Incompetent And Unaware: We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

[Kharon]

I wonder - what are you unaware of? In other words, why should I think that you have ALL the answers/knowledge? The title is obnoxious - Having not thought of absolutely every eventuality does NOT equate to incompetance. I prefer a competance that allows me to evaluate an unexpected situation in a calm state of mind and solve the problem.

 

[GLOC]

Kharon, apologies if the title appears obnoxious. The title comes from a phrase within a research paper looking at this specific issue. Incompetent is taken in the technical sense, not the emotional sense.

Competent - able to do something well. Incompetent - the opposite.

I do not propose that I have ALL the knowledge - the point I was making was that in many cases there is a big difference between what is known and what is thought to be known. I am not sure if you read the article but if you look at the research paper I cited, the majority of people thought their level of competency across a number of different tasks was around the 65% make, but those who were incompetent (could not do the task) had much lower scores. This is no different in diving, there are a significant number of inexperience and 'incompetent' divers out there who think they are above average...it is this mismatch that causes the problems.

Your competence is a valid expectation, but if you look at Endsley's model of situational awareness and decision making, it does not work like that in the real world. Furthermore, if we have plenty of time to diagnose, create options, decide on a course of action, then it is unlikely to be a stressful situation. However, that decision making is still informed by previous experiences. See the bottom of Endsley's model.

We can never learn everything that might go wrong, but if we understand our own limitations and learn from others, we are less likely to put ourselves into situations where we are unable to problem solve effectively in the time available to execute the mitigation.

If you have more questions, please ask...

 

[Kharon]

... there are a significant number of inexperience and 'incompetent' divers out there who think they are above average...it is this mismatch that causes the problems.

+++1 on this - it's this type of diver that is a danger to everyone in the water with them and one of the reasons I feel far safer diving solo.

And thanks for the clarification. I was put off by the title. Guess I'll go back and read the whole article. I only scanned the first few sentences - my bad.

A few minutes later:

OK - read the whole article. Good stuff and it gave me insight into why I do things the way I do. Some examples (but not exhaustive): no one but me touches my equipment, if someone "helps" me gearing up I break everything down and start over, my log sheet has a place for any errors and for gear needing attention, I dive very conservatively, and I rigidly follow my "rules":

1. You are always diving solo no matter how many divers are in the water, or how many buddies you have, or how much experience they have or what you discussed during the dive plan.
   
   
2. It is always absolutely necessary to take at least one bearing before every dive.
   
   
3. If you forget something non-trivial during gear up that dive is aborted. If you aren’t focused enough to gear up perfectly you aren’t focused enough to dive solo or otherwise.
   
   
4. If you forget something non-trivial during gear up on two dives the diving day is over. Two mistakes in one day means you are way off and need a time out.
   
   
5. If you make a non-trivial judgment error on a dive at least the next dive is skipped. You need to think about it.
   
   
6. If you make two non-trivial judgment errors in a days diving the next days dives are skipped. You really need to think about it. Note: non-trivial includes pretty much everything more serious than mistaking a coronet fish for a trumpet fish.

 

[GLOC]

Kharon, that is indeed a very conservative attitude but risk perception and acceptance are very much at a personal level.

Your comment about solo vs team diving is interesting because it significantly changes how you go about incident prevention and problem resolution. A team is always more effective than a solo diver, unless we are talking about sump diving or places where two people cannot see or touch each other. The problem is that we are rarely taught how to be an effective team member, or how to communicate effectively, or a number of other situations. Therefore people have a bad experience and think that solo is safer than team diving.

In terms of errors, pilots make in the order of 3-6 errors per hour! But they are trapped before they become critical. Making an error is part of human behaviour. The problem is we normally classify something as an error after the event once we know what the outcome was...

As you can tell, I am very passionate about this subject. The world is not black and white like lawyers want us to believe, and the context and environment are incredibly important when it comes to looking at decision making.

