just interested in a quick smash n' grab of your car to get some spinners for their wagons.... :shocked2:

Yup..!

Fortunately, they don't bother with the SCUBA gear, since it's hard to fill an aluminum 80 to more than 142 PSI with a horse powered compressor...

 

[vladimir]

.....

 

[pilot fish]

Actually, Mike, *I* had my car/truck/room broken into is not heresay. " *Mike* told me he had his car/truck/room broken into " is heresay. If you have 1000 posters on a board that went to Bonaire and 25% of them were victims of crime, petty and not so petty, I would take notice. You, of course, may disregard that.

Actually.. that is the precise definition of anecdotal. You may be thinking of "hearsay", which is a legal term for unreliable evidence relying on second hand reporting.

In medical research, anecdotal evidence is "I gave my patient X drug, and it cured Y disease", or "I gave these three patients X drug, and it cured them". It is considered interesting, in terms of stimulating research, but totally invalid in terms of demonstrating or refuting benefit.

In order to actually demonstrate the benefit of a particular intervention, one would need to say something like: "We gave 10 patients with this disease drug X, and another 10 patients with the same disease drug Y, and a third group of 10 patients a sugar pill. 9 out of ten patients in the first group were cured, but only 2 of ten in the second two groups were better". (I won't go into the details of double blinding, etc..).

SO, what we really need is some sort of study that says "We looked at 5 Caribbean islands frequented by divers with similar populations of visitors and locals, and found out that on Bonaire there were 51.8 thefts per 1000 person-weeks, while on Roatan the number was 9.5. However, there were 1.2 cases of armed robbery per 1000 person-weeks on Bonaire, as compared to 3.1 on Roatan".

THEN you could make an intelligent decision on where you want to dive, depending on (a) how much gold bullion you routinely leave in your dive bag, and (b) whether or not you hold advanced martial arts training and have a kevlar wet suit...

 

[pilot fish]

Bob, that has all the impact, and accuracy, of a Bonaire travel brochure. For that article to not even mention ANY history of crime on that island is not totally honest. But, as I've said to Mike, if you like the place, and can accept/ignore the hundreds of people that have repoted having thier gear stolen, rooms and rental vehicles broken into, then go for it. Be safe.


Caribbean nations, like Bonaire, do not publish statistics on crimes against tourists, for obvious reasons.

According to this article Bonaire is one of the safest islands in the Caribbean to visit ...



... Bob (Grateful Diver)

 

[doctormike]

Actually, Mike, *I* had my car/truck/room broken into is not heresay. " *Mike* told me he had his car/truck/room broken into " is heresay. If you have 1000 posters on a board that went to Bonaire and 25% of them were victims of crime, petty and not so petty, I would take notice. You, of course, may disregard that.

Yes, exactly.

If you personally are reporting a break-in, then your post is an anecdotal data point.

If your post is a statement that other people have experienced break-ins, that would be hearsay. So if you look at my post about hearsay, it was in response to this statement:

that does not sound too anecdotal.

The posts of these people would be anecdotal. Your reporting of their posts would be hearsay. But I do understand your point - it is anecdotal, and not hearsay, when you first read it from the primary source.

Look, I certainly don't see any reason why this should devolve into a flame war. I know that you are trying to help others here, and I hope that you understand that I am not trying to be difficult or dismissive. I appreciate your willingness to share your concern, and I'm sure that other people here do as well...

However, no matter how many times you post that people have been the victims of crime in Bonaire, I don't see how you have any actual data to back up the claim that Bonaire is disproportionally plagued with crime as compared to other Caribbean dive sites. Do you have any thread or study that shows that 25% of 1000 random posts on Bonaire involve first person claims of crime? And if so, do you have a cohort of 1000 posts on Roatan, Belize, Grand Cayman, etc.. to compare that to?

It is clear that you feel, like many people, that Bonaire is dangerous. And you may be right. I have no data to prove otherwise, so I have no way of countering that statement. So I guess there isn't much point in this line of debate...

Safe diving, everyone...!

 

[DiveMaven]

We can argue anecdotes for days and days and it proves nothing. Vote with your wallet. Those of us who feel safe on Bonaire can choose to continue enjoying the good diving and freedom the island offers. Those of us who do NOT feel safe can continue to choose other destinations to enjoy.

I know what I'm going to do....

 

[fairybasslet]

John, I told you this would happen.

 

[pilot fish]

Anecdotal is based on personal observation and, as such, is very relevant. I said statements that begin with*I*, as in, I saw, I did, is not heresay. The declarant is making a statement of what he saw, experienced, not what he was told by another, or just heard. Hope that makes it a bit clearer? I think we agree on that point. Also, no scientific study can be done on crime on Bonaire, as you must realize, because Bonaire does not make public, or show a list of any kind, that involves crimes against tourist, i. e., divers.

I did not get the sense that you were being obstinate, or flaming at all. I think you and I agree on the essentials but have a slightly different opinion.

Safe and happy diving, Mike.

Yes, exactly.

If you personally are reporting a break-in, then your post is an anecdotal data point.

If your post is a statement that other people have experienced break-ins, that would be hearsay. So if you look at my post about hearsay, it was in response to this statement:



The posts of these people would be anecdotal. Your reporting of their posts would be hearsay. But I do understand your point - it is anecdotal, and not hearsay, when you first read it from the primary source.

Look, I certainly don't see any reason why this should devolve into a flame war. I know that you are trying to help others here, and I hope that you understand that I am not trying to be difficult or dismissive. I appreciate your willingness to share your concern, and I'm sure that other people here do as well...

However, no matter how many times you post that people have been the victims of crime in Bonaire, I don't see how you have any actual data to back up the claim that Bonaire is disproportionally plagued with crime as compared to other Caribbean dive sites. Do you have any thread or study that shows that 25% of 1000 random posts on Bonaire involve first person claims of crime? And if so, do you have a cohort of 1000 posts on Roatan, Belize, Grand Cayman, etc.. to compare that to?

It is clear that you feel, like many people, that Bonaire is dangerous. And you may be right. I have no data to prove otherwise, so I have no way of countering that statement. So I guess there isn't much point in this line of debate...

Safe diving, everyone...!

 

[pilot fish]

Precisely. Who could argue with that? The only thing is that divers must have all the facts, since Bonaire does not make public any record of the many crimes against tourists.

We can argue anecdotes for days and days and it proves nothing. Vote with your wallet. Those of us who feel safe on Bonaire can choose to continue enjoying the good diving and freedom the island offers. Those of us who do NOT feel safe can continue to choose other destinations to enjoy. I know what I'm going to do....