I think we have been fortunate. This is (I believe) supposed to be the coolest and for sure it is the rainiest month. Last week had similar great weather, contrary to the predictions.
Water temps have been that same old consistent number as always on the South shore: 82 degrees. Yes it varies a 1/2 degree or maybe 1 at depth, but it's really a non-issue. Since there is considerable fresh rain water atop the Sea occasionally, that can be as much as a two degree variant, 80 degrees, but it's not like you're hitting a wall.
Your question about surface interval (si) being a big part of the body's core temperature recovery is often overlooked and certain factors are universally unrecognized. It's always a good idea to bring a Goretx like shell for si on a boat.
I believe that you are also coming to CCV, and this is where that other factor comes in.... How steady do the boats ride? If you are on a boat that wasn't designed for ese conditions, the jostling of your equilibrium can really hamper core temp recovery. The CCV boats ride well and they are well designed to minimize wind currents on the deck while underway.
It goes back to the oft posed question, "What mil wetsuit will I need?" Your question shows a much less reliance on personal needs, anecdotal statements and general hooey. Knowing what the water temp is, understanding the intended repetitive dive schedule (5 a day here), and hoping for accurate air temp and wind predictions.... Well, that last part is the big unknown, as the theme of this thread has begun to play out.
We just did Calvin's Crack which is 30 minutes East and then back. It was, as always, very worthwhile, we finally found the big old Toadfish. Did the drop off dive, the usual aquarium back to the shore exit. Here I sit out front if the bar under the roof and the cool light breeze.... Otherwise I would be perspiring. It's warm, maybe 90 degrees.
I hear it snowed in Chicago, but they predicted that correctly 10 days prior. Down here, the weather prediction accuracy? Not so much.
2:00 pm two tank boat dive and a night dive.
The local prediction is that we'll have the winds shift from the North and this will cause a noticeable change in weather by Wed evening. Anthony Key and other capable West/North dive oops will move to the South side to continue diving.
Fantasy Island (FIBR) is 400 feet to my SW and has 145 guests from the Natl Assoc of Black Divers. Not a whole lot of them are diving, but aside from the rocking good music at night, there's a lot of snorkeling, plus the FIBR influx of cruise ship day snorkelers. Perfect conditions.
i do the second of three lectures tonight for the Seahorse Festival. I think I'll offer some ideas on how to use them as garnish in salads... Excellent with butter and garlic.... Or just deep fry and serve with ketchup.