Regards

 

[Kharon]

... A team is always more effective than a solo diver, unless we are talking about sump diving or places where two people cannot see or touch each other. The problem is that we are rarely taught how to be an effective team member, or how to communicate effectively, or a number of other situations. Therefore people have a bad experience and think that solo is safer than team diving. ...

You make my case for me: " The problem is that we are rarely taught how to be an effective team member, or how to communicate effectively, or a number of other situations." Putting my faith in an ineffective team is far more dangerous (for me) than diving solo - with way, way more than 100 solo dives under all kinds of conditions, fully equipped to be completely self-sufficient, with the skill to use that equipment, and the cold knowledge that in my entire life I have never experienced panic - even in seriously life threatening situations. I'll take solo over diving with muppets every time. It's safer for me. I enjoy the hell out of the freedom from babysitting, and I can focus completely on where I am and what I am doing without worring about what my "buddy" might or might not do.

 

[Matthevv]

Loved this article. I too believe that we need to talk more openly at when we screw up. You learn something, and passing on each "oops" just might help someone else avoid it!

Or you can be a scientist like me and mess it up several times just to make sure it's relevant.

 

[Grumpy Fish]

... A team is always more effective than a solo diver, unless we are talking about sump diving or places where two people cannot see or touch each other. The problem is that we are rarely taught how to be an effective team member, or how to communicate effectively, or a number of other situations. Therefore people have a bad experience and think that solo is safer than team diving. ...

You make my case for me: " The problem is that we are rarely taught how to be an effective team member, or how to communicate effectively, or a number of other situations." Putting my faith in an ineffective team is far more dangerous (for me) than diving solo - with way, way more than 100 solo dives under all kinds of conditions, fully equipped to be completely self-sufficient, with the skill to use that equipment, and the cold knowledge that in my entire life I have never experienced panic - even in seriously life threatening situations. I'll take solo over diving with muppets every time. It's safer for me. I enjoy the hell out of the freedom from babysitting, and I can focus completely on where I am and what I am doing without worring about what my "buddy" might or might not do.

Until the day you panic, alone, for an unforeseen reason and, die. If that's a risk you are comfortable with then that is your prerogative. A simpler safer solution would be to find a good buddy..... Or are you so good that no one is your equal? Safe diving

 

[Bubblesong]

Until the day you panic, alone, for an unforeseen reason and, die. If that's a risk you are comfortable with then that is your prerogative. A simpler safer solution would be to find a good buddy..... Or are you so good that no one is your equal? Safe diving

I like the "we are all solo" attitude, not because no one is my equal, but because it kicks me out of any type of complacency that "I didn't know I was being complacent about"

 

[GLOC]

I like the "we are all solo" attitude, not because no one is my equal, but because it kicks me out of any type of complacency that "I didn't know I was being complacent about"

Interesting comment. Whilst having a buddy introduces other cognitive biases such as assumptions that someone is going to doing something based on an assumed shared model (he is thinking what I am thinking, therefore I expect them to do something) it does mean that you have one brain and attention which can be succumbed rather than having two to spot the changes. As a consequence I am not sure what 'complacency' you are referring to here Francesca.

Complacency is normal. It is normally attributed to an event where something negative happened when full attention wasn't paid and the assumption that the model of the world we have constructed behaved in the manner it was supposed to, but didn't. If it all went well, nothing adverse happened, and we achieved our goals more quickly, we often call that efficiency!

Regards

 

[Bubblesong]

. As a consequence I am not sure what 'complacency' you are referring to here Francesca.
Regards

You don't, hmm? Well Neither do I, which is where the added phrase "did not know what I was being complacent about" comes in. I NEVER plan to go solo, that is not fun for me. But by looking at my dive setup as though I was solo, i realized there are some gear and habits I need to update. In addiction, next time I go diving I can rethink my approach to increase self sufficiency.
Pulease don't ask me to confess my many deficiencies, and then say I should have been better to begin with. The point is that just looking at things as though I am on my own in various potential emergencies is a helpful boost of adrenaline plus dive budget elasticity to buy safety gear.