daniel f aleman:
I'm sure Walter has it right. 220-300k is what most industry folks think. But, maybe, that is wrong. Whatever the number it is pretty sad.
how many people are certified?
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I'm sure Walter has it right. 220-300k is what most industry folks think. But, maybe, that is wrong. Whatever the number it is pretty sad.
Walter:
I wonder why this is the case? I know PADI has computer records of certifications...why can't we guestimate using stats from PADI, NAUI, etc?
I mean does PADI know how many certs they do a year? They must...
-J.-
Tigerman
Contributor
Im pretty sure the organizations could come up with proper figures if they wanted to or saw need to do so, given the fact that they do keep records.
However, they have to do polls to find out how many certified divers there is that quit every year as well to find the number of active ones.
As far as money goes, I think it might be rather insignificant. Countries with lower income also have lower prices. They might not go to hawaii to dive, because they cant afford it, but they can always dive locally. Location and the tradition of diving I would think has a greater impact on the number of active divers in an area.
For statistics youd juts need to know how many divers are currently certified with each organization and that should be possible and not very hard to find out, if the organizations so decided.
If you want active certified divers (guesstimate) find out how many percent quit each year, take it off the number of certified divers each year.
And then comes the part where organizations realy would shoot as blindly as anyone else.. How many UN-certified active divers are there? My guess would be "a lot"..
However, they have to do polls to find out how many certified divers there is that quit every year as well to find the number of active ones.
As far as money goes, I think it might be rather insignificant. Countries with lower income also have lower prices. They might not go to hawaii to dive, because they cant afford it, but they can always dive locally. Location and the tradition of diving I would think has a greater impact on the number of active divers in an area.
For statistics youd juts need to know how many divers are currently certified with each organization and that should be possible and not very hard to find out, if the organizations so decided.
If you want active certified divers (guesstimate) find out how many percent quit each year, take it off the number of certified divers each year.
And then comes the part where organizations realy would shoot as blindly as anyone else.. How many UN-certified active divers are there? My guess would be "a lot"..
It is unfortunate but there are a large percentage of divers who get certified through our dive shop that get the cert and never dive again. I agree with Walter and Daniel. I don't see any possible way this number can be determined.
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They say Diving is on the rise. I just came back from the Keys and started thinking you know back in the early 80's we had a lot more people getting into classes. Key Largo going south down there were dive shops like every 2 buildings for ever. Key Largo was know as the diving capitol of the world. I don't believe it.
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Have you seen it lately its like a ghost town .... of its former self.
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They better start watching our population .... there going to have to put a bag limit on us ......
johnny_bravo:
You can find out how many certifications have been isued. They are not cross referenced, so you'll have no idea how many are duplicates. I have two OW certs myself, in addition to my other certifications. Some folks get recertified instead of taking a refresher. You'll have no idea how many certified divers don't have an OW card. I know several folks whose first card was their instructor card. You'll have no idea how many of those certifications were issued to folks who are no longer alive. All such numbers are WAGs.
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There are two problems with "estimating" the number of certs each year, the first is that the agencies see that as competitive data and lie, the second is that the data is never corrected for multiple certs. From what I learned in my past work I'd suggest that we cut that 300K by a factor of about 2. The concentional wisdom is that the average LDS needs to train 300 divers per year to keep its head above water. The area I live in has 15 shops serving about a million people. That's 450 new divers a year or 135,000 new divers a year normalized to the entire U.S. When you consider redundent certifications, that likely as good an estimate of new divers as any I've seen.
How does that math hold up for your area? There's bound to be a range. Just use full service shops that depended on retail sales, shops that are primarily boat operators like in the Keys should not be counted since they rarely train 300 divers a year from scratch.
How does that math hold up for your area? There's bound to be a range. Just use full service shops that depended on retail sales, shops that are primarily boat operators like in the Keys should not be counted since they rarely train 300 divers a year from scratch.
Walter:
a little thing that goes with this, "99% of all stats are made up on the spot"
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