Is there an instructor crisis?

[runsongas]

scuba needs something like the ikon/epic pass if they want to get the numbers up. unfortunately, that means the industry will consolidate greatly and squeeze out the independents.

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

scuba needs something like the ikon/epic pass if they want to get the numbers up. unfortunately, that means the industry will consolidate greatly and squeeze out the independents.

For training? Most people don't go much beyond OW. Maybe AOW/Adventure diver/<insert agency name for 5 dives> and nitrox. How would that even work worldwide for revenues? It sounds like a lot of overhead to manage, which would simply inflate costs.

 

[runsongas]

for everything, because the model relies on economies of scale and vertical integration for revenue capture.

like if you were padi or ssi, you buy up some dive resorts in florida/hawaii/caribbean. sell memberships to your dive resorts for free diving and discounted training for your PADI/SSI divers if they stay there while on vacation. leverage the revenue stream from the subscription memberships to acquire more resorts or even liveaboards to continue adding to the value of the membership. open retail locations in convenient locations to offer discounted basic rental gear as a membership perk (for those that may want to still do some local diving) and profitable gear sales on nicer gear to your members. run a dive club at your retail location that functions more like a social group to promote booking a vacation to your resorts. it becomes a self reinforcing cycle at that point once you get to a critical mass of resort options that any new diver you certify is going to want to sign up for a membership to take advantage of access to your dive resorts for vacations. then discounts start driving your divers to solely use your company owned outlets through loyalty discounts for repeat guests, buying gear from your retail outlet, training at your dive resorts, etc.

it is a model that has worked like gangbusters for vail resorts with skiing.

 

[Wookie]

it is a model that has worked like gangbusters for vail resorts with skiing.

The difference being that the training agencies invented certification, membership, and insurance, then convinced dive operators that you had to be certified to go diving.

I can buy a lift ticket at a Vail Resort, rent skis, and ride the lift to the top without having a clue what I’m doing.

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

for everything, because the model relies on economies of scale and vertical integration for revenue capture.

like if you were padi or ssi, you buy up some dive resorts in florida/hawaii/caribbean. sell memberships to your dive resorts for free diving and discounted training for your PADI/SSI divers if they stay there while on vacation. leverage the revenue stream from the subscription memberships to acquire more resorts or even liveaboards to continue adding to the value of the membership. open retail locations in convenient locations to offer discounted basic rental gear as a membership perk (for those that may want to still do some local diving) and profitable gear sales on nicer gear to your members. run a dive club at your retail location that functions more like a social group to promote booking a vacation to your resorts. it becomes a self reinforcing cycle at that point once you get to a critical mass of resort options that any new diver you certify is going to want to sign up for a membership to take advantage of access to your dive resorts for vacations. then discounts start driving your divers to solely use your company owned outlets through loyalty discounts for repeat guests, buying gear from your retail outlet, training at your dive resorts, etc.

it is a model that has worked like gangbusters for vail resorts with skiing.

But the number of ski resorts is << number of dive centers/dive destinations.

I get your point and I will think about it, but I think this would be a hard sell for a corporation with sufficient funds willing to invest in this struggling industry. I've seen the changes in ownership from the early 80s when I started to ski. I'm not saying this couldn't happen/work with the scuba industry, but I am skeptical. Only time will tell. I don't think such a program really solves the problems I see.

 

[runsongas]

from a conceptual standpoint though, i fail to see the difference between OW and a quickie group lesson on the bunny slopes

 

[runsongas]

@wetb4igetinthewater you could say the same thing with skiing before vail resorts started their pass program. declining numbers, aging skiers, rising costs leading to low adoption rates by new skiers, etc. since then, skiing has seen nearly a 50% increase in unique skiers visiting US ski resorts with many being driven by access to the two pass programs.

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

from a conceptual standpoint though, i fail to see the difference between OW and a quickie group lesson on the bunny slopes

I do. Let's assume we are going with the 3-day resort style (or worse, the 2-day resort style CW + OW1 one day, OW2 & 3 the next). That's still a lot more to invest time wise than a quick lesson.

I'm going to learn more about the ski school format when I start my daughter skiing next winter. I used to take hour long courses for 6 to 8 weeks growing up and then one during adulthood for an extreme skiing course. I can see the benefit of more personalized training that is on demand, but there are utilization issues then.

@wetb4igetinthewater you could say the same thing with skiing before vail resorts started their pass program. declining numbers, aging skiers, rising costs leading to low adoption rates by new skiers, etc. since then, skiing has seen nearly a 50% increase in unique skiers visiting US ski resorts with many being driven by access to the two pass programs.

I've never observed this. With growing populations without significant expansion of ski resorts (number and acreage), the demand has been fairly constant. https://nsaa.org/webdocs/Media_Public/IndustryStats/Historical_Skier_Days_1979_2022.pdf matches my statistically insignificant impression.

More historical data: https://nsaa.org/webdocs/Media_Public/IndustryStats/active_US_participants_1996-97_2021-22.pdf

When you say a 50% increase in unique skiers, what is your source? As if that is true, then people are skiing less often on average.

 

[NW Dive Dawg]

After reading all of this I think PADI or any other agencies that use the term need to get rid of the term "Mastery" since it's misleading. They should just be honest and use a term that more accurately describes their actual program requirement.... like...."good enough" or "acceptable"..

But then those terms don't sound nearly as impressive as "Mastery"... And the more that I really think about it....my take is that 99% of divers fresh out of OW with 4-5 dives under their belt haven't "Mastered" a damn thing.

 

[boulderjohn]

After reading all of this I think PADI or any other agencies that use the term need to get rid of the term "Mastery" since it's misleading. They should just be honest and use a term that more accurately describes their actual program requirement.... like...."good enough" or "acceptable"..

But then those terms don't sound nearly as impressive as "Mastery"... And the more that I really think about it....my take is that 99% of divers fresh out of OW with 4-5 dives under their belt haven't "Mastered" a damn thing.

The term has been an accepted and well understood part of instructional theory for 55 years now. It is well understood by professional educators, and it is defined in the agency standards.

Why should they create a new term when there is a well understood one already in existence? The fact that you do not understand it does not mean that no one understands it.