But you have some pretty big assumptions with words like training, proper equipment, well supported locations and supervision.
Not really.
Well supported locations: Compare risk of getting DCS in Florida (
15 minutes to nearest chamber via heli-vac) versus Ascension Island (
2500 mile flight to nearest chamber). Some locations have effective, swift emergency/medical response. Some have a better standard of medical care. Others have less. That impacts upon survivability, should an incident occur. It is a distinct risk factor.
Training: Appropriateness and diligent application of techniques and knowledge applicable for risk mitigation under given conditions/circumstances. OW qualified diver at 60' in the ocean has a safety level. Same OW diver at 60' in a cave system has a different safety level. Training dictates that - as it provides appropriate risk mitigation
for a given circumstance​.
Supervision: Chance of external input towards incident resolution. Massive factor in reducing risk, especially with novice divers.
Take an inexperienced diver who doesn't apply safe diving principles and has allowed their core emergency skills to deteriorate. Stick them in a remote location, with no access to experienced support. You don't see increased risk in that?
There are a many accidents and deaths that happen in shallow water diving,divers with brand new gear and newly minted divers (recently trained).
Wouldn't that support the "pretty big assumptions" I made?
Brand new gear = advice given to divers to practice and familiarize with new gear, to seek training if necessary. Training and experience dictating risk factor.
Newly minted divers = task-loading plus skills not yet ingrained, plus no benefit of experience. Less likelihood of proper application of skills, as trained. Risk offset by conservative diving and support/supervision.
Shallow Water = Core scuba risk factors still applicable. Drowning and lung-overexpansion injury still 100% relevant. Proper training, and application thereof, instrumental in mitigating existing risks, thus setting an overall risk parameter for the dive. Risk of DCS is considerably less in shallow water. Risk of drowning decreases, because the surface is a shorter time/distance travel away (CESA more likely chance of success).
Given the
same diver... more risk factors become prevalent as depth increases. More risk of DCS, air-depletion, narcosis etc. Chance of DCS less in a rapid ascent from 15', compared to 50' for a given bottom time. Slower air consumption reduces risk of accidental depletion through insufficient observation/awareness. More risk factors become prevalent if new, unfamiliar gear is used - development of experience, need for gear specific training/familiarization. So on, and so on.
As I said... "scuba diving" is a
sliding scale of risk... upon which varied parameters dictate a specific risk level unique to the diver and the dive undertaken.