Dear y'all,
I suppose many know that Christi and I sometimes post weather reports or predictions, especially in regards to Nortes, or impending tropical weather. Just so you can get the same info we get, I'll post my main sources:
Nortes: Windguru.com
This site is very reliable. For a look several days ahead try the wind speed and direction in Galveston Texas. A strong northern wind will usually be followed by the same in Cozumel several days later. Check to see if that corresponds to a similar prediction for Cozumel and you can be pretty sure that it is going to happen in Cozumel. Last Friday night it came through Galveston.
Right now, wind guru.com predicts a northern wind tonight in Cozumel. They display two models which normally agree in some way. For tonight, both of the Windguru models predict a northwest wind. One says at 6 PM, the other at 9 PM. Both differ in windspeed but wind direction is consistent for tonight and tomorrow which is a moderate to strong wind from the Northwest and continuing through Monday, switching a little to the east on Tuesday.
For our purposes that means the Northern part of Cozumel's East side should be great tomorrow for the best diving (my opinion) you will ever see in Cozumel with absolutely uniques and pristine locations (try micro atolls and Spanish Galleons). Shifting to the east a little on Tuesday means we may have to focus on the South east side, El Islote or perhaps around to Maricaibo or Punta Sur Sur, or maybe not at all.
If the wind is dead on Northeast, both sides of the island will be too rough. Further to the east and the Westside will be open as it will be in the lee of the wind.
Tropical Storms/Hurricanes
For that I depend on the common Weather.com/tropical forecast which is available June to November. If you look at that, keep in mind that the further out, and the larger the cone of uncertainty is, the less reliable it will be. In the last 10 years I do not know of any occasion that the eye ever actually hit outside of the projected cone of uncertainty—even when the storm was in the Atlantic. (Mitch in 1998 was the only outlier that I recall as it bounced around Honduras and Belize, crossed into the Pacific, then came back through the the Yucatan and up the channel between Cancun and Cuba).
You also need to understand that it is a BIG ocean and Cozumel is a very small island—and more importantly that Hurricanes are much like very large tornados, just less wind speed which is only at the eye wall. Indeed, the same year that Wilma really hurt Cozumel (2005) Hurricanes Emily in July was a cat 4 hurricane whose eye actually touched the south end of Cozumel. The trees there looked like Chicago in the wintertime—but there was no damage at all here in town and I don't believe that the southern resorts had much damage either.
Summary
For those that don't want to spend time being weather-persons, my suggestion is to come in May-June, or September-October. Those who choose January -- I offer this: In about 2001 or 2002 the port was closed to some level of diving (some days restricted to 40 ft boats) for 21 out of 31 days. Many people had they're once a year dive vacation ruined with absolutely no diving other than the mainland. That was the inspiration for us to work VERY HARD to open alternatives on the East Side (which can be like a lake during Nortes).
Sincerely
Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers
I suppose many know that Christi and I sometimes post weather reports or predictions, especially in regards to Nortes, or impending tropical weather. Just so you can get the same info we get, I'll post my main sources:
Nortes: Windguru.com
This site is very reliable. For a look several days ahead try the wind speed and direction in Galveston Texas. A strong northern wind will usually be followed by the same in Cozumel several days later. Check to see if that corresponds to a similar prediction for Cozumel and you can be pretty sure that it is going to happen in Cozumel. Last Friday night it came through Galveston.
Right now, wind guru.com predicts a northern wind tonight in Cozumel. They display two models which normally agree in some way. For tonight, both of the Windguru models predict a northwest wind. One says at 6 PM, the other at 9 PM. Both differ in windspeed but wind direction is consistent for tonight and tomorrow which is a moderate to strong wind from the Northwest and continuing through Monday, switching a little to the east on Tuesday.
For our purposes that means the Northern part of Cozumel's East side should be great tomorrow for the best diving (my opinion) you will ever see in Cozumel with absolutely uniques and pristine locations (try micro atolls and Spanish Galleons). Shifting to the east a little on Tuesday means we may have to focus on the South east side, El Islote or perhaps around to Maricaibo or Punta Sur Sur, or maybe not at all.
If the wind is dead on Northeast, both sides of the island will be too rough. Further to the east and the Westside will be open as it will be in the lee of the wind.
Tropical Storms/Hurricanes
For that I depend on the common Weather.com/tropical forecast which is available June to November. If you look at that, keep in mind that the further out, and the larger the cone of uncertainty is, the less reliable it will be. In the last 10 years I do not know of any occasion that the eye ever actually hit outside of the projected cone of uncertainty—even when the storm was in the Atlantic. (Mitch in 1998 was the only outlier that I recall as it bounced around Honduras and Belize, crossed into the Pacific, then came back through the the Yucatan and up the channel between Cancun and Cuba).
You also need to understand that it is a BIG ocean and Cozumel is a very small island—and more importantly that Hurricanes are much like very large tornados, just less wind speed which is only at the eye wall. Indeed, the same year that Wilma really hurt Cozumel (2005) Hurricanes Emily in July was a cat 4 hurricane whose eye actually touched the south end of Cozumel. The trees there looked like Chicago in the wintertime—but there was no damage at all here in town and I don't believe that the southern resorts had much damage either.
Summary
For those that don't want to spend time being weather-persons, my suggestion is to come in May-June, or September-October. Those who choose January -- I offer this: In about 2001 or 2002 the port was closed to some level of diving (some days restricted to 40 ft boats) for 21 out of 31 days. Many people had they're once a year dive vacation ruined with absolutely no diving other than the mainland. That was the inspiration for us to work VERY HARD to open alternatives on the East Side (which can be like a lake during Nortes).
Sincerely
Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers
