How important is armchair incident analysis?

[Scuba]

I would think that the most common reason for not releasing details, is that they DON'T KNOW. In most dive accidents, the victim ultimately ends up drowning. Thus, the cause of death, is downing, end of case... close the file... the police have earned a gold star for being ace investigators.

My reference was in regards to a refusal to release information that is known to others directly involved, or those who may have witnessed partial developments. We have seen many accidents discussed where the buddy either misses partial or complete developments. There is an aversion to tell what they DO KNOW under guise of privacy rights, legal considerations, or respect for the victim and others. Which I do not doubt, but I also believe there are often more reasons than those, sometimes it's quite obvious. There are numerous cases here where further info is said to be forthcoming in the future and never does. Patience has it's virtues but after a while it's time to call a spade a spade. It's anyones right to withhold information from public, just say so without pretense otherwise.

Another issue is that, whether one see's it as a positive or a negative, investigations and analysis of facts may inevitably point fingers at others. That is simply the way it is when one tries to uncover accident causes and developments. I do agree that wild speculation and accusations can cloud the true important issues and hinder accurate analysis. But as already mentioned, are we to deny everyone of such a tool because of a few bad apples? Out of line cases can be effectively handled and often are.

This is just one of those issues where there will never be complete agreement. Everyone places emphasis on certain rights over others and see's advantages to doing so, either one way or the other.

 

[Scuba]

Without saying anything about the case in particular... There have been cases of "dive related accidents" where really, there is NOTHING dive related at all. In several cases reported by DAN, the victims suffered heart attacks WHILE diving. Would an in depth accident analysis filled with speculative hypothesis help analyze this situation? I think not.

I would differ on this. A heart attack can be TOTALLY dive related. Would it have happened at the same time if the person was sitting in their couch? Was it caused by dive imposed stress? Can we really discount the possibility that breathing gases under pressure had no significant influence? How common are they? What do the first symptoms look like? I want to know. Unless we know the answer to these questions and many others, we just can't say it was not dive related, and we may not be doing the right thing to prevent and deal with them.

 

[Darnold9999]

The problem I see developing is that the board is developing two different sets of rules. One when the diver is a well known member, and another when the diver is not known on the board.

For example the diver that died in Hawaii recently. There was considerable speculation that he died as a result of heavy current/surge in an area known for such things. Caused me and others to think about how I would handle such a situation.

Was it useful, I found it so, was it entirely speculation - probably by later reports. In this case speculation was allowed - nobody on the board knew the diver involved well.

In recent cases where the diver was well known to the board, speculation is being slapped down with vigor.

This bothers me, but I am not sure that I have a solution. I do not think that the current double standard is the best solution however.

Not to criticize the mods on this one, I don't see this as intentional, just what is developing over time as people attempt to deal with very difficult situations.

 

[Walter]

There is also no expectation of privacy with regard to things that happen in a public place. If we're walking down the street and I see you grimace in pain while holding your hands in the center of your chest. I have every legal right to tell anyone I please exactly what I saw. You may have had a heart attack, you may have a bad case of gas. I don't know. If I see your medical records, I have no right to divulge that information without your permission. I think all too often we see privacy used as an excuse. Privacy cannot reasonably be expected for public events.

 

[HowardE]

But as already mentioned, are we to deny everyone of such a tool because of a few bad apples? Out of line cases can be effectively handled and often are.

This is just one of those issues where there will never be complete agreement. Everyone places emphasis on certain rights over others and see's advantages to doing so, either one way or the other.

True, and for the most part, at least here on SB, the mods have done a great job of keeping many of these discussions focused. Should we deny everyone the tool? No. Analysis of accidents can and are useful tools... It is just my feeling that there is a very fine line between hurtful accusation, and intuitive and informative speculation, and it is easily crossed.

You are absolutely right, there is no easy solution.

 

[Doc]

well, my answer was implicitly stated, but here it is:i don't trust the facts i get when i try to do accident analysis. rather, i prefer to let the pros do that, since they are much better at gathering the facts than i am.

bad facts in accident analysis are worse that useless. they can be deadly.

I read this thread only to Andy's post #9.

Nuff said.

 

[cerich]

There are a lot of people out there that seem to think there is something of urgent importance to be gleaned from each and every incident that occurs. Another thread is currently running that asks whether such analysis might lead one to give up diving. That would certainly be a solid result of incident analysis. Are there any others?

I am asking three things:

1) Can you list anything you have changed in your diving as a result of armchair incident analysis?

YES
2) Have you ever helped clarify, resolve or bring about any good by armchair analysis?

YES

3) If the answer to both 1 and 2 are no, isn't this form of armchair analysis the cyber equivalent of freeway rubbernecking?

Of course it is sometime, however if you really want to get better as a diver then you do look at others accidents and try to learn from them.

What's strange is I fly as well, in that community there is always rampant speculation followed much later by the NTSB reprt on why people bend airplanes and/or die. As pilots we KNOW that our judgement and skills are going to be discussed if something happens, yet most divers seem to feel what they may or may not do isn't up for discussion in the case of an accident. I disagree strongly.

 

[drbill]

Learning of dive-related incidents AFTER "all" the information is in can help me evaluate whether what happened to them could happen to me. I have learned the most from my own (few thankfully) incidents over 45 years rather than armchair analysis. After an incident a few years ago where I decided not to strap my pony bottle on, I now carry it on every solo dive I do (and most buddied dives since my rig is weighted for it).

However, knowing that some more experienced and highly trained divers than myself have had incidents helps me maintain a perspective and not get complacent in my own diving.

The only thing I find I can do on #2 is to offer any personal information I know to add to the mix when it is an incident I am familiar with.

 

[TSandM]

I think the most useful incident reports are the ones that are written by the person involved, who can relate what happened and often list the lessons learned. Unfortunately, in fatal accidents, that's not possible. Sometimes we hear from the buddy, or someone else on the dive. More often, only the setting and the outcome are available.

Nonetheless, the exercise of speculating what could have led from A to B is, I think, useful, because various people will bring up things which have happened to them, or about which they know, that I might not have thought of or heard about.

Regarding the original questions: Yes, I carry a spool and SMB and two cutting implements with me because of incident reports (can't remember whether it was armchair analysis or the OPs analysis that influenced me). I'm not sure I've ever written anything on an accident analysis thread, unless it was to clarify some medical statement. And no, I don't think it's rubbernecking. I think there are a lot of very well qualified people on this board who contribute thoughtful things to such threads.

 

[lamont]

On rebreatherworld there's an article and a very long thread about speculation that Penny Glover died due to oxtox descending trying to save her student who took some kind of hit at the 20 ft / 6 m stop. There's also a lot of speculation on other possible causes and loads of b.s. in the thread and the original article that kicked it off. Reading it, though, is useful since it raises issues that should be addressed -- what do you do at the 20 ft stop on O2 when your buddy loses consciousness and starts heading down? Everything in the article and the thread is speculative, nobody really knows what happened, and some of the implications in the original article cross the line into what I would consider 'blamestorming' and the kind of thing that would potentially be 'hurtful to the family' (and this is an article translated from a french publication, not random internet b.s.). IMO, its still useful to discuss it.