Anecdotally, the Jardines de la Reina off of Cuba beached terribly between when we booked a trip in May 2023 until we dove in January 2024. We dove Cape Kri in October 2024, and it was fabulous; by January 2025, it was stark white. Bonaire, well . . . tragic. So, optimism is challenging.
A new
International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) report, published this past Wednesday, reports:
From 1 January 2023 to 30 March 2025, bleaching-level heat stress impacted 84% of the world’s reefs, with 82 countries, territories and economies suffering damage. During the first global coral bleaching event in 1998, 21% of reefs experienced bleaching-level heat stress, rising to 37% in the second event in 2010 and 68% during the third event (2014-2017)1. Scientists called the fourth global coral bleaching event “unprecedented” as early as May 2024, and a widely-used bleaching prediction platform had to add three new levels (Levels 3-5) to their Bleaching Alert Scale to indicate the heightened risk of mass coral mortality. The previous highest level, Level 2, indicates risk of mortality to heat sensitive corals; Level 5 indicates the risk of over 80% of all corals on a reef dying due to prolonged bleaching.
A
West Papua thermal stress map from 2024, linked, is bleak. Global temperatures will almost certainly continue to rise, and the straight-line connection to bleaching cannot be gainsaid. What percentage, where, and in what year, nobody knows, of course--but it seems clearthat the reefs of a few decades--and often, a few months--past, are in desperate shape.