The "incomplete data" you refer to is indeed a problem, but it is generally not the fault of science. Many have been calling for the acquisition of such data for decades. However, for a scientist to conduct such baseline studies requires funding. If the CDF&G has not seen fit to fund such studies, there isn't much the scientists can do.
We've gotten off on a good tangent here and it points outs one of the big issues regarding all of this.
The caveat for those who don't know is that I've been directly involved in the MLPAI since around 2003, and am an offcially apointed member of the Statewide Interests Group. This is one of the three main user-groups (the other two being the RSG and the SAT) driving the whole process and doing much of the work of crafting MPAs and initially recommending placemnt to the BRTF. I've been on all four of the SIGs so far for each of the four study regions.
First of all, don't lose sight of the fact that this is a POLITICAL process. It's transparent and DF&G and MLPAI staff bends over backwards to insure public access and input but it's still POLITICAL. Anyone who thinks it isn't is in for a rude awakening.
Now, just because it's POLITICAL, that's doesn't mean it's a bad thing. But what it means is that if you come into the process with a narrow point of view and you just want to argue that and hope you'll prevail, chances are you're going to be sorely disappointed. However, if you're willing to step back and view the larger picture and realize that the engine that drives all of this and which will make it manangeable is COMPROMISE, then you might emerge with your senses intact. "If you can live with this, I can live with that" goes a long way to forging alliances and making for a workable solution.
But there's also a lot of NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) going on. Closures and limited take is fine . . . except not in MY favorite spot.
But back to the science question, that's the biggest red herring around.
First of all, you have to decide if you'll accept "Citizen Science" (loike that from REEF and reef Check to mention two) or if you only want scientifically-validated data and studies. With the former, you'll get a large quantity of data that should be generally correct and can hopefully give you a good overview of general trends. It's like shooting with a wide-angle lens: You get a big picture but as you crop and zoom in, some of the details may become a little fuzzy.
Or you can only want scientifically-reliable data. The problem there is that while it may have a tremendsously high degree of accuracy and reliability in the data, it will be miniscule in volume and it's expensive to produce.
Now the poltiics come in to play. "We need another study" is a time-honored delaying tactic. Because if you're not in favor of something and you lack the votes to kill it, delaying it's implemntation is almost as good as killing it because you've at least bought more time until the next delyaing tactic can be implemented.
So those who have opposed the creation of MPAs (for whatever reason) can point to Citizin Science and call it "junk science" because it's not scientifically validated and peer-reviewed. And then they can look toward the scientifically-based studies and claim that there's either not enough of them to form a conclusion, or that the study was flawed (usually because it didn't support their position) and that another study is needed.
I remember being at one meeting where an anit-MPA guy was claiming that the BRTF refused to look at the study he submitted. That wasn't correct. They looked at the study but it was done by a special-interest group, had flawed data, and didn't meet peer-review. But it supported this guy's position. So when they said, "This isn't valid data," he heard that as "We won't listen to you."
In his closing speech before the formal vote, outgoing F&G Commissioner Richard Rogers said it best when he said (paraphrasing), "MPAs work. There are countless validated peer-reviewed studies showing they work. Stop wasting your time and ours arguing that they don't work."
Personally, I've got a very simply way of implementing the process but it'll never fly poltically. It's very simple: Every calendar year, you totally close to
ALL take (commercial & recreational) one Southern Channel Island and one Northern Channel Island. The other six you leave open with traditional fishery management regulations and catch limits (and already-pre-MLPAI-reserves) in place.
Enforcement becomes fairly easy. If Catalina's closed for this year, and you see someone taking anything, they're in violation. It's pretty much black-and-white. And by closing an entire area for one year still means there'd be access for the following three years so it's not like you're permanently closing something and denying access to people forever.
But like I said, doubtful this would ever fly politically.
Enough of my rambling . . . for now.
- Ken