Permit me to hijack for a moment with a vision of a very different future for diving that would solve the progression issue.
I suspect that Local Dive Shops are zombies, they're still up and walking, but they are dead and just don't know it yet. The internet, FedX, UPS, Amazon, and just-in-time inventories have each put a bullet in the heart and the head of the Local Dive Shop. But there is hope ... at least for the forward thinking and adaptable. I expect that, over time, the Local Dive Shop will be replaced by a for-profit dive club, multi-sports club (who knows, diving, flying and mountain biking?), adventure sports club, any of a bunch of possibilities, each of which looks more like today's health club but that, (with respect to diving) like the old BSAC not-for-profit system, provides instruction, owns and makes available things like pools, rebreathers and even live-aboard boats but that (beyond bulk purchases for members) leaves gear sales to the internet. The actual products that are sold will be membership and facilities access, training and services, but not retail goods.
What I see is a business that is not based on the profit made from the markup on retail goods. Gear sales and training will be decoupled. Clubs will have classroom space, a lounge, pool, maybe all that is found in a health club today, there will be one or more individuals providing instruction, air, gas, equipment rental (and facilitation of big ticket items like rebreathers), equipment repairs, travel services, essentially everything that good shops try to do today less the retail dive gear component, which will be on the internet. I expect that this will raise the cost of training and the other services of the "club" but that that will be offset by the reduction through the internet of the cost of equipment.
Undoubtedly, if this concept catches on, we will see small (and maybe larger) chains of such facilities and independent clubs will group themselves into national and even international organizations to better avail themselves of things such as insurance and training materials as well as joint use facilitates such as resorts and liveaboards.
As far as instruction is concerned, it will be quite different. Think about skiing for a moment, there are professional ski instructors that make a decent living (at least during the season), they usually teach through a school that is part of the ski area. They do not sell gear, they will discuss it but they don't bring you into the overpriced shop at the base of the lift or have their feelings hurt if you go to your ski shop at home (or on the internet). Most other sports are similar, tennis, squash, golf. Sure they all have the Pro shop, but nobody seems to be bent out of shape if you choose to shop elsewhere, those shops are more for convenience and specialty items than for major purchases. The "Pros" themselves make their money by charging you based on their time and level of expertise, not by getting a payment from the facility as a "loss leader" in the hopes that you'll buy your stuff there. Different instructors get different hourly rates, based on how good they are at the game and at teaching the game. Today, dive instructors get what the shop owner is willing to pay, there's no product differentiation, in fact many of the agencies try to discourage such distinctions. You'll be able to choose between the brand new hot shot kid for less per hour than the thirty year veteran, Courses will be less the current ritual of mind numbing modules and more a matter of diving, in-club mentoring and hiring an instructor by the hour to work with you until you are ready to pass the next exam or check-dive.
end hijack
