Hurricane warning for tomorrow night!

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The line was two blocks long at Euan the lumber company at 8am - I can't even describe Chedraui, I was in line for a hour only because of some good luck, the main lines looked to be 90 minutes or greater.......
 
Cat 4, wow! One note about hurricane forecasting, the models are now roughly as accurate at 96 hours as they were at 48 20 years ago. Pretty amazing progress. The other thing is that they are much more accurate as to path and intensity than to time. That is, if the storm is predicted to hit Cozumel as a Cat 4, it's pretty likely to do so, but the date is much less certain. Could be sooner, could be later. Of course, this is just what a major resort destination that's been shut down for 6 months needs.
 
I'm so sorry to see this path Cozumel! My prayers are not being answered to spare the island that we love......
 
Was scheduled to fly in on Sat. and spend the week at Sabor with a group and dive with Dive Palancar. I just canceled and got a hold of AA to cancel flights. They are getting ready to close all flights in Coz and Cancun very shortly. Initial plan is to re-start Friday or Sat. based on airport status.

Cat 4 (130-140 MPH) with 6 mile wide eye wall passing just North of the N. tip will cause some real diving issues for a while even on the west side. If I'm spending that much money, I would prefer much better diving conditions.
 
Hopefully the storm runs N of the island.
It's a mixed bag. If the center of the storm tracks to the north of Cozumel but close to it, the majority of the wind and wave action will strike the island from the west and northwest, which is the worst for the town and resorts.
 
I'm not sure how many remember Wilma in October 2005 that tore up Coz badly with a direct hit. If I recall that was a Cat 5 hurricane that weakened to a Cat 4 with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph by the time it hit Coz. However, that storm was so slow moving as it passed over Coz that it created the same amount of damage as 4 or 5 Cat 4 storms passing over at normal speed. At least Delta is projected to keep moving and if its eye wall passes to the north up around Cancun (40 miles north) or further north Coz could theoretically experience relatively minimal damage but I can certainly understand why locals who remember Wilma are very nervous. Even if Coz did take a direct hit from Delta the damage would be no where near what Wilma caused. Coz recovered from significant damage as shown by the comparison photos of just after Wilma and 1 year later.

https://cozumelinsider.com/wilmaanniv
 
I remember it very well. We flew into Coz when the forecast was for it to be a Cat 1 crossing the tip of Cuba. About 2 hours after we landed, the NHC updated that it underwent explosive intensification overnight and was headed straight for Coz. We got to spend 48 hours under the right side eyewall in the bathroom of our room at Casa Mexicana. I still remember laying there feeling the building swaying from the wind and shuddering from the waves coming over the seawall and hitting the building. T&P for all those down there riding it out, and have a ton of patience with folks like Christi and Dave for the next few weeks and months if you have a trip coming up. If it is anything like Wilma, it took a long time for communications to be back to normal after the storm. Lots of rumors and fake news went around after the storm back then.
 
In addition to the land damage there is the reef damage. Every year I have been finding the shore dives to feature more and more coral growth and I fear it will all be scoured away as when Wilma hit.
 
Yes, Wilma was a storm for the ages. Big problem is not surge because the waters surrounding Cozumel are so deep. But when a north west wind blows down the Yucatan channel at 140 mph for long periods of time it built up 30 ft waves that crushed downtown and lots of other places. A photo at the foot of the ferry pier shows the devastation.

On the other hand only one person died (stupidly) and very few injuries. The Villa Aldora was back ready for non-existent guests in just two weeks, as were many others places and given a month the island was almost back to normal. One of the most inspiring things to me was the work ethic and effort that all the people put into restoring the island. Also attached is a sign on the side of the Coral Princess hotel that described the spirit of these great people. Wilma Melgar.jpgcoral princess sign.jpgWilma Melgar.jpgcoral princess sign.jpgWilma Melgar.jpgcoral princess sign.jpg


Interestingly, for a swim-thru nut like me the deep action of the waves opened up hundreds of new swim-thru opportunities….flushng out sand from millions of years. In addition, the underwater topography(?) changed in lots of places and the diving was in some ways better than before. For instance, starting in 1992 I never saw big Caribbean Reef Sharks. After Wilma they were always at Punta Sur.

I am hoping for the best this time…15 years later.

Dave Dillehay
 

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