Kammuri / Tisoy Info Thread

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Johncn

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Hello,

For those of us in the Philippines right now, the projected track and intensity of a new low pressure system is something keep an eye on. Current projections (which are not at a high confidence level beyond 72 hours or so) show Kammuri (PAGASA name = Tisoy) as a very strong typhoon / super typhoon impacting the Philippines next week. It has not entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) yet, so has not made major headlines locally as yet.

Good tracking links here:

:: Typhoon2000.com® :: The Philippines' First Website on Tropical Cyclones (Since 1997)

Tisoy19-StormWatch-02.png


Tropical Cyclones Worldwide

"This system has the potential, currently, to have “no limitations” on intensification, it possibly will have much slower movement on approach to the Philippines..."

I would recommend that anyone in the Philippines keep a close eye as better track and intensity information for Kammuri / Tisoy becomes available.

Here's hoping for a poleward re-curve.

Johncn
 

bill22

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It's near to it's point of closest approach to us right now as I'm writing this. We're getting a lot of wind and rain. There will be some damage but just minor. It's expected to intensify into a typhoon by tomorrow. Yes it's worth keeping an eye on. Let's hope it turns.
 
OP
Johncn

Johncn

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Cape Canaveral, FL - USA
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Latest JTWC analysis says slight shift west and south from last forecast track, so aiming more for middle of the Philippines. Still forecast to be a 200-240 kph storm on Sunday and Monday, with chance for more intensification over 30 C SSTs. Can't know for sure where it is headed, as low confidence track models at this many hours out, with some critical turns forecast, but the cone (brown area below) is CURRENTLY putting much of the PI in the potential landfall area with a Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday time frame of next week.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2919prog.txt

Graphic Source: Tropical Cyclone Update Archives - WeatherPhilippines Foundation

Johncn

Tisoy19-StormWatch-03.png
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/swift/

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