Post-pandemic comeback? Not yet! The dive industry is still crashing.

[Marie13]

I did a thread here in 2020. There were some people who would absolutely refuse to dive locally if they couldn’t get overseas.

 

[VikingDives]

I suspect that the "decline" is more a representation of our changing population. The baby boomers are getting on in age (moving into social security). Most of them are done with dive training, and there aren't as many younger people in the population to replace them.

Meanwhile, back at DEMA, a bunch of old men are throwing rocks at the internet and asking for dive shops to print and fax dealership applications to them.

The other question you might want to ask is, "What is the scuba industry going to look like if China attacks Taiwan?" There won't be an industry for long if there aren't any scuba manufacturers (or if we can't trade with them, because of a war).

 

[Searcaigh]

You also have to take into account the internet and people who now live there instead of the "real" world!

Walk around any mall in my locale and half the people are looking at cell phones most of the time with no clue as to their surroundings. e.g. stopping at the top of escalators to respond to a message on their phone and a stack of people coming up behind them.

Anyway I digress, but my point is I think less people want to do physical things these days.

 

[Beau Holden]

"What is the scuba industry going to look like if China attacks Taiwan?" There won't be an industry for long if there aren't any scuba manufacturers (or if we can't trade with them, because of a war).

You just had to bring that up. Now my needs for spares, service kits, extras and would just like to haves just accelerated.

 

[Darcy Kieran]

10% is a fairly notable drop, but it's not necessarily surprising or industry-ending.

Right. However, there's a bigger story than the pandemic, here.

In 2019, before we even heard of COVID-19, participation in scuba diving by Americans was already down with a 5-year average annual growth of -2.8% (a decline of 2.8% annually on average). Source: SFIA (and I wrote about it somewhere on scubanomics.com).

Therefore, a 9.8% drop from 2019 to 2022 is just "business as usual" really. And being on the decline forever and ever can be industry-ending (or an opportunity for somebody who wants to redefine the industry).

(To be clear: the -2.8% AAG is on the participation rate while the -9.8% is on the number of new entry-level scuba certifications, but still.]

 

[Darcy Kieran]

@Darcy Kieran -

I greatly appreciate the hard work you're doing to capture the state of the industry and provide guiding proposals to stimulate improvement. You seem to be stepping in (as a one-man show) where the RSTC chooses not to. That is noble work.

If I were to join the industry in some capacity, your reports would figure significantly in my business planning, forecasting and assessments.

Thanks so much @NothingClever !

I do it as a sideline because when I was managing dive businesses on a full-time basis, I couldn't understand why this so-called "industry" had no data. In every other industry in which I've worked, we had more data than we could process.

Normally, market data is like the weather & wind forecast in a yacht race. Although there is intense competition, everybody has the weather & wind forecast. But in the diving industry, we expect dive center owners and managers to keep racing with their eyes closed. Dive training agencies, for instance, are famous for delivering pep talks with little to no market information that could help their affiliates manage & grow their business. Go figure!

Isn't it strange that we get more valuable scuba diving data from the fitness industry association (SFIA) than our own dive industry association (DEMA)?

On that note, if you are so inclined... I currently have 3 open surveys. Please take part if you can spare a few minutes:

Scuba Diving Industry Market Research, Reports & Surveys - Business of Diving Institute

The Dive Industry Compass. Dive Industry Surveys, Scuba Diving Market Research, Reports & Statistics. A better understanding of the dive industry.

www.businessofdiving.com

 

[Darcy Kieran]

Scuba isn’t a cheap hobby.

True. And every time we discuss how scuba diving is declining, we hear the argument of cost.

Yet, many other expensive outdoor activities are growing.

Boating, for instance, is more expensive than scuba, and yet, it was booming during the pandemic.

"2020 has been an unprecedented year with the Covid-19 outbreak, which has continued in 2021, creating a new norm. This has affected the boating sector, providing a demand spurt for leisure boats, resulting in significant increase in sales across the globe." (Source: ICOMIA, International Council of Marine Industry Associations).

And with boating surging, why didn't the dive industry find a way to tag along? These are people with money and they are sitting on top of the water...

It's too easy to blame the cost of scuba diving when we are actually lacking vision and leadership.

 

[lexvil]

True. And every time we discuss how scuba diving is declining, we hear the argument of cost.

Yet, many other expensive outdoor activities are growing.

Boating, for instance, is more expensive than scuba, and yet, it was booming during the pandemic.

"2020 has been an unprecedented year with the Covid-19 outbreak, which has continued in 2021, creating a new norm. This has affected the boating sector, providing a demand spurt for leisure boats, resulting in significant increase in sales across the globe." (Source: ICOMIA, International Council of Marine Industry Associations).

And with boating surging, why didn't the dive industry find a way to tag along? These are people with money and they are sitting on top of the water...

It's too easy to blame the cost of scuba diving when we are actually lacking vision and leadership.

You can load the family into a boat, diving not so much.

 

[FishCity]

Age is a factor. So is chaos in airline industry, flight cancellations. Larger issue is covid lob cancellation fears or getting positive covid test and stuck in cabin or denied boarding. Watching everyone else have fun not my idea of fun.

 

[broncobowsher]

Doesn't take much (any?) training or skill to be a boat owner. All you have to do is keep up the boat payments.

I've owned the same boat for over 25 years, my parents have owned the same boat for over 35 years. The skill level of the average boat owner over those years has clearly dropped.